Tuesday-Wednesday Snow To Mix-Remaining Active

February 9, 2025

■ The cold air has settled in on this Super Bowl Sunday

● Big ridge in Alaska, allowing the cold to push against the resistance of a southeast ridge that wants to stand it’s ground. This sets up a very active pattern with system after system riding towards the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. Active, but not always a favorable snow setup.

At the moment the ridge is strong, but flat and the cold can push. This allows for the Tuesday system to primarily be in the snow form with a more southern west to east track

● Wednesday to Thursday you’ll see that ridge strengthen, get a bit more southerly push. This is not favorable for the Wv high ground to get wintry precip by Thursday. Bob Leffler was always taught and mentioned it to me many times, when you see 591 over Miami, that’s the kiss of death for WV high ground snow. What often happens in these setups, when you see that 588, 591+ heights over southern Florida and high pressures passing north of our area driving in low level cold, its a classic setup for frequent over running mixed events for the classic cold wedge zones. That is exactly what we have in this upcoming setup.

■ OK let’s look at a variety of models for this coming week.

▪︎ First up the 18Z GFS.

▪︎ Second up the 18z EURO

▪︎ Now the shorter range 18z Nam

▪︎ 18z Short Range Canadian

■ The snow event Tuesday-Wednesday has some variances on modeling and the Euro, and GFS are the heaviest weighted here.

▪︎ GFS likely a touch too amped up. A bit south of 12z

▪︎ 18z Euro

▪︎ 18z GFS ensemble mean

▪︎18z Euro Ensemble mean

■ Now short range modeling

▪︎ 18z Nam, and lower weighted. It is a bit north. Worth watching, especially as any trend north or south will impact that Mason Dixon zone from a few inches to 6+.

▪︎ 18z Short range Canadian , low weighted

■ That said Garrett, Preston, Allegany, Mineral 2-5″ as it looks now. Any trend north could boost those up. Tucker, Grant, Pendleton, Randolph, 3-7″ with the highest as you move south in this zone. Pocahontas, Highland, Bath 4-8″ with localized 8″+

■ Moving forward as the milder flow aloft begins to influence the next system and track. It’s running over the low level cold air. This should set up some sleet/freezing rain Wednesday to Thursday with a change to rain across the higher Wv locations first.

The weekend setup will be dictated by the timing, track and how much cold pushes in with the timing of that event.