Sun, clouds to start. Cold valleys, milder tops. Clouding up, pockets of light rain.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .02
SD 3″
Dyacon Data Below
South end Amish Rd morning Towards Bowman Hill morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning “experimental fridge spot”Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2NW Valley middayBittinger 2NW Valley middayBittinger 2NW Valley middayBittinger 2NW Valley middayBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Old Cherry Glade Church evening
Garrett County Airport
Railey cam morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Railey cam morning Evening
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no data due to mid October bear attack on station
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Wet snow continued overnight. Heavy early in the night. Lighter and occasionally snizzle and drizzle occuring. Areas of light wet snow, drizzle today with the Wv tops in the fog, light wet snow and freezing drizzle on the tops. Accumulation ended early.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip multi day liquid equivalent 1.76.(.16 today liquid) I will note the 4″ gauge at times would build around up the rim with snow(I fixed multiple times) which likely had some impact in the gauge towards a slightly lower catch.
New snowfall 4.4 at 7am. A trace after 7am. Event total 14.2″, season to date total 14.2″. Max depth of 12″ occured at 2:30am and was at 11″ at 7am.
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Towards Bowman Hill morning
Garrett County Airport
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Top of Wisp
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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–Afternoon
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Further down the Sods in the Big Stonecoal area
Andrew Lilly “To say the conditions were adverse would be a large understatement. Logged wind gust of34 mph, but know there were some higher winds than that, plus plenty of snow and drifting. Woke up to 18” of fresh, wet & heavy snow, which made navigating through the laurel amd rhodos a bit tricky. Despite the conditions, I had a blast and the beauty of the Sods was spectacular.”
his pics below:
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Spruce Knob
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Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no data due to mid October bear attack on station
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Snowshoe
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Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
– anemometers all froze up from freezing drizzle at around the same time Winds gusting to over 30mph as it froze up
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Much of the low level moisture flying under radar across the high ground
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Grantsville to Savage Mt
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Frostburg
upper part of Frostburg to lower has a significant snow cover variation
The day began with a bit of fog, even a touch of fine snow, freezing mist, rime, and that transitioned to increasing snow rates, strong winds. Blizzard Warnings in Wv. Poor driving conditions throughout the area.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip +SN
snowfall 5pm 8.0″ , event total 9.8″ season total 9.8″. Depths 7-8″ at 5pm
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning, as the snow began to pick upBittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morningWest of Bittinger middayFoxtown Rd midday Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon 3pmBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening 5pmBittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Mchenry middayMchenry middayMchenry midday Mchenry midday
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no data due to mid October bear attack on the station
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
,
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Cloudy, snow showers, few squalls. Most prevalent in the Wv high ground morning. Area wide afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .61+
snowfall 1.8″, momth to date 1.8″, season to date 1.8″
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Foxtown Rd afternoon Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening Rock Lodge Rd evening
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd afternoon Rock Lodge Rd afternoon Rock Lodge Rd evening Rock Lodge Rd evening Mchenry evening
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
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Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
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Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
Foggy, cloudy start. Some areas of brief sun, cloudy with showers late
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip +L
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Old Cherry Glade Church morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Amish Rd morning Amish Rd morning
Garrett County Airport
Mosser Rd morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no date due to mid October bear attack on station
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
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High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valley
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Snowfall off the GFS . The tweak would continue to be a bit earlier in the main period occuring Friday. While the central and southern Alleghenies look to best Thursday. The main period that looked like Friday Pm and overnight now looks to be mid morning Friday through 7-10 am through 7-10pm.
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Temperatures through the event and Thanksgiving week. Models have been all over the place with temps next week. From a warm surge to a colder push. Back and forth model to model. Overnight runs saw the colder push win out on most modeling. Will it hold? This is why you’ll see so much variance on your phone app that’s based off the GFS.
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Sounding off the 6z GFS(k2g4-Garrett County Airport). This would suggest Friday night as precip lightens areas below 2500′ could transition to a bit of light rain. As long as precip rates hold up, snow would occur to 1800-2500. Friday evening in to the night. Below that, likely transition to rain. 2500-3000′ temps creep up to 32-34° overnight. Wet snow that may potentially end as light flakes or mist, drizzle Saturday a.m . Snow compaction will occur. If you are recording snowfall. Your max, in which that’s the objective to record will likely be prior to 7a.m reporting time Above 3000-3500 temps should hold 32 and below
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The 6z ECMWF below. Much the same as the GFS
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6z ECMWF snowfall
6z ECMWF sounding (k2g4 -Garrett County Airport) This suggest much the same as the GFS above
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In Summary
Initial snow tonight after the changeover looks minimal. Inch or less.
Thursdays upslope, (the coldest period as well) looks best for the central and southern Alleghenies, with a squall potential that exist though all across the Alleghenies Thursday.
The heaviest period looks to occur Friday 7am to 10am window through 7pm to 10Pm window. That’s bumped up from a few days ago.
Upslope zones Garrett/Preston and north 8-14″, best highest Wv upslope areas 12-18″. To Note-SNOWFALL IS NOT SNOW DEPTH, ESPECIALLY OVER A MULTI DAY EVENT.
Strong gusty winds accompany the event. Creating blowing and drifting and at times, whiteout conditions.
Expect poor travel across the high ground at times and the worst being during the day Friday.
Resort snow making window is limited with the event. 24-30 hrs Garrett and north. 30-48hrs Wv high ground. Borderline temps and a saturated airmass are not prime for snow making.
Liquid equivalent output now through Saturday 1.25 to 2.25″. This will greatly benefit the ground water situation.
Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning Old Cherry Glade church morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening (snow stake. Not to measure accumulation with, just for casual obs of depth in a non wind prone location)Bittinger 2NW Valley evening (another like above)
Garrett County Airport
Mosser Rd morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
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Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area Temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
NWS out with Winter Storm Watches for the highlighted counties below
A jump in to the late day model runs. Models coming in to some agreement as you’ll see below
First up the 18z GFS
12 ECMWF (Euro)
The initial changeover Wednesday night, Thursday morning is a very minimal aspect as far as snow goes. Some light coatings possible.
As this looks now. The Thursday pm snows look best towards the central and southern Alleghenies. South of Canaan or Canaan and south.
As you go towards the Mason Dixon the best snow period looks Friday or more Friday pmish in to the overnight.
Let’s look quickly at liquid equivalent off the models. From anytime after late Wednesday night/Thursday 12:00am this is snow fall across the high ground.
In the image below, the Euro through 10pm Wednesday. This is primarily rainfall. In general the model shows .3 to .4 precipitation has fell.
Let’s hop forward to 7am FridayBy this time. Modeling puts out only .1 to .2 additional liquid north since 10pm Wednesday. This precip will all be in the snow form across the high ground. It puts .3 to .4 south which again is all snow across the high ground.
Now from 7am Friday through early Saturday afternoon. 1.25 liquid to 1.5 liquid since 10pm Wednesday that will be in the snow form. Again, stressing these are modeled numbers. Not a forecast. That said the greatest precip/snow period looks Friday -early Saturday a.m for most with the Thursday period looking better south.
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That was the Euro, now how about the GFS. (See below)
A bit less moisture on the front end off the GFS. At 5am Thursday and this all occured mainly as rainfall. The GFS has put out .15 to .30 area wide.
Let’s jump to 7am Friday .1 to .3″ additional liquid north(in the form of snow though) .5 to .7 south since 5am Thursday. So the early outlook is the first part of this event is more impressive south vs north and that’s typical with the wrap around upslope.
Now let’s jump to Saturday afternoon. Bam, 1-1.5″ liquid with a few intense streamers possible. You set up a intense streamer, those can progress east further than expected, drop temps to cold enough levels at lower elevations for stickage.. so Friday a.m at 7. Northern areas if this plays out like this, may be saying this isn’t performing as expected, when in reality the best period is yet to occur.
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Since we just looked at liquid outlook. See how the model shows that in snow form
First up the 12z EURO.(18z Euro was similar)
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Now the 18z GFS
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And the 12z Canadian
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18z ICON(10 to 1, highest elevations at times should do better than 10 to 1)
.
Given what’s out there now data wise… 8-14″ Garrett, Preston and north in the western upslope zones look possible over the period.(7Springs, Mt.Davis, Bittinger, Mchenry, Oakland, Cranesville, Terra Alta, etc) As you work east in Garrett, amounts tail off 5-10″ in the eastern part of the county. These being multi day totals with the greatest period Friday-Saturday a.m
The favored Wv upslope zones. Temps a bit colder. Amounts 12-18″ look possible with localized pops of 18″+. Southern parts doing best with the early part and continues in to Saturday.
With all predicted ranges, I lean low to mid range with a good performance reaching the top end.
All subject to tweaks, changes in the coming 2 days.
Temps off the GFS each afternoon. Coldest period Thursday-Friday pm. Saturday we begin to ease out under that coldest core.
Last aspect, but not the least. The event is accompanied by strong winds. First after the front Wednesday pm. Strong gusty. Expect 50mph plus winds across the WV high ground. This is without snow blowing and drifting. That aspect kicks in as we go through the Thursday pm-and especially Friday pm early Saturday period.
Allegheny Mountains Weather 