A bit of light snow, and freezing drizzle/mist overnight. Touch of high elevation rime as well. Mainly cloudy for most today Canaan area and north. Some sun broke out south.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .16
SF .2
Season to date 24.6
dyacon data below
Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Clear cold valley start. A rapid clouding up and showers mid to late morning. Some protected valleys, just briefly below freezing as it started. Rain to flakes after dark.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .38″+
Year to date total precip 51.70
SF 0
SD T
Year to date total snowfall 24.4
Dyacon Data Below
West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning, clouds rapidly incoming West of Bittinger morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon West of Bittinger evening Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd morning Mchenry evening
Top of Wisp
Afternoon Evening
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data due to mid October bear attack on the station
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
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Site Comparison
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground cold spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Some of that leading edge occured briefly with some valleys below freezing
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
The much hyped “Warm” Christmas is by no means a lock. It’s not to say it won’t end up being mild. In a progressive pattern, a week out in the modeling world is long time. Just 2 days ago modeling went well above normal Christmas to New Years and while not cold, it’s backed off considerably.
There are plenty of flys in that ointment. Lets look at the first thing that should make you pump the breaks on warmth. Thats a very cold departing High Pressure Christmas morning sitting in New England. Any time you see that this time of the year, the risk of over running and cold air damming will exist.
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That’s a cold dry high. Modeled temps a week out(and this could significantly change) are below 0 across New England.
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Lets put the temps in motion off the Euro. Cold through the weekend in to early next week. A bit of moderation by Christmas, but not all that warm. 30s mainly across the high ground on Christmas. Again a week out, plenty on time to see this adjust.
0z Euro
The 6z GFS temps. Very similar.
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▪︎ Precip, any snow chances pre Christmas. Yes. Modeling has slightly increased the upslope this weekend. The Euro holds 1-3, for areas outside the WV high ground, and 3-6 over the Wv high ground and also brings in a little potential Christmas Eve. The GFS is a bit more bullish on 3-6″ this weekend. Each hint at some over running on Christmas day. Meaning a little mix/freezing rain potential, as well as a cold rain potential. Stressing a week out.
The 0z Euro
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the 6z GFS
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The 8-14 map. You may see that and just think there is no way, it’s warm everywhere.
1▪︎ this map is a 7 day map from 12/25 to 12/31.
2▪︎ this map is a “probability” map of above average temperatures. It is not a temperature map. Its not an anomaly map. It’s a probability of above normal. Not how much above normal. Example- If a area has a average min of 19 and max of 35 and mins run 24 and the max runs 34. That’s above normal. Many locations can see wintry precip in December through February with above normal temps. Just to put that hype in perspective.
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Next point, here is the 6-10 day which runs the 6 day period of 12/23 to 12/27. When you look at the overlapping period. You’d suspect departing cold right around Christmas. New data isn’t as warm(again not cold) from Christmas to New Years. A few days ago modeling ran 50s to 60. Now 30s, 40s, maybe a 50.
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So, in recap
Turning colder today. Rain ends as flakes. Little if any accumulation.
Accumulation potential as we head in to the weekend
Dry and cold the second half of the weekend and to start next week
Some precip on the moderating trend Christmas eve and Christmas day and that may very well be cold enough for wet snow, mix, freezing rain or a cold rain
While not much and not a strong parameter of modeling. Models hold a bit of snow cover on the ground Christmas morning
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So don’t write it off as brown and warm Christmas just yet. Cold highs north can have other plans.
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Will post more between now and next Wednesday, Christmas Day. Tis the season.
Some clouds early, lots of sun increasing north to south by afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Precip .16 Year to date 51.32
SF 0, SD T Snowfall season to date 24.4
dyacon data below
–Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoonBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Sand Flat Rd morning Sand Flat Rd morning
Top of Wisp
Afternoon Afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Whitegrass Cabin Mt
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Timberline
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data due to Mid October bear attack on the station
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Depending on location. Some areas with a icy start. Some a wet start. Some dry. Some mild. Some cold
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .48
year to date precip 51.16
SF 0
SD .5
Snowfall season to date 24.4″
total ice accretion .25 to .3
Dyacon Data Below
Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Old Cherry Glade Church morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW morning Bittinger 2NW morning-east facing field edgeBittinger 2NW morning Bittinger 2NW morning Bittinger 2NW morning Bittinger 2NW morning Bittinger 2NW morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning experimental fridge spotBittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Towards Bowman Hill morning
The Glades
Morning pics
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––East facing field edge Peat Moss Rd
Garrett County Airport
Mchenry morning -no iceMchenry morning –
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
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Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no data due to mid October bear attack on the station
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Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
-Site Comparison
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
NOW THE WEDGE SNOW/SLEET RESULTS( a bit of the light western edge was on the ground pre event)
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Grantsville to Savage Mt
From mostly bare ground Grantsville, to a slight coating of ice at Hilltop area, a increase of ice from Meadow Mt and east and sleet+ice accretion at Savage Mt. Sleet accumulation appeared around .5 to .8, ice around .2 to .4. Irregular ice accretion that appeared strongly likely due to riming early Sunday that began to take on freezing rain and that always makes it irregular as the rain soaks in and freezes.
–––––––Touch of ice, hilltop –They reported 1″ of snow accumulation that did not occur–Ice increased at Meadow Mt––––
Finzel Swamp
Side stop atop Savage Mt at Finzel Swamp
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Frostburg
After early ice, a sleet, snow zone, with late ice. Accumulations looked like 1.5 to 2″(eye test guess)
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Lavale to Cumberland
Appeared around 2.5″ +/- Lavale, maybe a touch less Cumberland. This would have shrunk a bit since max as temp was 35. Early glaze ice to sleet, to dominant snow ending as little rain.
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Rocky Gap to Martin’s Mt
After glaze ice early yesterday. To snow and appear like 2-3″ , especially over the top
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Flintstone to Polish Mt
A 2 to 3″ looked like the norm here
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15 Mile Creek to Green Ridge
Amounts looked like 2-3″ through this zone.
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Town Hill
A solid 3″ here
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Buck Valley to Amaranth
2-3″ zone
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Webcams
33 east of Harman in the milder sector this morning Blue Knob saw dominant precip period as snow. A guy up there guestimated 3-4″ last evening Town Hill Fulton CountyMd/pa border
Cloudy, areas of freezing rain, sleet, snow, rain. Not a major event, that needs noted. It was on the heels of a cold period so it impacted roadways significantly though. A extreme glaze as it started in many parts of the area.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Precip +(will melt event in morning)
SF .1(sleet)
SD 1
snowfall season to date 24.4
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW afternoon Bittinger 2NW afternoon Bittinger 2NW afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
In what was primarily a rain event Cabin Mt west. A few brief periods of flakes occured
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refue
Mt.Davis
no data due to mid October bear attack on the station
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Town Hill
Martin’s Mt
Glazing in process
Cumberland to Lavale
initial temps above freezing Cumberland, freezing rain glaze returning Lavale to Frostburg
Frostburg
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Savage Mt to Grantsville
–-freezing Rain plus rime occuring –––Amish Rd, Glazed…County roads has NOT been on the ball with cinders this year. Operating like Garrett County is in the poor house. ––
Moisture incoming. The leading edge is running in to dry air. Virga=not reaching the ground. It’s simply working
1 to moisten the lower levels(it has in some areas, especially southern Alleghenies and west side)
2 some evaporational cooling will occur as it does
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We have the big cold dry strong High pressure in New England
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A visual of the winds at the surface around that
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5000′ aloft winds out of the SW, milder and moist. Once you are across the high ground west of the wedge over the Allegheny Front, this influence is dominant.
–Bear Rocks 26, Bald Knob 34. I’d expect Baldy to drop awhile as precip gets going. –
and up in Pa
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Temps through the day off the Euro
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Using the HRRR Precip type. Last year it showed marked improvements. Nothing however will be exact. The sleet/freezing rain zone can wobble east or west.
The snow zone I really like Frostburg, Cumberland, Bedford for 2-5″/3-6. Modeling puts out .6 liquid and the brunt occurs in believe there as snow. We shall see.
-The HRRR snowfall. Western portion and southern portion i think mixes in more sleet to limit totals. Definitely like the areas me times above. Remember to watch that Blue Knob cam today
HRRR sleet. I think any portion of this sleet zone leans more freezing rain. How much sleet occurs will impact ice accretion. Sleet gets recorded as snow, ice gets recorded as ice accretion
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The HRRR limits freezing rain too much and other modeling looks over done. The euro below. The west edge of this goes to plain rain today. Melt off. The highest totals in here, saw in half.
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THE NWS WARNINGS
what I dislike about this. Allegany County Md will have much more wintry impact vs portions of Eastern Tucker in the winter storm warning. Much more than eastern Randolph. Same goes for Bedford. It looks more severe across the highest locations, even west of the Allegheny Front and it won’t be.
Winter Storm Watches have expanded for Sunday, we’ll go to that in a moment. First out the door conditions this morning
A very cold start this morning across the area valleys, and “less cold” on the ridgetops.
▪︎Temps mainly teens to upper 20s and low 30s on the high Wv ridges out there on this Saturday morning.
Davis at 12, Bearden Knob 30, 9 at the Valley station and 30 on Cabin Mt–
Views on the morning:
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A fairly tranquil Saturday in place. Temps remaining cold across the high ground and east. Milder west. That theme continues Sunday with the incoming weather event. That weather event had watches and advisories out across the region. I strongly expect these to expand east in some form or fashion. A bit shocked that they are not already as THATS the prime zone. Some of the area under watches may see limited impact, and areas currently without a much more significant impact.
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Surface Map Sunday Morning
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-afternoon
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That cold dry High, clockwise winds funneling in cold dry air at the surface.
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All the while the encroaching Low with counter clockwise winds pushing milder, moist air up and over the surface cold.
5000′ winds and temps below
A visual of the Wedge
As the dry cold air rises it cools up the Allegheny Front, evaporational cooling occurs as well.
The wedge gets more shallow and eventually dissappear as you go west under the entire column is above freezing. Eventually the mild air takes over the highest areas of the Allegheny Front, leaving the 2800-3000 sector north the coldest. Then the final step will see all the high ground rise to 35-40 while the low protected valleys east, while above freezing remain chilled the longest.
Lets do a side by side. The surface temps left, 5000′ temps right. Look at that. At 5000′ winds from the low pressure out of the SW. Look at the temps at 5000′ . Now compare to the left, winds at the surface out of the ESE undercutting and riding up the Allegheny Front and wedging west. That wedge gets narrower and narrower as you go west.
The areas you see surface to 5000′ above freezing would be rain. Areas you see 5000′ above freezing and the surface below, you’d see sleet or freezing rain depending the depth of the warm and cold layer. Areas you see both layers cold, the column would support snow. That’s mainly eastern Alleghenies and east of the Allegheny Front. I really like that Cumberland to Bedford to Altoona thump.
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A look at the soundings displays the above visual
-Garrett County Airport. Mild surge aloft. Cold at the surface. Again the surface here can run 28 with sleet or freezing rain while Cumberland is 32,33 and snow. Thats not uncommon. That’s how Cumberland can mostly escape ice as you have the column cold enough for snow, and as the upper air warms enough, the surface is just above freezing when the snow transitions over.
Garrett County Airport below
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-Cumberland, the column holding below freezing.
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The visual off the 6z Euro
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Snowfall off the 6z Euro
The southern area may be suspect, often mild enough layer will work in aloft to change that to sleet.
Sleet zone off the 6z Euro
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Freezing Rain zone off the Euro and likely the western edge of this is brief before the flip to straight rain. Amounts are generally over done on models.
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Again, using the Euro as it looks most like the climatology of these setups as far as precip type boundaries. Other modeling is veering that way. The HRRR is a bit colder and if that played out, the snow would work a bit further west. Adjustments are likely.
Allegheny Mountains Weather 