And Wait There’s More

May 17, 2025 7:40am

May has provided plenty of active weather, with storms, floods. Temperatures have fluctuated within the realm of May expectations. That includes some frosty mornings scattered about and some warmer afternoons. Nothing departing too far from what you’d expect.

May isn’t done and between now and Memorial Day, more noteworthy weather events are in store.

■1- More Rain, that may lead to localized flooding.

■2-Chilly air and “cold” air per perspective for late May. One that’s cold enough the chance of flakes above 4000′ is not 0%

So out there this morning. No great shakes. A uniform 50s, low 60s over the Alleghenies

As we go through today, upper 60s to mid 70s range on the temps. Pretty typical for mid May. A touch above average. Shower threat in play, not a big deal. Sunday is cooler with temps upper 50s to mid 60s. Below average with gusty winds and some showers in the area.

Let’s get things rolling for the week. A decent Monday is in store and then more wet, and this time accompanied cold weather (for May).

The rainfall Tuesday-Thursday is currently looking pretty hefty with the focus on Wednesday. Currently the WPC has the area back in the excessive rainfall potential

Modeling putting out 1-3″

-euro below

-gfs below

Colder air is the next noteworthy aspect of the week. As we go later week much colder air wraps in behind the rain event.

By late week those Thursday, Friday, Saturday temperature departures

●Thursday afternoon

●Friday afternoon

●Saturday afternoon

Those 850mb(5000′) temps. Coming down to and just below freezing. This as of now does look to occur with lingering moisture in the area. So, having said that, you got to keep the door open for a low percentage threat of some flakes above 4000′ as we go later week when the heart of the colder air pushes through. When you see the 850s that low, those high ground tops should run temps near freezing. Accompanied by wind making it feel colder. This isn’t a valley radiational decoupling from the airmass event. This is just a cold air mass. Those 850s

As that pulls away, will enough high pressure move in then for night of calm, clear, dry air for a valley frost night leading up to Memorial Day itself? Those details are sketchy and models start to separate on how Memorial Day itself plays out. There is though plenty of agreement on wet and cold this week.