Cloudy and cold overnight with a few very light snow flurries at daybreak, ending mid morning, then cloudy through the afternoon and evening
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′,,Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt/Sods 4035′,,Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3479′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961′
Cloudy and cold at daybreak. Light snow commenced shortly after mid day, continuing lightly but with little accumulation until late afternoon when changing to freezing rain, then back to snow mid evening
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Timberline
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt/Sods 4035′,,Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3479′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961′
NWS updated expectations- Charleston has upped the amounts for Randolph as it looked likely yesterday and Sterling lowered amounts Garrett, and thats heavy Euro based forecast. Sterling office leans very heavy on the Euro. Lately, it has not performed well. So we’ll see
new forecast
Yesterdays forecast
What changed, lets look at the Euro progression of the last several runs
yesterday’s 6z when Sterling was all on the higher amounts
12z euro, they retained higher amounts
18z euro lowering amounts
00z Sterling reduces expectation that greatly mirror the euro changes
latest 6z run not factored in to forecast yet and hints at a possible north focus
In most regards the Euro is the top model. Lately its been terrible in the 3 day window. The storm last week it was not good on the final piece of energy Tuesday night, Wednesday morning that brough in several inches of fluff and what turned out to be the nastiest night to date of the winte . With that event, Sterling had no advisories, nothing until 3am after the snow was mostly done. Which was mostly pointless at that time. The reason, the Euro completely missed that event once we got to within 3 days. It did have it around 3 days away then lost it. I asked the Sterling office on Sunday last week if their snow maps reflected the high ratio fluff that looks to occur Tuesday night as the snow map for Garrett and Allegany were identical. My reply was, we expect no snow in our entire forecast area Tuesday night. Then it turned out to be a nasty night.
The GFS handled that well. Now the question looms is it handling this event well as it is a bit of an outlier, but its also been the most consistent the last 3 days. The runs have barely changed and have not been weak, strong, north to south like the Euro and other modeling. Lets look at the last 5 runs of the GFS
6z yesterday
12z yesterday
18z yesterday
0z today
6z today
Hows that for consistency? Even the ensemble mean has held consistent ..newest to oldest
The forecast from Charleston yesterday morning
yesterday
todays update
Pitts amounts
this only out through part 1.
high end amount is really a worthless product. Often the high end map overlaps the expected. That should never be the case.
The biggest question with this is part 2 tomorrow
GFS tomorrow night. The furthest north. It is the outlier, but most consistent
Euro for the same time period. Much further south and this would allow for the lower expectations to verify. However the Euro has been anything but consistent
Canadian splits the difference
the Nam with its typical bundle of energy issues
short range Canadian a bit north
HRRR just a weak wave..48 hours is far out for this model
overall a 5-10″ event from Cambria to Pocahontas is still my thoughts with locals Garrett to to Wv ….12+ in spots if the GFS verifies. Still like 5-10″ regardless.
After this passes by, another round over the weekend to watch, and mid next week. Mid range from the models will come with lots of run to run changes over the coming days.
Light snow commenced again overnight, taping off and ending by mid day.
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt/Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′,,Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3479′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961″
Clear start, cold valleys, very dry air mass , coldest valleys in Wv below 0, clouds increasing mid afternoon, snow by 9pm…
Bittinger 2nw Valley
by Glade Church morning 2/4/21
Foxtown Rd morning 2/4/21
Foxtown Rd morning 2/4/21
Foxtown Rd morning 2/4/21
west of Bittinger morning 2/4/21
west of Bittinger morning 2/4/21
near Bittinger 2nw morning 2/4/21
near Bittinger 2nw morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 2/4/21
west of Bittinger morning 2/4/21
west of Bittinger morning 2/4/21
Foxtown Rd morning 2/4/21
Foxtown Rd morning 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon 2/4/21
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon 2/4/21
Garrett College
site issue
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
solar radiation issues
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002 Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt/Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961′
Allegheny Mountains Weather 