A rainy start to December 11th, that will eventually turn white as we progress through the morning, in to the early afternoon.
Radar this morning indicative of the changeover that is occuring west
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Temps at 9am. Mild air in place with colder air lurking just west. That will push across through the day
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Weather Service out with Winter Weather Advisories for this brief wintry event
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NWS Snow Maps(expected-high-low)
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Off the HRRR
-precip type
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-Temps
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-Windchills
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-Winds
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Snowfall off the HRRR, EURO, GFS below
‘
Overall a pretty minor event in the grand scheme. However with falling temps, strong winds, and just a few inches of accumulation will make for slick travel. Be prepared.
Nothing like back in 1992 on this date. When a strong Nor’Easter was moving up the coast dumping feet of snow across the Alleghenies
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Do you remember that event?
Looking ahead. Sunday needs watched. A wintry scenario is a possibility and can’t be written off for just a simple rain event. More on that in the coming days.
After brief a.m sun in spots, rapidly turning cloudy with midday, early afternoon rain..then cloudy and pockets of showers. Mild
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .14
Dyacon Data Below
Data in red will be adjusted to correction at months end. That occured due to a dyacon outage –Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake-Journeys End midday Meadow Run cove afternoon Deep Creek Lake
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt north facing Whitegrass
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data due to mid October bear attack on the station
Snowshoe
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Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
The cold pattern relaxed, replaced by a milder surge, some rain and soon will briefly flip back cold, with a strong cold push that catches the back edge of the precipitation Wednesday. That changes rain to snow. Accumulations look rather light, enough to cause slick travel though. Wednesday pm will feature strong winds and a rapid freeze up, especially through the overnight.
Out the door this morning, temps are running mainly 30s, 40s. Some clear skies in areas allowing the valleys to drop off. The northern Canaan station down to 29° this morning.
A view from the top of Timberline this morning off their webcam below
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8am Temps 12/10/24 below
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Cloud cover will be pushing back through the area this morning with showers following soon after.
A look at the models-
First the 6z GFS
Rain increasing overnight in to Wednesday
Rain to Snow Wednesday. First across the Wv High Ground and to the Mason Dixon around late morning/ midday give or take.
Rainfall amounts .4 to .8 with localized higher pops
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-Rainfall through changeover
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-Snowfall off the GFS
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– Incoming cold push then a relaxtion
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-Windchills Thursday morning
6z Euro
very similar to the GFS
Rain increasing through the pm hours in to Wednesday a.m
Rain to Snow, First the Wv high ground and a rapid changeover mid to late morning/midday. Sometimes these occurrences happen faster than modeled
rainfall amounts prior to changeover .5 to 1.0
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-Euro rainfall amounts below
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-Snowfall Amounts off the Euro
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– Temps off the Euro, the cold push then a relaxation, but not quite as much as the GFS
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-Winds Wednesday pm(these continue through Thursday)
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NWS SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
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IN SUMMARY ON THE WINTER ASPECT
A general 1-3″ likely with favored locations 2-5″. Upslope behind the system is limited with rapidly incoming dry colder air
Rapid Freeze Up
Strong gusty winds Wednesday-Thursday (advisories may be issued)
Temps in the teens by Thursday morning, Wv high ground upper single digits. Windchills below 0 for many above 2500′ with -10 to -18 windchills across the high exposed Wv tops
Temps modified Friday
With the cold, dry high sitting just NE by Sunday, never rule out wintry potential with that setup. A wedge setup may very well be in play.
Days in red was due to a Dyacon outage. Corrected tallies will be adjusted at months end –South end Amish Rd morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningBittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Afternoon Afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data due to Mid October bear attack on station
Snowshoe
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Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Days in red, Dyacon experienced a outage. Only reflected on the chart. All data saved. Numbers will be corrected at months end.Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Garrett County Airport
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
WhiteGrass Cabin Mt cam
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
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Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
–
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data since Mid October due to Bear attack on station
Snowshoe
––
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
no data
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
First out the door this morning, on a “milder” but very windy morning. A wind advisory out in Tucker, but windy throughout the Alleghenies.
Temps are on the 30s. With the exception of some of those deeper valleys, especially in the southern Alleghenies that have not seen the gusty winds kick in and with those calm conditions under clear skies, that area radiational cooling overnight allowing the valleys to get cold and hold.
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Winds have hit 60mph at Bear Rocks this morning
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Area cams showing the winds. From the water at Deep Creek, some shaking at Timberline, to snow blowing across at the Divide on 33. Those low dewpoints, in spite of temps, still allow the snow to remain powdery enough to blow. Even in the mid to upper 30s. So if you’re in a wind prone area, you still likely have areas of blowing snow.
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Moving ahead. Winds tend to weaken through the day and more so overnight. Cloud cover will encroach overnight as the winds die. Precipitation begins to push in tomorrow morning around daybreak.
It’s worth watching for some low protected valleys. Especially east side of the Alleghenies there is the potential for there to be some brief pockets of freezing rain initially to start. The clear skies and calm winds will allow those areas to chill off, and if precip gets in early enough tomorrow it can occur before those temps rise above freezing. That’s not a lock, but a possibility.
Lets look at the morning model runs for the coming week starting with the 6z GFS
The incoming rain Monday in to Monday night looks like a general .3 to .6 event
Incoming Tuesday-Wednesday looks like an additional .3 to .75 event
GFS is more bullish on the snowfall after the transition. This aspect will likely flucuate run to run the next 2 days. GFS snow map at the end of the video
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Temps off the GFS. Shows the early week mild shot being replaced by colder air working back in Wednesday. Other modeling much the same. That too is accompanied by wind, sending windchills back below 0 in areas Thursday morning
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Now the 6z EURO.
Rain pushing in Monday and amounts very similar to the GFS by Tuesday morning. .3 to .6. (Video pauses at these intervals)
Next Wave off the Euro is a bit faster, weaker vs the GFS and is zipping off the coast. Rainfall .25 to .50 before transition
Snowfall amounts much lower off the Euro
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Throwing in the Canadian
Rain pushing in Monday. Amounts similar
Tuesday to Wednesday it’s very similar to the GFS. Rainfall slightly more amped up
Transition to snow and amounts similar to the GFS
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Updates over the coming days as the midweek system begins to become more clear.
Mainly cloudy, areas east some sun. Light fluffy snow through most of the day. Moderate + pockets occured
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .04
SF 1.5
SD 6
Snowfall Month to Date 6.7
Season to Date 23.3
Dyacon Data Below
– dyacon outage left 2 days incomplete. Will be corrected at months end. Or refer to the manual chart above Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown/Beachy morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoonBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Towards Bowman Hill afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Carmel Cove iceDeep Creek Lake midday
Last nights heavy period of snow that featured some thundersnow, and strong winds saw the heavy precip shield moving away at daylight. Some lingering flakes and pockets of snowshowers today and intervals with sun, and extremely windy.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip +
snowfall 4.5
snowdepth 6
month to date 5.2″
season to date 21.8″
Dyacon Data below
Dyacon outage lead to an incomplete chart. All data was recorded. Chart will be manually corrected at months end–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning ” vehichle stuckWest of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning, station battery swap and reboot after technical issues yesterday. Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
2am Mosser Rd as the main period was just beginning Mosser Rd morning Mosser Rd morning Mchenry morning Garrett College morning Abbots Bliss middayAbbots Bliss-Railey Rental Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Timberline opening day
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
–Video by Logan BurrVideo by Logan Burr
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data due to mid October bear attack on the station
Snowshoe
Opening Day
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Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
67.8mph gust Cabin Mt2/Dolly Sods
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
A nice sunrise, early a.m sun and a rapid cloud cover spreading across. Late afternoon/evening snow/graupel shower . Milder 30s.
Important note. Dyacon, the station provider to many of the daily stations listed here, having service provider cellular issues of some sort with all the stations dropping offline. Fingers crossed this is a brief issue.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .02
SF .2
SD 2.0
Snowfall Month To Date .7
Snowfall Season to Date 17.3
Dyacon Data Below
– dyacon outage led to incomplete data. I will manually correct this at the end of the month. So look to December 31st for the correction. The graph is correct Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW 2NW evening grapel Bittinger 2NW Valley evening graupel snowBittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger eveningBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
The Glades
A throwback picture to 2017 on this date
Garrett County Airport
Mosser Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning rapid cloud cover crossing. Blue sky to solid cloud cover in minutes
Top of Wisp
–Morning Afternoon Afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
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A throwback on a beautiful early winter day 9 years ago today below.
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Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data due to mid October bear attack on the station
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Comparison vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
,
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Allegheny Mountains Weather 