SNOW/WIND MEETING BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA

December 4, 2024

Before we hop to the incoming event, let’s start with this morning. A beautiful sunrise near Bittinger below

• Those early morning temps ranging from the single digits in those southern Allegheny Mountain valleys that went clear and calm overnight. You’ll see in the images below, to many areas of teens and some low 20s elsewhere.

• Under SW winds today we mild up a bit ahead of the incoming cold front in to the 30s.

Now, for the Blizzard Warnings in place

What is a blizzard warning. Thoughts may go to the Blizzard of 93′, January 96′, Sandy, or even a few weeks ago. The actual criteria for a blizzard warning does not require an extreme event such as those. While Blizzard Warnings have been infrequently used in the past, by definition they could have been used much more in our recent past. So do not become confused with it being issued more frequently now based off the criteria. In reality, that criteria alone could have lead to a hundred blizzard warnings since the turn of the century and we’ve only had a handful. It really wasn’t used to the the actual definition of the criteria needed. Now it is. Thats a change. Not that blizzards are increasing.

by definition:

So this event should meet the criteria needed. It’s not the blizzard of 93 or an event keeping you housebound for a week. Actually by next week this time, very few remains may be seen.

The areas in the warning below:

THE NWS EXPECTED AMOUNTS:

Personally I still like the 3-6″ tonight in to daylight Thursday. The brunt of that occuring between midnight and 8am. Some does occur prior and after that period. Through Friday an additional 1-3″. So my thoughts are slightly lower, but overall in the general ballpark.

Modeling doesn’t put out an abundance of liquid(which will be snow, all snow)

• The 6GFS through 8am Thursday. .25 to .45. Ratios initially start 9-12 to 1 and increase .

• Precip totals off the 6z GFS through Friday pm. Another .1 to .2. Given ratios another 2-4″ potentially off the GFS with ratios around 20+ to 1.

• The 6z EURO, similarities to the GFS.

• Through Friday pm.. it’s a bit less rambunctious on additional amounts. .02 to .1. So .5 to 2.0″ additional.

• That translates to these snowfall maps off the models

-6z GFS

-6z Euro

• Again, snowfall output isn’t anything that’s going to wow. The intense period will make for poor travel tonight, and the wind plus snowfall will create poor visibility. When the brief period of intense snowfall passes by, wind and snowshowers will still create poor visibility at times and expect roadways, even some main roads to stay snowcovered Thursday with falling temps. Temps/wind combo will also create low windchills. As seen below off the Euro

-TEMPS

-Wind

-Windchills(grey = below 0)

Be prepared and stay tuned to your local NWS for updates and the Facebook page will be updated regularly.