Not All Gloom, There Is Hope….

December 18, 2024 8:51am

The much hyped “Warm” Christmas is by no means a lock. It’s not to say it won’t end up being mild. In a progressive pattern, a week out in the modeling world is long time. Just 2 days ago modeling went well above normal Christmas to New Years and while not cold, it’s backed off considerably.

There are plenty of flys in that ointment. Lets look at the first thing that should make you pump the breaks on warmth. Thats a very cold departing High Pressure Christmas morning sitting in New England. Any time you see that this time of the year, the risk of over running and cold air damming will exist.

That’s a cold dry high. Modeled temps a week out(and this could significantly change) are below 0 across New England.

• Lets put the temps in motion off the Euro. Cold through the weekend in to early next week. A bit of moderation by Christmas, but not all that warm. 30s mainly across the high ground on Christmas. Again a week out, plenty on time to see this adjust.

• 0z Euro

• The 6z GFS temps. Very similar.

▪︎ Precip, any snow chances pre Christmas. Yes. Modeling has slightly increased the upslope this weekend. The Euro holds 1-3, for areas outside the WV high ground, and 3-6 over the Wv high ground and also brings in a little potential Christmas Eve. The GFS is a bit more bullish on 3-6″ this weekend. Each hint at some over running on Christmas day. Meaning a little mix/freezing rain potential, as well as a cold rain potential. Stressing a week out.

• The 0z Euro

• the 6z GFS

• The 8-14 map. You may see that and just think there is no way, it’s warm everywhere.

1▪︎ this map is a 7 day map from 12/25 to 12/31.

2▪︎ this map is a “probability” map of above average temperatures. It is not a temperature map. Its not an anomaly map. It’s a probability of above normal. Not how much above normal. Example- If a area has a average min of 19 and max of 35 and mins run 24 and the max runs 34. That’s above normal. Many locations can see wintry precip in December through February with above normal temps. Just to put that hype in perspective.

Next point, here is the 6-10 day which runs the 6 day period of 12/23 to 12/27. When you look at the overlapping period. You’d suspect departing cold right around Christmas. New data isn’t as warm(again not cold) from Christmas to New Years. A few days ago modeling ran 50s to 60. Now 30s, 40s, maybe a 50.

So, in recap

• Turning colder today. Rain ends as flakes. Little if any accumulation.
• Accumulation potential as we head in to the weekend
• Dry and cold the second half of the weekend and to start next week
• Some precip on the moderating trend Christmas eve and Christmas day and that may very well be cold enough for wet snow, mix, freezing rain or a cold rain

• While not much and not a strong parameter of modeling. Models hold a bit of snow cover on the ground Christmas morning

So don’t write it off as brown and warm Christmas just yet. Cold highs north can have other plans.

Will post more between now and next Wednesday, Christmas Day. Tis the season.