A TOUCH MILDER, RAIN, THEN MIDWEEK SNOW?

December 8, 2024 6:54am

First out the door this morning, on a “milder” but very windy morning. A wind advisory out in Tucker, but windy throughout the Alleghenies.

Temps are on the 30s. With the exception of some of those deeper valleys, especially in the southern Alleghenies that have not seen the gusty winds kick in and with those calm conditions under clear skies, that area radiational cooling overnight allowing the valleys to get cold and hold.

• Winds have hit 60mph at Bear Rocks this morning

Area cams showing the winds. From the water at Deep Creek, some shaking at Timberline, to snow blowing across at the Divide on 33. Those low dewpoints, in spite of temps, still allow the snow to remain powdery enough to blow. Even in the mid to upper 30s. So if you’re in a wind prone area, you still likely have areas of blowing snow.

Moving ahead. Winds tend to weaken through the day and more so overnight. Cloud cover will encroach overnight as the winds die. Precipitation begins to push in tomorrow morning around daybreak.

It’s worth watching for some low protected valleys. Especially east side of the Alleghenies there is the potential for there to be some brief pockets of freezing rain initially to start. The clear skies and calm winds will allow those areas to chill off, and if precip gets in early enough tomorrow it can occur before those temps rise above freezing. That’s not a lock, but a possibility.

• Lets look at the morning model runs for the coming week starting with the 6z GFS
• The incoming rain Monday in to Monday night looks like a general .3 to .6 event
• Incoming Tuesday-Wednesday looks like an additional .3 to .75 event
• GFS is more bullish on the snowfall after the transition. This aspect will likely flucuate run to run the next 2 days. GFS snow map at the end of the video

• Temps off the GFS. Shows the early week mild shot being replaced by colder air working back in Wednesday. Other modeling much the same. That too is accompanied by wind, sending windchills back below 0 in areas Thursday morning

• Now the 6z EURO.
• Rain pushing in Monday and amounts very similar to the GFS by Tuesday morning. .3 to .6. (Video pauses at these intervals)
• Next Wave off the Euro is a bit faster, weaker vs the GFS and is zipping off the coast. Rainfall .25 to .50 before transition
• Snowfall amounts much lower off the Euro

• Throwing in the Canadian
• Rain pushing in Monday. Amounts similar
• Tuesday to Wednesday it’s very similar to the GFS. Rainfall slightly more amped up
• Transition to snow and amounts similar to the GFS

Updates over the coming days as the midweek system begins to become more clear.