Turning Mild and Wet Before A Return To Winter

Turning Mild and Wet Before A Return To Winter

December 26, 2024 7:11am

After many locations saw some snow cover for Christmas Day, enough to go in to the books as a white Christmas, any of that snow still lingering will quickly melt. The milder incoming weather this weekend will be accompanied by multiple bouts of rain.

As always, let’s begin with the morning temps.

▪︎ Out the door temps this morning for 12/26/24 at 7am. Valley 20s, and high ground 30s. Indicative of the milder air incoming.

Temps today will see the milder surge up west of the Alleghenies, over the Alleghenies and east, still milder than normal, but holding cooler as you progress northeast.

■Temperatures

▪︎ First a look at Temps off the 6z GFS

▪︎ A look off the 0z Euro. The Euro tries to get a little more cold air briefly wrapped in behind the Sunday bout of rain to see a brief changeover to snow late Sunday night/Monday morning across the high ground.

■Precipitation

▪︎ 6 hourly precip timing off the 6z Euro

▪︎ 6 hourly precip timing off the 0z GFS

■Rainfall amounts

▪︎6z GFS Precipitation Amounts

▪︎0z Euro Precipitation Amounts

▪︎ Excessive Rainfall Outlook. That will need to be watched for Sunday. Rainfall amounts and rates could force some smaller streams out of bank full.

■Down The Road

▪︎The 8-15 day look off the ensembles

First the 0z Euro

▪︎The 6z GFS

■ Colder times ahead. How extreme? Plenty of model variation on that aspect.

December 25, 2024

December 25, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

🎄🎄🎄🎄CHRISTMAS DAY🎄🎄🎄🎄

Dec 25(Wed)

Mainly cloudy, some high ground fog a.m. Below freezing accompanied those areas.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip T

SF 0

SD 2 7am

Dyacon Data Below

Towards Bowman Hill morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Towards Bowman Hill afternoon
South end Amish Rd afternoon

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop bp

Climate Reference Network Canaan

  • Station remains down/offline

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Sods Plateau

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill Creek at North craft

Town Hill

Martin’s Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Amish Rd
Amish Rd
Amish Rd
Amish Rd
Amish Rd
Amish Rd
Amish Rd

Webcams

MERRY CHRISTMAS

MERRY CHRISTMAS

December 25, 2024 6:59am

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas! Snow on the ground for many across the Alleghenies on this Christmas morning. A week ago many didn’t think that would be the case. Snow on the ground always adds to the festive feel of the day.

Temps out there this morning, really remain nearly unchanged from yesterday. Some areas have not seen over a degree variance since yesterday morning at this time.

  • Temps today not rising a whole lot.

■ Morning Views

Deep Creek

Timberline

Canaan Resort

Canaan Ski

Spruce Knob view

Snowshoe

Mt.Davis

Blue Knob

Mainly cloudy today with the low cloud deck mainly holdingnin place.

Enjoy your Christmas …..

December 24,2024

December 24, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 24(Tues)

A.M snow until around dawn, that transitioned to snizzle, freezing drizzle, freezing mist mainly above 2700′.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip .14

Year To Date total Precip

SF 1.3

SD 2.5-3″

Snowfall season to date 29.3″

Dyacon Data Below

Foxtown Rd morning
Foxtown Rd morning
West of Bittinger morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Foxtown Rd morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Old Cherry Glade church morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Towards Bowman Hill morning
South end Amish Rd morning

Garrett County Airport

3:10am just beginning Mosser Rd
4am Mosser Rd
6am Mosser Rd
Mosser Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd morning
State Park Rd morning
State Park Rd morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
Deep Creek Lake morning

Top of Wisp

Morning
Webcam

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop bp

Climate Reference Network Canaan

  • Station remains offline

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Whitegrass cam Cabin Mt

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

snow depth increase of 1.5 to 2.5

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland area

To Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Amish Rd

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Flintstone to Polish Mt

Town Hill

Breezewood

Webcams

December 23, 2024

December 23, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 23(Mon)

Sun, clouds after a clear very cold valley start. A fairly significant temp variation across the area today. View data below

Bittinger 2NW Valley

SD 1.5

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Foxtown Rd afternoon
West of Bittinger afternoon
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
West of Bittinger evening

The Glades

■afternoon pics

Garrett County Airport

Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Deep Creek lake Mchenry afternoon
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Rock Lodge Rd afternoon

Top of Wisp

  • Station down
Afternoon
Afternoon

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop bp

Climate Reference Network Canaan

  • Station remains offline

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Canaan Ski area
Whitegrass Ski cam Cabin Mt

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill Creek at North craft

Town Hill

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Annoying was the answer

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Amish Rd

Oakland

Christmas Week Is Upon Us….

Christmas Week Is Upon Us….

December 23, 2024 7:01am

Christmas Week has come. From the chatter last week that how “warm” the weather was going to be ahead of and for Christmas, it’s playing out not that bad for those(🤚)needing a bit of wintry signs to add to the festive feel of the season.

Lets start with this morning.

Temps are plenty cold out there this morning with valley temps running just below 0 to the single digits. Teens, to twenty on the tops.

■Going forward, temps today running above freezing for most, however that occurs with a bone dry air mass and a low sun angle. That limits melt outside of direct sunny areas.

Overnight temps hold steady or even rise ahead of the moisture. That 2 to 4 hour snow window comes in and exits early Tuesday morning. .5 to 1.5 looks to be the snowfall range off modeling, then a transition to light freezing drizzle possible and that’s the main reason Winter Weather Advisories are up.

HRRR BELOW

EURO BELOW

GFS BELOW

The limited window of snow, then transitions in to snizzle and freezing drizzle as the brief may but limited snow period ends.

■ Winter Weather Advisory areas. These are again, mainly for that potential transition after some light snow occurs.

The DGZ dries out rapidly, lower levels look to stay saturated and freezing mist, drizzle can glaze surfaces.

■ GFS 7AM SNOW DEPTH CHRISTMAS MORNING

  • Weather With Mike

December 22, 2024

December 22, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 22(Sun)

Areas of a.m fluff falling that gave way to sun and clouds

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip +

SF 1.0

Event total 3.3

SD 2.5

Season to date total snowfall 28.0

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Station remains offline.

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop bp

Climate Reference Network Canaan

oddly the CRN remains offline

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill

Polish Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Amish Rd near 3000′
Amish Rd
Amish Rd
Amish Rd near Rt 40 just east of Keysers Ridge
Amish Rd/Rt 40
The Cassleman
Cassleman Bridge
Penn Alps
Penn Alps
Penn Alps
Penn Alps-Stantons Mill
Hilltop
Sideling Hill in the far distance

Webcams

7Springs

December 21, 2024

December 21, 2024

  • First Day of Winter

On to the regularly scheduled daily post

Forest Service Cam offline 6/24/21

Dec 21(Sat)

Areas of snow, heavy bands. The haves and have nots. Some periods of broken blue sky as well.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip +

SF 2.3

SD 2.3 5pm

Snowfall season to date 27.0″

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Towards Bowman Hill morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

no data, station down

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop BP

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Station down

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

■Photos below by Sami Kahn

Webcam view below :

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

  • Anemometers frozen except Bear Rocks

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martin’s Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Rocky Gap

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Webcams

December 20, 2024

December 20, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/21/24

Dec 20(Fri)

Some light a.m snow, then mainly cloudy with some scattered pockets of snow.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip .01

Year to date total precip

SF .1

SD .2 7am

Season to date Snowfall 24.7″

Dyacon Data Viewer

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
South end of Amish Rd afternoon

Garrett County Airport

Mchenry morning
Rock Lodge Rd morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
Sand Flat Rd morning
Ditto
Ditto

Top of Wisp

Station down- no data. Rooftop stations impact data and make maintenence tougher. The EMA getting all this grant money for these poorly sited stations and half no longer work.

Afternoon back side

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop BP

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500 Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

Over Snaggy
Over the Mt to-

The Yough at Sang Run

Oakland

Towards 135 on Sand Flat
Morning

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Flintstone to Polish Mt

Town Hill

Webcams

Winter Weather Advisories out and also touch of Christmas Eve Snow??

Winter Weather Advisories out and also touch of Christmas Eve Snow?

December 20, 2024 8:14am

Let’s begin with the current conditions at 8am 12/20/24

Temps- Mainly 20s across the high ground, and 30-32° as you get to some of the lower areas.

Radar- pretty light stuff this morning, but enough to coat any untreated roads.

▪︎Rock Lodge Rd, Garrett County 7:45am

The better slug of precip looks to cross the southern Alleghenies later/overnight. The Weather Service out with Winter Weather Advisories, Randolph County and south in the Alleghenies and on down the higher Appalachians.

NWS Expected Multi Day tally.

Tonights batch looks to do best in the southern Alleghenies and then on Saturday, watch the for potential of a few high ratio lake bands north. Not a lot of moisture associated with them, just high ratio fluff.

A look at the GFS which I ran through Christmas Day. Watching that potential of a bit of snow Christmas Eve. Euro and Canadian models similar, but with their own variances.

-temps off the GFS

Modeled Snow Depth 7am Christmas (model does not consider many localized factors)

Not a strong part of the modeling parameters. They do try to hold a little snow cover for Wednesday at 7am, Christmas Day.
– the snow we have coming is of little mass. Meaning there is little holding power. It is falling on cold ground, during the lowest sun angle period of the year and dewpoints remain low Monday. That helps limit melt in aress that pick up a few inches.
– Tuesdays event, minimal event, but as of now a potential of 1″ possibly 2″ of wet snow. Occuring with temps low to mid 30s. So you’d expect a bit of melt of what falls and what is on the ground in areas that pick up some snow.
– the GFS breaks clouds up enough Tuesday night to allow temps to drop back im the teens and 20s Christmas morning. Euro keeps clouds socked in, temps steady upper 20s, low 30s.
– so given that, if we can get some of these snow aspects today-Saturday to work out, and again Tuesday, some areas definitely have the potential for some white on the ground Christmas morning.
– Temps on Christmas look to hold mainly 30s at this point.
– overall not cold next week beyond Christmas. Things actually look to dry out once we get past the Christmas eve precip. Temps remain maxes upper 30s to mid 40s, mins upper 20s to lower 30s. Not cold, but also not that terribly mild.