Light snow in areas through the morning. High ground fog. Clouds broke a bit late near and more so north of the Mason Dixon line.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .03
sf .2, sd 3.0, sf season
––Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morningBittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morningFoxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon By Glade Church afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon –Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoonBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningBittinger 2NW Valley eveningBittinger 2NW Valley eveningBittinger 2NW Valley evening
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
–Mosser Rd morningWisp morningMchenry morning 219 mchenry Deep Creek Lake morningDeep Creek Lake afternoon Deep Creek Lake afternoon State Park Rd morning –––––––––Mchenry eveningMosser Rd evening
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
–
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Bear Rock-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
–
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Cloudy, pockets of fine snow. High ground fog. Sun worked it’s way in from Canaan and south
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .01
sf .1 , msd 3.0, sf season 8.4
–Foxtown Rd morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningBowman Hill looking northBowman Hill evening Bowman Hill evening
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
–Mosser Rd morning Mchenry morning –Mchenry morning Morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morningMeadow Mt Deep Creek State ParkCarmel Cove morning
–Deep Creek Lake midday
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
–
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
–
Snowshoe
–
Mt.Davis
–
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void, little light stuff last night flying under radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Areas of snow, snow sleet, snow, sleet,freezing rain, just freezing rain, some areas of rain as well. Then pm snizzle. Fog across the ridges
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .33
SF 3.1, SD 3.0 5pm, SF Season 8.3
––Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning. Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning By old Cherry Glade Church morningBy old Cherry Glade Church morning Old Cherry Glade Church morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morningBittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morningWest of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morningWest of Bittinger morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morningFoxtown Rd afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Foxtown Rd evening.
–Towards Bowman Hill morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley middayFoxtown Rd afternoon
The Glades
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
––––––
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
–
-pics sent by Dan Sullivan
–
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Bear Rock-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
–
Snowshoe
––
Pics by Meagan Shetler below
–
Mt.Davis
–
Flight 93
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Sods Plateau
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void..
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Welcome to meteorological winter as we hit December 1st. Meteorological winter runs December through February. The first morning of meteorological winter is feeling like winter and feeling like December and we have a winter event on the way.
●Temps out there this morning:
Ranging from the 10s on the Wv high ground to 20s elsewhere. Windchills running 0 to 10 Wv tops, 10-20 elsewhere.
–
●With the cold temps, area resorts have resumed snowmaking.
Morning Views
–
●Afternoon Temps holding upper 20s and low 30s
–
●The incoming winter event
This has warranted Winter Weather Advisories across a large portion of the country and some of those are for snow accumulations meeting ,and or wintry mix. The Alleghenies will be placed over that zone. Precip pushes in after midnight tonight. Likely 1-2am. From Garrett/Preston/Allegany County and north this looks like primarily snow, however some pings of sleet may be mixed in at the onset as the entire column cools. Primary snow period 4-am to 8am. Areas south of Garrett, more sleet, wintry mix is likely for a few hours and that too should transition to snow. A quick moving event, a relatively light to moderate event, losing a few hours of snow with wintry mix will obviously reduce accumulations.
From Garrett County and north in to Pa the initial and main event looks like a 2-5″ event(leaning low to mid range with a good performance grabbing the high end) For the Wv high ground 1-3″ for the main event. Leaning low to mid range with a good performance grabbing the high end.
Let’s look at some of the modeling and snowfall output.
●Precip type off the EURO and GFS below
Euro
–
GFS
–
●Modeled snowfall amounts.
This includes the main event and some additional light upslope across the Alleghenies shortly after the system pulls away. That can add an additional coating to 1″.
Euro
–
GFS
–
●Liquid Equivalent Amounts
Euro putting out .25 to .50 liquid.
–
GFS, a bit more juiced up .35 to .70
–
Thoughts on snowfall totals through Wednesday 7am
Johnstown, Blue Knob, Somerset, Meyersdale, Salisbury, Springs, 7Springs, Addison, Ft.Necessiyy, Mt.Davis, Grantsville, Bittinger, Mchenry, Cranesville, Terra Alta 3-6″.
Elkins, Bartow, Cass, Marlinton , Cherry Grove 1-3″
Again the high ground picks up light additional beyond the main event. That is included in the above tallies. The timing and mix duration will obviously impact high end, low end tallies. Less mix, high end totals. More mix, low end. Timing of the event looks to occur to impact the morning travel on Tuesday across I-68, I-79, I-70 east in Md, the PA Turnpike, Corridor H. Obviously secondary roads throughout the region will require a bit extra time vs normal.
Again, lean low to mid range on tallies, high end with a good performance. Not a major or big event, but widespread and timing makes it a bit more impactful.
The NWS outlook below. A hair under my thoughts, but similar.
NWS ADVISORIES
A wide swath of winter weather advisories
–
NWS AMOUNTS. I think areas in Wv will be bumped up just a bit
Cloudy, a.m snow, maybe few,areas of freezing drizzle. Very limited. Areas of light rain and drizzle. Colder later afternoon, evening. Some flakes again
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip
sf .1, msd 1.0 (7:00) sf season 5.1″
–––––––
The Glades
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
-from Timberline
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
First 4 days estimated data from Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
––
Mt.Davis
––
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
–
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Sods Plateau
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
–
The Month
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
A bright sunny Saturday across the Alleghenies, cold temps, resorts cranking snow, all looks good.
–
Temps modifying through the day in to the lower to mid 30s for most, holding 20s across the Wv high ground.
● Afternoon Temps
–
As we go in to the overnight, temps dropping back in to the 20s for a good portion of the area, hanging low 30s elsewhere. A good overnight temp layout:
● Temps tonight
–
From 2am to 7am window some very light moisture pushes in to the area. Initially some flakes. Light snow coating are possible as it enters.
● 3 Hr Precip off the HRRR 6AM
–
As we go 6-10am temps continue rising in to the 30s at the surface. The eastern Alleghenies near and north of the Mason Dixon line and areas around Pocahontas, parts of Pendleton, Bath, Highland counties hold close to freezing at the surface.
● 10am temps off the HRRR
–
A near or above freezing layer, thats saturated from the surface to 4500-5500′ is in place. This likely translates to liquid reaching the surface except for the highest elevations in these areas.
●850 temps/near 5000′ in Celcius
0c = 32f
–
The lower few thousand feet in other areas saturated and just above freezing freezing. DGZ drying out. Likely result, light mist, drizzle temps mid 30s by 10am. Any snow on the ground is wet, melting
● Vertical Temp Profile Garrett County
–
●Early afternoon precip
–
The Wv high ground above 4000′ likely holds through the afternoon holds temps 30-35° early and falling back to near and below freezing from early afternoon through the evening. The rest of the area 35-40° late morning and steadies off mid to upper 30s through the afternoon with continued drizzle, before temps both aloft and at the surface fall back late afternoon, evening and you may again pick up a trace of ice, or some fine flakes.
●2pm and 5pm temps at the surface.
––
Overall this is not an impressive event. Total liquid through early Sunday night(frozen +liquid equivalent) around .1 to .30
–
●Snowfall amounts
General 1″ or less that will melt down after it occurs in many areas
The Euro a bit less coverage
–
In spite of the overall non impressive light event. ANY time we run the risk of some light coatings of freezing rain, that likely willl occur in areas, but not all areas, Winter Weather Advisories will be hoisted and that has occured from the NWS
–
Not a major event, but the risk of icy areas make it a “potential ” travel hazard in areas early Sunday morning.
Potentially icy spots will develop again late Sunday, even though minimal moisture remains.
Event 2
The next event Tuesday remains with question marks. Right now(subject to change) This is a more widespread “disruptive ” but not a major event.
The latest Euro and GFS
●12z GFS TUESDAY PRECIP
–
6z Euro
–
This to me appears to be a quick hitter. Slightly weaker than some previous runs. Slightly weaker, faster moving, limits duration and moisture. While mixing will play a role, and exact boundaries will wobble on models the next day or 2, this looks like a 2-5″ type snow event.
Mixing can keep totals lower
Speed of event can enhance or decrease amounts
Strength of event stronger or weaker can impact both precip type and amounts
boundaries of precip type will adjust as we get closer.
Dung Hill Rd morning Dung Hill Rd morning Dung Hill Rd morningBittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning South End Amish Rd morning
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
––––
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
–––
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Sods Plateau
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning –
Bittinger 4H
Top Of Wisp
–Morning Deep Creek Lake morning –Rock Lodge Rd morning
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
––
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
–
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Sods Plateau
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Allegheny Mountains Weather 