February 10, 2025

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Feb 10(Mon)

Cloudy am, sunny pm

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip 0

SF 0

SD 1.5 (variable)

SF season to date 88.5

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 4H

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valleys

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill Creek at North craft

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martin’s Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Near Oakland

Cranesville

7Springs

Blue Knob

Tuesday-Wednesday Snow To Mix-Remaining Active

February 9, 2025

■ The cold air has settled in on this Super Bowl Sunday

● Big ridge in Alaska, allowing the cold to push against the resistance of a southeast ridge that wants to stand it’s ground. This sets up a very active pattern with system after system riding towards the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. Active, but not always a favorable snow setup.

At the moment the ridge is strong, but flat and the cold can push. This allows for the Tuesday system to primarily be in the snow form with a more southern west to east track

● Wednesday to Thursday you’ll see that ridge strengthen, get a bit more southerly push. This is not favorable for the Wv high ground to get wintry precip by Thursday. Bob Leffler was always taught and mentioned it to me many times, when you see 591 over Miami, that’s the kiss of death for WV high ground snow. What often happens in these setups, when you see that 588, 591+ heights over southern Florida and high pressures passing north of our area driving in low level cold, its a classic setup for frequent over running mixed events for the classic cold wedge zones. That is exactly what we have in this upcoming setup.

■ OK let’s look at a variety of models for this coming week.

▪︎ First up the 18Z GFS.

▪︎ Second up the 18z EURO

▪︎ Now the shorter range 18z Nam

▪︎ 18z Short Range Canadian

■ The snow event Tuesday-Wednesday has some variances on modeling and the Euro, and GFS are the heaviest weighted here.

▪︎ GFS likely a touch too amped up. A bit south of 12z

▪︎ 18z Euro

▪︎ 18z GFS ensemble mean

▪︎18z Euro Ensemble mean

■ Now short range modeling

▪︎ 18z Nam, and lower weighted. It is a bit north. Worth watching, especially as any trend north or south will impact that Mason Dixon zone from a few inches to 6+.

▪︎ 18z Short range Canadian , low weighted

■ That said Garrett, Preston, Allegany, Mineral 2-5″ as it looks now. Any trend north could boost those up. Tucker, Grant, Pendleton, Randolph, 3-7″ with the highest as you move south in this zone. Pocahontas, Highland, Bath 4-8″ with localized 8″+

■ Moving forward as the milder flow aloft begins to influence the next system and track. It’s running over the low level cold air. This should set up some sleet/freezing rain Wednesday to Thursday with a change to rain across the higher Wv locations first.

The weekend setup will be dictated by the timing, track and how much cold pushes in with the timing of that event.

February 9, 2025

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Feb 9(Sun)

After last nights freezing rain,rain , colder air worked in,,some early a.m snow. Then flakes, mostly cloudy and cold.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip

SF .4

SD 1.5 variable

SF season to date 88.5

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 4H

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Blue Knob

February 8, 2025

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Feb 8(Sat)

Cloudy, areas of am snow,sleet, freezing rain. That progressed(freezing rain) towards Mason Dixon towards evening

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip +

SF .1

SD 1.5″ 7am variable

SF season to date 88.1″

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 4H

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valleys

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots Vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Webcams

February 7, 2025

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Feb 7(Fri)

Colder, dry, sun

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip 0

SF 0

SD 1.5(variable across the valley bottom from a bare areas to several inches.

SF season to date 88.0″

Dyacon Data Below

The Glades

Bittinger 4H

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport

Canaan Area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Town Hill

February 6, 2025

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Feb 6(Thurs)

Lots to write: Freezing rain overnight in the classic wedge zones. That was accompanied by T-Storms. Loud booming thunder. Areas west rapidly warmed at daybreak. That eventually pushed across the area through the morning. Ice melt plus rain also led to some high water and flooding in areas. Winds increasing today.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip 1.23

SF 0

SD 2.5″

Dyacon Data Below

Ice Accretion .25-(higher on elevated east exposed areas)

SF season to date 88.0″

Bittinger 4H

The Glades

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

Bear Rocks to Mt.Storm

while the wedge didn’t hold this go round on top at Bear Rocks the shallow cold was just below.

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valleys

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Meadow Mt -Frank Brenneman Rd

Oakland

Social Media

February 5, 2025

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Feb 5(Wed)

Mainly cloudy, cold, precip after nightfall

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip 0

SF 0

SD 3

SF season to date 88.0

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 4H

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rock-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley , Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots Vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Quick Fleeting Ice Event

February 5, 2025 7:11am

Ice storm warnings are out, as well as areas with winter weather advisories. See below:

■ Moisture pushes in later today. A view of the Euro and GFS below:

–

■ Over the years, while the 3KM Nam is poor on precipitation output(qpf) it often excels in temp/wind setup in these events. I’ll use it in this case.

● Temps. Watch the dam burst with the flood of milder air Thursday morning. That’s why this is a short lived ice event. By late morning, midday Thursday, across the high ground you’ll be saying what ice event as you’ll be enjoying mild winds rapidly melting any ice that occurred. Wind advisories may be issued for that, and if we have any area of drenching rains, small creek rises are possible. So while the focus is obviously on the ice for obvious reasons, it’s not a long duration event.

The highest ice accretion occurs on the highest east facing areas where the east winds aid in freezing things a bit faster and drive the moisture in. (I like .15 to .25 general max ice accretion with higher amounts on those wind driven exposed east facing slopes)

As you work west. Temps are marginal. Ice accretion is slower to form at 31, no wind vs 27 driving east wind along the Allegheny Front, Savage Mt, etc.

■3KM Nam temps below: valleys east of the Alleghenies hold on to the low cold a 2-4 hours longer vs over the eastern ridges. Those driving sw winds are slow to scour out that cold

■ 3km Nam winds. Ok this feature is a staple in these events when we have a over runninh event followed by milder air

watch that period tomorrow morning 7-10am. You see the winds prior to 7am across Garrett, those are ESE winds. Then you notice a lull. You’ll get 1-3 hours of calm. At that moment temps slowly come above freezing. We have lost the essterly flow that drives in the low level cold.

As the calm departs, it’s rapidly replaced by strong gusty SW winds that rapidly

1- melt the ice

2- send temps 45-50

● windy.com app illustrates this a bit better with the Nam . Watch the wind direction. Colors represent gust. You get the calm and rapid increase of SW winds and mild air

So while ice amounts may borderline some down limbs, etc it’s very short lived and rapidly a memory by midday tomorrow. That said, while its in progress overnight. Watch for icy areas driving and sporadic downed limbs and outside shot at power outages.

1- Watching a little more wintry precip Saturday

2- potential snow maker to go in to next week.