Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain/Rain
December 15, 2024 7:14am
Moisture incoming. The leading edge is running in to dry air. Virga=not reaching the ground. It’s simply working
1 to moisten the lower levels(it has in some areas, especially southern Alleghenies and west side)
2 some evaporational cooling will occur as it does
- We have the big cold dry strong High pressure in New England
- A visual of the winds at the surface around that
- 5000′ aloft winds out of the SW, milder and moist. Once you are across the high ground west of the wedge over the Allegheny Front, this influence is dominant.
and up in Pa
- Temps through the day off the Euro
- Using the HRRR Precip type. Last year it showed marked improvements. Nothing however will be exact. The sleet/freezing rain zone can wobble east or west.
- The snow zone I really like Frostburg, Cumberland, Bedford for 2-5″/3-6. Modeling puts out .6 liquid and the brunt occurs in believe there as snow. We shall see.
-The HRRR snowfall. Western portion and southern portion i think mixes in more sleet to limit totals. Definitely like the areas me times above. Remember to watch that Blue Knob cam today
HRRR sleet. I think any portion of this sleet zone leans more freezing rain. How much sleet occurs will impact ice accretion. Sleet gets recorded as snow, ice gets recorded as ice accretion
The HRRR limits freezing rain too much and other modeling looks over done. The euro below. The west edge of this goes to plain rain today. Melt off. The highest totals in here, saw in half.
- THE NWS WARNINGS
what I dislike about this. Allegany County Md will have much more wintry impact vs portions of Eastern Tucker in the winter storm warning. Much more than eastern Randolph. Same goes for Bedford. It looks more severe across the highest locations, even west of the Allegheny Front and it won’t be.
Allegheny Mountains Weather 