November 12, 2025
Forest Service Cam offline 6/24/21
Nov 12(Wed)
Clouds, some sun, more south. Windy
precip 0
sf 0 sf season to date 3.3″
before and after
-Monday
– Today
Canaan Mountain Bog Edition November 11, 2025
November 11, 2025
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 11(Tues)
A.m snow showers, windy, some blowing and drifting. Aurora at night.
precip
SF 1.9
Event total 3.3
Season to date 3.3
For more data and pics from Canaan Mt Bog click the link below:
AM snow activity not showing up on radar
November 10, 2025
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 10 (Mon)
Snow activity, colder, windy. Pockets of heavy snow , areas of little action
precip .07
SF 1.4
season to date snowfall 1.4
*station data estimated using Garrett County Airport that is now back online.
-Site Comparison
November 9, 2025
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 9(Sun)
Sun clouds, few showers
precip .01
COLD/SNOW OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY A.M (11-9 TO 11-12)
Incoming showers today, transitioning to snow showers late evening/early overnight first across the Wv High Ground. Gradually that opportunity will continue to lower in elevation and coverage as temps continue to drop overnight in to Monday. The primary snow focus will be across the Wv high ground overnight in to Monday. Snow showers continue Monday and by later Monday with a secondary front an increase in snow activity and some localized squalls look possible.
let’s play out the 6z GFS..
Temperatures dropping later today, overnight, holding steady 26-32 Monday, with low to mid 20s on the Wv tops. The core of the coldest pushes in late Monday to Tuesday a.m. Many areas across the Alleghenies will drop to 15-20, with the Wv tops potentially going as low as the upper single digits to low teens.
6z GFS Temps
WInds after a calm Sunday morning, those winds while not extreme, will be consistent and increasing tonight, and more so Monday night through Wednesday. Gusts of 25 to 35mph+ , with in excess of 40mph+ across the higher exposed Wv tops will be consistent through midweek. This will create blowing snow at times with some drifting.
6z gfs gust
The combination of cold and wind will create some very cold windchills , especially Monday night/Tuesday AM with windchills running 0 to 10 above 2500′ , with the higher exposed Wv areas above 4000′, windchills of 0 to -10 may be seen.
6z GFS windchills
The famous question, is always snow amounts. This is a multi day event. The most impressive areas of accumulation are likely to occur across the higher favored Wv upslope locations where the moisture trajectory looks to be more favorable. That said, a cold unstable airmass can produce bands and squalls that can drop localized rapid amounts that cause poor travel anywhere across the Alleghenies. The period that is the most interesting to watch is late Monday-Tuesday a.m. When you wake up tomorrow, many will say this event didnt do anything. Again, these numbers are through Tuesday as things wind down.
First up, the NWS Forecast.
●Expected
●NWS High End
●NWS Low End
Now we’ll jump model to model:
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The consistency is through most modeling a favorable Wv event with the trajectory.
Thoughts and subject to tweaks
These numbers go Low End(L) Expected(E) High End(H)
Snowshoe L- 2-3″ , E- 4-7″ , H-8-12″
Elkins L-.5 to 1″ , E-1-3″ , H-3-5″
Canaan Valley L-2-3″, E- 4-7″, H-7-11″
Terra Alta L-1-2″, E- 2-4″, H-5-7″
Mchenry L-1″ , E-1-3″, H- 4-6″
Cranesville L-1-2″, E- 2-4″ , H-4-6″
Meyersdale L-T- .5 , E-1-2″, H- 2-4″
7Springs L-1-2″, E- 2-4″ , H-4-6″
Finzel L-.5 to 1 “, E- 1-2″ , H- 2-4”
Squalls or Bands can increase any localized area. These are also expected snowfall totals. Not depths.
November 8, 2025
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 8(Sat)
Sun and clouds
Precip .31 (5pm manual precip recordings. Precip mainly occured after 5pm the 7th)
+ Data uploaded ASAP
Snow/Cold Outlook Sunday Night(11/9) to Tuesday (11/11)
With the first widespread cold outbreak and Allegheny snow event on the way, scenes like the one below may be experienced Monday-Tuesday
Showers push in on Sunday, as well as colder air through through the p.m hours. Showers will begin to transition to wet flakes and snow shower activity first in the higher Wv areas of the Alleghenies Sunday evening/early night and overnight Sunday snow looks mainly light and across the Wv high ground.
Remember days ago the GFS rushed drier air in on Monday and shut the snow activity off? Well it has since came around to the Euro solution and keeps an unstable NW flow and accompanying secondary front later Monday as potentially the best period of accumulation as we go Monday PM to Tuesday a.m. squalls may be present Monday Pm-Tuesday a.m as well and as you know, those can rapidly cause deteriorating travel. Temps in combination with gusty winds will allow for rapid covering on roadways, especially after nightfall.
With more similarities in modeling now, let’s punch the GFS in motion.
Again, liking the later Monday-Tuesday a.m stretch the best. Many folks will get up Monday expecting to have all the accumulation thats expected to have occured and thats not expected to be the case.
Temps dropping Sunday pm, overnight in to Monday and holding steady Monday. Mainly 20s across the Alleghenies. Any areas of sun, that likely will occur will aid in a potential equally setup. Squally setups, much like thunderstorms, impact localized areas while areas missing out will see lower accumulations. Some of these squalls can make it to and across the east side of the Alleghenies.
Temps Monday night continue to drop in to the teens and low 20s for most of the Alleghenies, the highest Wv tops may drop in to the upper single digit air temps.
A look the 850mb Temps off the 12z GFS. The best method to get an idea of the highest Wv tops. Indicating upper single digits possible. (These numbers are in celcius)
A look at the temps off the 12Z GFS
Winds will be gusty, but not extreme through the period. Strongest winds look likely Monday Night, Tuesday. Gusts 25-35mph+ during the coldest stretch. Winds also do increase as the trough lifts on Wednesday with once again, strong winds. The coldest period in combo with stronger winds will produce windchills 0 to 10 across most of the Alleghenies, with 0 to -10 above higher exposed 4000’+ Elevations.
A look at the wind and windchills off the 12z GFS. Once the mesoscale models come in to range, you’ll see those depict the coldest windchills a bit better vs the GFS.
Now snowfall….Snowfall in these setups have variability and reduction as you progress east in the Alleghenie. . Areas in the eastern Alleghenies can still be impacted by squalls and localized higher amounts.
●In general:
Snowfall amounts(always lean towards the low to mid range of these numbers with a good performance getting the high end) looking like a 2-5″ western Alleghenies. 1-3″ eastern Alleghenies from Garrett, Preston and north in to Pa. As you move in to Wv, favored upslope zones by Tuesday Pm could see pops of 4-8″ with localized higher pops possible. Most areas in the Wv Alleghenies look to be in the 2-5″ range with 1-2″ west of the Alleghenies in the lower elevations.
The Blended Model v5 Par IMO gives a decent outlook. No model will be perfect in a squally and high ratio setup.
I’ll stick to that as I think it gives a range that looks reasonable giving the setup. The very warm lakes, the very early, very cold unstable air mass should produce. Most modeling looks a bit too high on the high end so for now I’ll refrain from killing it with images off all models… oh heck I cant refrain…
keep in mind, multi day accumulation is not the same thing as snowfall depth…..will post updates as needed. Expect some sort of winter weather Advisories issued for areas as we go through the next 24 hour period.
oh yeahhhhh dig it
November 7, 2025
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 7(Fri)
Cold valley start, building clouds, windy, rain later afternoon/evening
precip .01
November 6, 2025
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 6(Thurs)
Few Clouds, sun, winds dying after early morning
precip .20
void
UPDATE – 11/6 -3:30pm-Woodside Fire in the Vance Run/Big Mountain area of Pendleton County. Following from the Monongahela National Forest:WILDFIRE UPDATE:Quick FactsSize: Approximately 70-80 acres Location: South of Circleville, near the community of Big MountainContainment: 30% Cause: Under Investigation Resources: Approximately 70 personnel, 2 crews, 1 dozer, and 1 helicopter Start Date: November 5, 2025Status: This wildfire is being managed under unified command with the State of West Virginia and the USDA Forest Service, Monongahela National Forest. The fire is burning in an oak-hickory forest type, with very steep, mountainous terrain making ground access difficult. Safety of firefighters and the public are the top priorities. Planned Operations: Firefighters will continue to build and reinforce containment lines around the perimeter of the fire. Ground operations are supported by engines and hand crews. A Type-2 helicopter has been ordered and is scheduled to arrive later today.Public Safety: Smoke may be visible in Circleville, Big Mountain, Thornwood, and surrounding communities. Motorists are asked to be mindful as smoke can shift and may affect visibility while driving. Dry and windy conditions continue to create elevated fire danger across the area. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to avoid outdoor burning and to practice responsible fire safety at all times. Weather Forecast: Mostly cloudy today, with a high near 47. West, northwest winds around 10-15mph. Partly cloudy tonight, with a low of 29. southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. Warmer tomorrow with a high of 58 degrees, and south-southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph. The low relative humidity and moderate winds mean the area remains in extreme fire danger.Closures: None at this time. Public are asked to stay out of the fire area for safety of themselves and firefighting resources.Air Operations: A Type-2 helicopter with water-dropping capabilities has been ordered and is scheduled to arrive later today. A reminder – flying drones over the fire is prohibited. Drones endanger our pilots and firefighters. If drones are detected near the fire, any air operations supporting the fire will stop.
Allegheny Mountains Weather 