JANUARY 25, 2026 WINTER STORM IN PROGRESS

January 25, 2026 5:22am

• As we approach 5am this morning, the snow shield sits over most of the Alleghenies with some areas of sleet showing up further south in Wv. The million dollar question will be how rapidly and how extensive that mild air “aloft” layer pushes north.

■ Using the 0z Euro and looking at the vertical temp profile for north central Garrett County its a very borderline call. The vertical temp profile does vary model to model and obviously varies per location.

Let’s look at 7am off the Euro(again for north central Garrett County .

For this image (above) I highlighted the freezing line in blue. The 0°C (=32F) . At 7am the entire column is below freezing. = SNOW

At 10am at near 6000′, a shallow layer is near 32°. Not quite. On some modeling it is above. So, you can see how a small model error can impact whats occuring at the surface. At this point, this location is still snow. While its near 32° at 6000′, the surface temp is still 8°!(the bottom of the red line is surface) Precip type is still: SNOW

At noon (image above) the surface remains near 10°, at 6000′, remains slightly below freezing. Its very close. Precip type for this location based off the Euro should still be SNOW. Very easily if the model is just a little off, you’re pinging in sleet. That vertical profile is warmer just west. So keep that in mind.

At 2pm(image above) The column relaxes a bit and remains below freezing. So its possible if we ping in sleet midday, we can alter back and forth snow/sleet/snow/sleet with the warm layer so borderline. However here its below freezing. Precip type=SNOW

4pm(image above) Now the column is near 32° at 5000′ and just above at 6000′. The surface temp remains mid teens. At the grid point of the model here at 2500′, whatever melts aloft in that warm layer , refreezes as it falls 3000′ through below freezing air to the surface. Precip type =SLEET. Now, again, using the EURO, this varies model to model. At this time the Wv high ground has surface temps 20s, the high ground is not far below the 850mb layer, so the cold is very shallow, and its not as cold. This could be freezing rain in spots there.

7pm (image above) that warm later sitting around 5000′, with a drastically colder lower level holding. Temps in the upper teens at 2500′. Precip type =SLEET, but some freezing rain could be mix in.

10pm (image above) The warm layer is beginning to cool back, surface temps are in the mid 20s. Precip type as the system pulls away and begins to dry out aloft, is back to LIGHT SNOW.

■ Modeled snow amounts

0z Euro Below

0z GFS below

-0z Canadian below

-6zHRRR below

Blended Model Below(a blend of what?)

Just below the snowier zones modeling puts out some impressive sleet totals. (Those are included in snowfall) How accurate those will be, yet to be determined. Id suspect areas along the eastern Alleghenies and south could see 2-3″ of sleet potentially.

As this pulls out overnight, Monday is left with Snowshowers and light additional accumulations. That too is included in the maps above. Temps plummet again after the brief rise this evening.

By midday Monday, single digits to near 10

By Tuesday morning , widespread below 0

That is accompanied by wind, making it feel like -15 to -30°!