Cold Front, Squall Line, Upslope, Wind

Tuesday December 3, 2024

Timing of the snow aspect of the event looks to occur near midnight tomorrow night and the brunt wrapped up around daylight or so Thursday. There will be a bit of snow prior to the time frame, and a bit occuring through Thursday afternoon in to Friday. That said, the 11pm Wednesday to 8am Thursday looks to be the window of the intense period beginning NW and sweeping across.

Personally I like 3-6″ totals for the event in the favored upslope zones with localized higher pops. The heavy aspect is not a long lived event. It’s a brief, but intense period of heavy snow. The brunt falls in that short window mentioned and from Thursday midday through Friday a.m an additional 1-3″ may occur at various rates.

Expect very poor travel in that window tomorrow night in to the day Thursday.

THE NWS WATCHES BELOW:

THE NWS EXPECTED AMOUNTS BELOW:

On the models

• GFS through 1pm Thursday

• GFS through 4pm Friday adding a bit of additional

• Euro through 1pm Thursday

• Euro through 4pm Friday with just a bit of additional

• Accompanying the event is strong gusty winds

Running the 18z Euro wind gust loop..often a bit overdone

• With temps like this below

• That accompanied by those strong winds, windchills will fall below 0 again across the high ground. Windchills below

To note, a all snow event across the high ground

Initially below 3000′- 3200′ surface temps may be just above freezing. With a steep lapse rate and lower levels that are not saturated, you’ll evaporative cooling to freezing at the surface very fast upon precip reaching the ground

• Next image, as lower level begin saturating, precip encroaching

• Next image, the window of the heaviest snow.bam, temps fall in to the upper 20s.

Those images modeled off the Euro for the Garrett County Airport at 2933′.