December 29, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 29(Sun)

Lots of clouds, areas of showers, turning windy. A mild day

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip

SF 0

SD T

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Blue Knob

7Springs

The warmest day until next year

December 29, 2024 7:35am

A mild start and a “warmish” wet end to today. We won’t see temperatures this warm again until next year. We do though stay above normal until the front midweek. Winds increasing through today, as well as the rain.

▪︎7:20am Radar

▪︎Temps at 7am. Mainly 40s, 50s. Some low 60s west

▪︎ Temps this afternoon under wet conditions, mainly 50s with low elevation 60s.

▪︎ Rainfall amounts for this round.

• 6z Euro

• 6z GFS

▪︎ Colder air works in tonight. If any lingering moisture exist by tomorrow morning, some flakes are possible across the WV tops that should fall to around 32 above 3800-4100′. Otherwise we wait until the passage of one more bout of rain to snow midweek that sets off an extended return to winter. The midweek to late week period looks like the opportunity for at least several inches of fluffy upslope snows.

• 6z EURO PRECIP

• 6z EURO TEMPS

▪︎ The more advertised and extreme winter opportunities exist further out in the 8-14 day period. Modeling has plenty of variation on to how extreme that can be run to run and as of right now. NO ONE knows the intensity in which the cold comes with, or the storm tracks of the systems in that period. Be cautious of hype, but also mindful that the extreme possibility is on the table. It’s simply too early to save anytime for certain that far out in detail.

December 28, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 28(Sat)

Last nights showers, a.m dreary to sun, clouds today. The low cloud deck, fog, remained near and east of eastern Allegany County

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip

SF 0

SD .5 to 1.0

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Blue Knob

Wet and Mild, to Cold and Wild??

December 28, 2024 7:21am

A mild start to this Saturday, only lingering pockets of cool air trapped in the valleys this morning that will be wiped out this morning.

How about the high pressure to the North East that held off the mild weather for parts of the area for all of Christmas week.

▪︎Showers lingering this morning, overall a fairly inactive Saturday.

▪︎Temps ranging 30s to low 50s this morning with 40s for most. Some valleys clinging to the last remnants of the chilly air

▪︎ Temps today upper 40s to mid 50s across the area

▪︎Rainfall amounts through Monday a.m. Now the second bout of rain is primarily Sunday pm and overnight

▪︎0z Euro

▪︎ 6z GFS

▪︎ Now something I rarely do, simply because long range modeling in general is not very good. There currently is agreement on a much colder look at least through Mid January after we cross in to the New Year. Much variability remain in how extreme the cold push is. The 0z EURO overnight was extreme. So, while extremely cold is hard on some things and many folks do not like the extreme cold for obvious reasons, we really could use it in areas for some invasive pest such as the hemlock wooly adelgid have flourished the past 2 years. The extreme cold of 13/14, 14/15 caused a major die back, then a recovery with only lighter die backs since with limited extreme cold pushes.

▪︎ So we open the 0 to 5 day period looking like the image on the left. The day 10-15 period on the right.

▪︎ Let’s run the modeled temps off the 0z Euro. The GFS is cold but not quite this cold on its latest run. It has also had very cold runs as well.

▪︎ Precip off the model shows plenty of activity during the period as well. Which transitions after a coastal system around the 6th that may need watched. Very far out for details on precip

In summary

• Mild, also wet weekend with a large portion of the rain though Sunday pm in to Sunday night
• Rain could end as a few high elevation Wv flakes Monday.
• Rain to Snow in to the New Year
• Then we watch colder air and a potential coastal event wayyyy out there around the 6th
• That’s potentially followed by an extreme cold surge. Anything this far out is subject to plenty of variability.

December 27, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 27(Fri)

A wide contrast of sunny, mild in spots, fog, rime ice and cold in spots. View more below

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip T

SF 0

SD 1

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

• The outage has been resolved

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

low level moisture flying under radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Finzel Swamp

▪︎9am below

▪︎3pm below

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Polish Mt

Town Hill

Webcams

Blue Knob

A Range Of Temps Before The Mild, Wet Weekend. Next Week Snow

December 27, 2024 7:16am

A wide range of temps to start the morning. Some areas impacted by radiational cooling, some impacted by the SE Flow, some high elevation areas impacted by a SW flow aloft. The SE feature will keep some areas chilly today while others turn mild, much like yesterday. That SE Flow also holds a more moist surface flow creating a bit of fog in areas, that has frosted up the trees in areas and a slight risk of patchy black ice this morning. Be aware.

▪︎pics this morning

Temps out the door at 7am

▪︎ Let’s look at temps yesterday afternoon

▪︎ Expected temps this afternoon. A common occurrence throughout every winter. Low level cold thanks to the high in the New England

▪︎ A closer look at temps this afternoon and surface winds off the Ventusky site using the HRRR. Model detail in these setups is really good.

▪︎ Rain incoming tonight. First round looks best Canaan and south, second wave Sunday, area wide

▪︎ Rainfall amounts off the Euro and GFS through Monday a.m in which the Euro tries to sneak a little elevation snow in at the tail end Monday a.m. The GFS does not

▪︎ Colder push next week. Some snow opportunity should return as well.

December 26, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 26(Thurs)

Areas of clouds, fog a.m, clouds holding tough east zones and a great temperature variance west to east. View the RTMA further below

Bittinger 2NW Valley

SF 0

SD 1

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

• A logger power failure. Will be fixed tomorrow

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill Creek at North craft

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martin’s Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

• Amish Rd

Oakland

Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Blue knob

Turning Mild and Wet Before A Return To Winter

December 26, 2024 7:11am

After many locations saw some snow cover for Christmas Day, enough to go in to the books as a white Christmas, any of that snow still lingering will quickly melt. The milder incoming weather this weekend will be accompanied by multiple bouts of rain.

As always, let’s begin with the morning temps.

▪︎ Out the door temps this morning for 12/26/24 at 7am. Valley 20s, and high ground 30s. Indicative of the milder air incoming.

Temps today will see the milder surge up west of the Alleghenies, over the Alleghenies and east, still milder than normal, but holding cooler as you progress northeast.

■Temperatures

▪︎ First a look at Temps off the 6z GFS

▪︎ A look off the 0z Euro. The Euro tries to get a little more cold air briefly wrapped in behind the Sunday bout of rain to see a brief changeover to snow late Sunday night/Monday morning across the high ground.

■Precipitation

▪︎ 6 hourly precip timing off the 6z Euro

▪︎ 6 hourly precip timing off the 0z GFS

■Rainfall amounts

▪︎6z GFS Precipitation Amounts

▪︎0z Euro Precipitation Amounts

▪︎ Excessive Rainfall Outlook. That will need to be watched for Sunday. Rainfall amounts and rates could force some smaller streams out of bank full.

■Down The Road

▪︎The 8-15 day look off the ensembles

First the 0z Euro

▪︎The 6z GFS

■ Colder times ahead. How extreme? Plenty of model variation on that aspect.

December 25, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

🎄🎄🎄🎄CHRISTMAS DAY🎄🎄🎄🎄

Dec 25(Wed)

Mainly cloudy, some high ground fog a.m. Below freezing accompanied those areas.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip T

SF 0

SD 2 7am

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

• Station remains down/offline

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Sods Plateau

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill Creek at North craft

Town Hill

Martin’s Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Webcams

MERRY CHRISTMAS

December 25, 2024 6:59am

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas! Snow on the ground for many across the Alleghenies on this Christmas morning. A week ago many didn’t think that would be the case. Snow on the ground always adds to the festive feel of the day.

Temps out there this morning, really remain nearly unchanged from yesterday. Some areas have not seen over a degree variance since yesterday morning at this time.

• Temps today not rising a whole lot.

■ Morning Views

Deep Creek

Timberline

Canaan Resort

Canaan Ski

Spruce Knob view

Snowshoe

Mt.Davis

Blue Knob

Mainly cloudy today with the low cloud deck mainly holdingnin place.

Enjoy your Christmas …..