Cloudy, windy morning. Then some snow, areas of light rain midday on. Some areas it snowed during the afternoon at 34-35° with no accumulation. Some areas mainly below 2500′ saw light rain. After nightfall and the passing of the cold front, accumulations began to lower in elevation.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .21
sf .1 , sd 2.0 7am, sf season 9.4
–Foxtown Rd afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon. Snowed like this most of the afternoon. Temps just not allowing for accumulationRock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
––Deep Creek Lake middayMchenry afternoon Mchenry afternoon By Garrett College afternoon Mosser Rd eveningMchenry eveningMosser Rd 9pm
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rock-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots Vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
A BALMY morning relatively speaking if you are across the high ground and west. South winds blasting over the area along with some cloud cover.
Its colder in the panhandle of Florida this morning vs some of the high Alleghenies. Clear skies, calm winds there, that leads to a good night of radiational cooling east of the mountains and a bit further south. Let’s look locally at the east side vs west side of the Alleghenies. Cumberland 20s, Garrett County Airport near 40, Morgantown in the 40s. Thats calm, separating from the air mass aloft to the east. Meanwhile the disturbed air, associated with our incoming weather is in play over the high ground.
Cold east this morning, mild over and west of the Alleghenies
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Now throw in some good snow-cover with those clear skies in the south east side of the Alleghenies and its even colder this morning. Teens vs mid 40s on the west side of the Alleghenies.
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Not a unforseen or rare thing to watch that play out.
Courtesy of high pressure south and the low pressure of the clipper system coming across the southern. Great Lakes area.
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Low pressure northwest-counter clockwise flow= southerly winds. In this case gusty southerly winds.
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Its too warm to snow? Theres a pretty good lapse rate and more low level dry air in place. Meaning its colder as you go up, dry air has further room for evaporarational cooling. It can initially snow to the surface/graupel/snow pellets at 40°. Courtesy of dry air. That dry air is also a reason this morning at 40°, limited if any snow melt has occured. As the dry air moistens up at the surface and aloft, it helps lower the surface temps and as precip falls its also cooling the lower levels,,especially with any heavier rates. So initially the snow today above 2000-2500 will be a wet snow. 32-34° surface. Any lulls in action, temp may flux up a degree and with saturation the surface can even briefly melt back what has fallen.
K2G4 Garrett County Airport (2933′)vertical profile. Dry low levels this morning . Up a few thousand feet, temps below freezing.
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as the low levels saturate they cool, as well as the surface gets down to near freezing as precip commences..
Above 3200-3500′ temps should come back down to and below freezing and no issues of tetering the freezing mark as it snows today. As we go evening in to the overnight and the winds shifting west, northwest colder air comes in. Snow ratios increases. A 10 to 1 today goes 20+ to 1 tonight. A lighter snow in terms of density and is mire readily blown about on strong winds gusting 40-50+mph. Thus conditions look doable of 1/4 or less visibility, 35+mph winds, with snowing and blowing occurring for 3 or more hours. We have had numerous like events in years past that have not been issued per the letter of criteria and now they are. So, to stress, its not the Blizzard of 93 coming. However poor conditions with whiteouts are expected.
Now let’s look at the 3 upslope event per the Euro
event 1 today and tonight in to Thursday
my thoughts for the current event remain unchanged. Lean low to mid range and a good performance can reach the top end
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now off the Euro for event 1
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Event 2 Friday-Friday night- more of a diver and weaker vs 1 and 3
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Event 3 Saturday night-Sunday
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3 systems by the time we get to Monday that may tally 10,12-20″ across the high ground. Being windblown, you will not have those amounts on the ground. Total snowfall accumulation for multi day and multi events is not the same as snow depth. Due to a variety of factors.
Frigid air late weekend, early next week looks to rapidly modify by midweek and lots of mixed signals as we head towards Christmas.
After a back to back central and southern Alleghenies winter events, the entire Allegheny region and especially the upslope region gets to join in on the action Wednesday in to Thursday. (Not only Wednesday-Thursday as there is more beyond)
A low pressure system passing north on Wednesday will have push moisture in across the Alleghenies. A southerly push of air with the associated warm front will stabilize temps 28-34 overnight and rise 32-36 Wednesday morning. As moisture moves in the entire column to the surface should rapidly cool to produce primarily all snow in spite of the “mildish” start relatively speaking. Surface temps remain steady through late day as the associated cold front swings through.
1- Expect snow morning through afternoon with temps steady upper 20s Wv tops, low 30s 2400-3000′. Initial daytime accumulation looks to be best above 2400′. Strong southerly winds in the morning shifting westerly midday. Gusting 35-50mph+
2- as the cold front crosses. A burst of snow, winds shifting W to NW and upslope snows increase. Snow ratios increase. . Winds gusting 40-55mph across the tops. Can we sustain a period to qualify as blizzard conditions. That is possible and its not out of the realm a blizzard warning could be issued across the higher Wv regions.
3- lingering but decreasing snow on Thursday.
My own thoughts on the event snow totals look like
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The NWS and modeling is per similar
Lets run the Euro for this event:
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The experimental RRFS model last year in these setups did pretty darn well with snow ratios. Snow Water Equivalent. It starts out 10 to 1. Many think thats a basic rule that 10″ of snow is 1″ of liquid. Across the high ground, and especially with upslope which makes up a good portion of the average annual snow. Ratios are generally much higher. In this case by Wednesday night in to Thursday a.m. 20 to 25 to 1 is likely common.
here is the RRFS Ratios. Showing is as I saw it perform well multiple times last year with this setup.
When the ratios increase, as does forecast error and needed snow range.
take this for example. Modeled hourly precip output. Say you are getting .05 to .1 in an hour at 20 to 1. There you picked up 1-2″ of snow. Say the model was off that little bit and no precip occured that hour. Totals may expect to be lowered from a simple .05 to .1 liquid. You dont think about that minimal liquid in a warm weather rain event. Say that .1 ends up being a lengthy squall and you get .2 in an hour at 15 to 20 to 1. There you got blasted with S+ 3-4″ of snow in an hour. Higher ratios greater the error. Now toss in 40-50mph winds with those higher ratios. It obviously blows it about and even in semi protected areas it takes out the fluff(air) of the higher ratio and depending where the observer is located and his measuring technique. Widely variable reports may be seen. Thus, snowfall reports historically are the least valuable data set.
And in this example of THE RRFS it ranges around 5″ for the Garrett County Airport. Example given how that can be fluxed up or down.
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other model output:
6z Euro(personally I think some of these numbers get beat)
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6z GFS
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Blended Model
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as we go Friday through the weekend, 2 more events to watch
Friday
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Sunday
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Its very possible by next week this time a total week accumulation of 12-24″ across the high ground is possible.
This at times especially late weekend may be accompanied by below 0 air temps. So there are some extremes associated in here also. A very wintry week ahead.
NWS WATCHES
There is ABSOLUTELY NO reason eastern Preston shouldn’t be included in a upslope event. Aurora, Terra Alta, Cranesville all do very very well in upslope events. Even up along the Laurel Highlands and those may be added in today. Hello Pitt, State College.
Snow from Canaan south, increasing south. Mostly cloudy elsewhere
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .01
sf .1, sd 2.5, sf season 9.3
–Bittinger 2NW Valley morningTowards Bowman Hill afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Compared
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Cloudy, a swath of am snow across the southern Alleghenies, light snow elsewhere on and off, fog, areas of freezing drizzle.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .03
sf .2, sd 3.0, sf season 8.8″
–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Foxtown Rd morningOld Cherry Glade Church morningUp from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning DittoBittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morningBittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Towards Bowman Hill morning Dung Hill morning South end Amish Rd morning Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
opening day
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
did poor at showing some light low level moisture pm
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Light snow in areas through the morning. High ground fog. Clouds broke a bit late near and more so north of the Mason Dixon line.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .03
sf .2, sd 3.0, sf season
––Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morningBittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morningFoxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon By Glade Church afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon –Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoonBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningBittinger 2NW Valley eveningBittinger 2NW Valley eveningBittinger 2NW Valley evening
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
–Mosser Rd morningWisp morningMchenry morning 219 mchenry Deep Creek Lake morningDeep Creek Lake afternoon Deep Creek Lake afternoon State Park Rd morning –––––––––Mchenry eveningMosser Rd evening
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
–
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Bear Rock-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
–
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Cloudy, pockets of fine snow. High ground fog. Sun worked it’s way in from Canaan and south
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .01
sf .1 , msd 3.0, sf season 8.4
–Foxtown Rd morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningBowman Hill looking northBowman Hill evening Bowman Hill evening
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
–Mosser Rd morning Mchenry morning –Mchenry morning Morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morningMeadow Mt Deep Creek State ParkCarmel Cove morning
–Deep Creek Lake midday
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
–
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
–
Snowshoe
–
Mt.Davis
–
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void, little light stuff last night flying under radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Allegheny Mountains Weather 