Wet and Mild, to Cold and Wild??

December 28, 2024 7:21am

A mild start to this Saturday, only lingering pockets of cool air trapped in the valleys this morning that will be wiped out this morning.

How about the high pressure to the North East that held off the mild weather for parts of the area for all of Christmas week.

▪︎Showers lingering this morning, overall a fairly inactive Saturday.

▪︎Temps ranging 30s to low 50s this morning with 40s for most. Some valleys clinging to the last remnants of the chilly air

▪︎ Temps today upper 40s to mid 50s across the area

▪︎Rainfall amounts through Monday a.m. Now the second bout of rain is primarily Sunday pm and overnight

▪︎0z Euro

▪︎ 6z GFS

▪︎ Now something I rarely do, simply because long range modeling in general is not very good. There currently is agreement on a much colder look at least through Mid January after we cross in to the New Year. Much variability remain in how extreme the cold push is. The 0z EURO overnight was extreme. So, while extremely cold is hard on some things and many folks do not like the extreme cold for obvious reasons, we really could use it in areas for some invasive pest such as the hemlock wooly adelgid have flourished the past 2 years. The extreme cold of 13/14, 14/15 caused a major die back, then a recovery with only lighter die backs since with limited extreme cold pushes.

▪︎ So we open the 0 to 5 day period looking like the image on the left. The day 10-15 period on the right.

▪︎ Let’s run the modeled temps off the 0z Euro. The GFS is cold but not quite this cold on its latest run. It has also had very cold runs as well.

▪︎ Precip off the model shows plenty of activity during the period as well. Which transitions after a coastal system around the 6th that may need watched. Very far out for details on precip

In summary

• Mild, also wet weekend with a large portion of the rain though Sunday pm in to Sunday night
• Rain could end as a few high elevation Wv flakes Monday.
• Rain to Snow in to the New Year
• Then we watch colder air and a potential coastal event wayyyy out there around the 6th
• That’s potentially followed by an extreme cold surge. Anything this far out is subject to plenty of variability.