December 24, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 24(Tues)

A.M snow until around dawn, that transitioned to snizzle, freezing drizzle, freezing mist mainly above 2700′.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip .14

Year To Date total Precip

SF 1.3

SD 2.5-3″

Snowfall season to date 29.3″

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

• Station remains offline

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

snow depth increase of 1.5 to 2.5

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland area

To Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Flintstone to Polish Mt

Town Hill

Breezewood

Webcams

December 23, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 23(Mon)

Sun, clouds after a clear very cold valley start. A fairly significant temp variation across the area today. View data below

Bittinger 2NW Valley

SD 1.5

Dyacon Data Below

The Glades

■afternoon pics

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

• Station down

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

• Station remains offline

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill Creek at North craft

Town Hill

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Oakland

Christmas Week Is Upon Us….

December 23, 2024 7:01am

Christmas Week has come. From the chatter last week that how “warm” the weather was going to be ahead of and for Christmas, it’s playing out not that bad for those(🤚)needing a bit of wintry signs to add to the festive feel of the season.

Lets start with this morning.

Temps are plenty cold out there this morning with valley temps running just below 0 to the single digits. Teens, to twenty on the tops.

■Going forward, temps today running above freezing for most, however that occurs with a bone dry air mass and a low sun angle. That limits melt outside of direct sunny areas.

Overnight temps hold steady or even rise ahead of the moisture. That 2 to 4 hour snow window comes in and exits early Tuesday morning. .5 to 1.5 looks to be the snowfall range off modeling, then a transition to light freezing drizzle possible and that’s the main reason Winter Weather Advisories are up.

HRRR BELOW

EURO BELOW

GFS BELOW

The limited window of snow, then transitions in to snizzle and freezing drizzle as the brief may but limited snow period ends.

■ Winter Weather Advisory areas. These are again, mainly for that potential transition after some light snow occurs.

The DGZ dries out rapidly, lower levels look to stay saturated and freezing mist, drizzle can glaze surfaces.

■ GFS 7AM SNOW DEPTH CHRISTMAS MORNING

• Weather With Mike

December 22, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 22(Sun)

Areas of a.m fluff falling that gave way to sun and clouds

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip +

SF 1.0

Event total 3.3

SD 2.5

Season to date total snowfall 28.0

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Station remains offline.

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

oddly the CRN remains offline

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill

Polish Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Webcams

December 21, 2024

• First Day of Winter

On to the regularly scheduled daily post

Forest Service Cam offline 6/24/21

Dec 21(Sat)

Areas of snow, heavy bands. The haves and have nots. Some periods of broken blue sky as well.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip +

SF 2.3

SD 2.3 5pm

Snowfall season to date 27.0″

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

no data, station down

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Station down

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

■Photos below by Sami Kahn

Webcam view below :

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

• Anemometers frozen except Bear Rocks

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martin’s Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Rocky Gap

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Webcams

December 20, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/21/24

Dec 20(Fri)

Some light a.m snow, then mainly cloudy with some scattered pockets of snow.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip .01

Year to date total precip

SF .1

SD .2 7am

Season to date Snowfall 24.7″

Dyacon Data Viewer

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Station down- no data. Rooftop stations impact data and make maintenence tougher. The EMA getting all this grant money for these poorly sited stations and half no longer work.

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport and Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500 Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Oakland

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Flintstone to Polish Mt

Town Hill

Webcams

Winter Weather Advisories out and also touch of Christmas Eve Snow?

December 20, 2024 8:14am

Let’s begin with the current conditions at 8am 12/20/24

Temps- Mainly 20s across the high ground, and 30-32° as you get to some of the lower areas.

Radar- pretty light stuff this morning, but enough to coat any untreated roads.

The better slug of precip looks to cross the southern Alleghenies later/overnight. The Weather Service out with Winter Weather Advisories, Randolph County and south in the Alleghenies and on down the higher Appalachians.

NWS Expected Multi Day tally.

Tonights batch looks to do best in the southern Alleghenies and then on Saturday, watch the for potential of a few high ratio lake bands north. Not a lot of moisture associated with them, just high ratio fluff.

A look at the GFS which I ran through Christmas Day. Watching that potential of a bit of snow Christmas Eve. Euro and Canadian models similar, but with their own variances.

-temps off the GFS

Modeled Snow Depth 7am Christmas (model does not consider many localized factors)

Not a strong part of the modeling parameters. They do try to hold a little snow cover for Wednesday at 7am, Christmas Day.
– the snow we have coming is of little mass. Meaning there is little holding power. It is falling on cold ground, during the lowest sun angle period of the year and dewpoints remain low Monday. That helps limit melt in aress that pick up a few inches.
– Tuesdays event, minimal event, but as of now a potential of 1″ possibly 2″ of wet snow. Occuring with temps low to mid 30s. So you’d expect a bit of melt of what falls and what is on the ground in areas that pick up some snow.
– the GFS breaks clouds up enough Tuesday night to allow temps to drop back im the teens and 20s Christmas morning. Euro keeps clouds socked in, temps steady upper 20s, low 30s.
– so given that, if we can get some of these snow aspects today-Saturday to work out, and again Tuesday, some areas definitely have the potential for some white on the ground Christmas morning.
– Temps on Christmas look to hold mainly 30s at this point.
– overall not cold next week beyond Christmas. Things actually look to dry out once we get past the Christmas eve precip. Temps remain maxes upper 30s to mid 40s, mins upper 20s to lower 30s. Not cold, but also not that terribly mild.

December 19, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 19(Thurs)

A bit of light snow, and freezing drizzle/mist overnight. Touch of high elevation rime as well. Mainly cloudy for most today Canaan area and north. Some sun broke out south.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip .16

SF .2

Season to date 24.6

dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

• NEW STATION PARTS INSTALLED FROM MID OCTOBER BEAR ATTACK ON THE STATION. DATA UP AND RUNNING

• Back off Mt Davis to the Md Line

• Mt.Davis Webcam

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

• Anemometer freezing issues

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Amish Rd

Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Webcams

December 18, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 18(Wed)

Clear cold valley start. A rapid clouding up and showers mid to late morning. Some protected valleys, just briefly below freezing as it started. Rain to flakes after dark.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip .38″+

Year to date total precip 51.70

SF 0

SD T

Year to date total snowfall 24.4

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

• No data due to mid October bear attack on the station

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground cold spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Not All Gloom, There Is Hope….

December 18, 2024 8:51am

The much hyped “Warm” Christmas is by no means a lock. It’s not to say it won’t end up being mild. In a progressive pattern, a week out in the modeling world is long time. Just 2 days ago modeling went well above normal Christmas to New Years and while not cold, it’s backed off considerably.

There are plenty of flys in that ointment. Lets look at the first thing that should make you pump the breaks on warmth. Thats a very cold departing High Pressure Christmas morning sitting in New England. Any time you see that this time of the year, the risk of over running and cold air damming will exist.

That’s a cold dry high. Modeled temps a week out(and this could significantly change) are below 0 across New England.

• Lets put the temps in motion off the Euro. Cold through the weekend in to early next week. A bit of moderation by Christmas, but not all that warm. 30s mainly across the high ground on Christmas. Again a week out, plenty on time to see this adjust.

• 0z Euro

• The 6z GFS temps. Very similar.

▪︎ Precip, any snow chances pre Christmas. Yes. Modeling has slightly increased the upslope this weekend. The Euro holds 1-3, for areas outside the WV high ground, and 3-6 over the Wv high ground and also brings in a little potential Christmas Eve. The GFS is a bit more bullish on 3-6″ this weekend. Each hint at some over running on Christmas day. Meaning a little mix/freezing rain potential, as well as a cold rain potential. Stressing a week out.

• The 0z Euro

• the 6z GFS

• The 8-14 map. You may see that and just think there is no way, it’s warm everywhere.

1▪︎ this map is a 7 day map from 12/25 to 12/31.

2▪︎ this map is a “probability” map of above average temperatures. It is not a temperature map. Its not an anomaly map. It’s a probability of above normal. Not how much above normal. Example- If a area has a average min of 19 and max of 35 and mins run 24 and the max runs 34. That’s above normal. Many locations can see wintry precip in December through February with above normal temps. Just to put that hype in perspective.

Next point, here is the 6-10 day which runs the 6 day period of 12/23 to 12/27. When you look at the overlapping period. You’d suspect departing cold right around Christmas. New data isn’t as warm(again not cold) from Christmas to New Years. A few days ago modeling ran 50s to 60. Now 30s, 40s, maybe a 50.

So, in recap

• Turning colder today. Rain ends as flakes. Little if any accumulation.
• Accumulation potential as we head in to the weekend
• Dry and cold the second half of the weekend and to start next week
• Some precip on the moderating trend Christmas eve and Christmas day and that may very well be cold enough for wet snow, mix, freezing rain or a cold rain

• While not much and not a strong parameter of modeling. Models hold a bit of snow cover on the ground Christmas morning

So don’t write it off as brown and warm Christmas just yet. Cold highs north can have other plans.

Will post more between now and next Wednesday, Christmas Day. Tis the season.