Rain to snow and a rapid freeze up

December 10, 2024

The cold pattern relaxed, replaced by a milder surge, some rain and soon will briefly flip back cold, with a strong cold push that catches the back edge of the precipitation Wednesday. That changes rain to snow. Accumulations look rather light, enough to cause slick travel though. Wednesday pm will feature strong winds and a rapid freeze up, especially through the overnight.

Out the door this morning, temps are running mainly 30s, 40s. Some clear skies in areas allowing the valleys to drop off. The northern Canaan station down to 29° this morning.

A view from the top of Timberline this morning off their webcam below

8am Temps 12/10/24 below

Cloud cover will be pushing back through the area this morning with showers following soon after.

A look at the models-

• First the 6z GFS
• Rain increasing overnight in to Wednesday
• Rain to Snow Wednesday. First across the Wv High Ground and to the Mason Dixon around late morning/ midday give or take.
• Rainfall amounts .4 to .8 with localized higher pops

-Rainfall through changeover

-Snowfall off the GFS

– Incoming cold push then a relaxtion

-Windchills Thursday morning

• 6z Euro
• very similar to the GFS
• Rain increasing through the pm hours in to Wednesday a.m
• Rain to Snow, First the Wv high ground and a rapid changeover mid to late morning/midday. Sometimes these occurrences happen faster than modeled
• rainfall amounts prior to changeover .5 to 1.0

-Euro rainfall amounts below

-Snowfall Amounts off the Euro

– Temps off the Euro, the cold push then a relaxation, but not quite as much as the GFS

-Winds Wednesday pm(these continue through Thursday)

• NWS SNOWFALL OUTLOOK

• IN SUMMARY ON THE WINTER ASPECT

A general 1-3″ likely with favored locations 2-5″. Upslope behind the system is limited with rapidly incoming dry colder air

Rapid Freeze Up

Strong gusty winds Wednesday-Thursday (advisories may be issued)

Temps in the teens by Thursday morning, Wv high ground upper single digits. Windchills below 0 for many above 2500′ with -10 to -18 windchills across the high exposed Wv tops

Temps modified Friday

With the cold, dry high sitting just NE by Sunday, never rule out wintry potential with that setup. A wedge setup may very well be in play.