In To February We Go With A New Version Of Winter

February 1, 2025 5:21am

■1- After a long cold January that was book ended by a departing mild air on midnight of the New Year and we ended with milder air the last 2 days of the month. We were dominated most of the month by cold northwest flow and high ratio snows. High ratio meaning, lots of accumulation, limited moisture and depths often settled back rapidly after each fluff event.

■2- Now we are off in to February with a new version of winter. We have the resistance of a developed southeast ridge, we have cold that will push against that ridge. Lows will form on the boundary and with the ridge in place, the low track will allow for surges of milder SW flow(especially aloft) with low level cold holding, then departing as mild air works in, followed by a new colder push. We are really in the battle zone the next few weeks. This often leads to over running events. Mixed events that often feature freezing rain, some sleet across our classic cold air damming locations. In general it’s not a pattern that bodes well for snow in the WV high country without a stronger cold push to establish the boundary far enough south to allow these event to primarily be snow.

■ 3- Let’s look at the 0z GFS. I think finally modeling is starting to settle in on a pattern as they really struggled this past week with the transition. 30° swings in the models every 6 hours on days just several days away. While there still is variances, that has closed in. Now the 0z GFS

● First up the 2m Temps

• Notice around on apps, and other forecast its mostly a mild forecast for Sunday. However for some, that colder air holds on until after nightfall Sunday. So with today’s maxes occured last night after midnight and for some , tomorrow’s maxes won’t occur until near midnight Monday a.m. That will mean a mostly cold weekend. If you’re from Bittinger to Finzel and north-northeast Sunday it may just feel downright cold.

• Cold easterly flow. A look at the Euro off Ventusky going in to Sunday afternoon at Garrett County. Some areas will be mild, some areas hold on to the colder air longer. Again, that eases as we push overnight. For the duration of the weekend though its cold.

■4- We all turn milder in to Monday. 40s, low 50s. This is ahead of the next colder push for Tuesday. That cold oozes in north to south. So while we enter Tuesday at midnight in the 40s, the daytime should see temps bleed back in to the 30s. That cold air gets established and looks to be in place for the next precipitation event Wednesday.

• Wednesday afternoon per 0z GFS

• A look at the wind off the ventusky site. Low level colder east wind.

▪︎East Flow, low level cold air courtesy of the high pressures passing north, lows off to the SW. This looks to be a pattern on repeat.

■ 5- That leads to a over running precipitation event that should feature some freezing rain in the classic cold air damming locations. Some sleet where the cold layer is a bit thicker and some snow north(maybe Blue Knob)where the vertical profile could remain cold enough. Those are details that will change as modeling gets closer.

■ 6- playing the entire 6z GFS run out. You’ll see the ebs and flows of these over running events. Going in to Thursday, milder surge, as that passes a colder push, repeat. Eventually we may get enough push to get some of these back to the snowier side. That’s a tough sell at the moment as we have to watch how the battle zone the next 10+ days plays out.

■ 7- In summary

• Cold push – mix event – rain with the milder surge – cold push – mix event – rain with the milder surge.
• This week the milder surge is Monday. Colder push Tuesday-Wednesday with mix event. Milder surge Thursday. Colder push Friday and potentially mix event next weekend. The new version of the winter pattern as we enter Feb