COLD/SNOW OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY A.M (11-9 TO 11-12)
–
Incoming showers today, transitioning to snow showers late evening/early overnight first across the Wv High Ground. Gradually that opportunity will continue to lower in elevation and coverage as temps continue to drop overnight in to Monday. The primary snow focus will be across the Wv high ground overnight in to Monday. Snow showers continue Monday and by later Monday with a secondary front an increase in snow activity and some localized squalls look possible.
let’s play out the 6z GFS..
–
Temperatures dropping later today, overnight, holding steady 26-32 Monday, with low to mid 20s on the Wv tops. The core of the coldest pushes in late Monday to Tuesday a.m. Many areas across the Alleghenies will drop to 15-20, with the Wv tops potentially going as low as the upper single digits to low teens.
6z GFS Temps
–
WInds after a calm Sunday morning, those winds while not extreme, will be consistent and increasing tonight, and more so Monday night through Wednesday. Gusts of 25 to 35mph+ , with in excess of 40mph+ across the higher exposed Wv tops will be consistent through midweek. This will create blowing snow at times with some drifting.
6z gfs gust
–
The combination of cold and wind will create some very cold windchills , especially Monday night/Tuesday AM with windchills running 0 to 10 above 2500′ , with the higher exposed Wv areas above 4000′, windchills of 0 to -10 may be seen.
6z GFS windchills
–
The famous question, is always snow amounts. This is a multi day event. The most impressive areas of accumulation are likely to occur across the higher favored Wv upslope locations where the moisture trajectory looks to be more favorable. That said, a cold unstable airmass can produce bands and squalls that can drop localized rapid amounts that cause poor travel anywhere across the Alleghenies. The period that is the most interesting to watch is late Monday-Tuesday a.m. When you wake up tomorrow, many will say this event didnt do anything. Again, these numbers are through Tuesday as things wind down.
First up, the NWS Forecast.
●Expected
–
●NWS High End
–
●NWS Low End
–
Now we’ll jump model to model:
Model Blend v5 Parallel
–
RRFS (Note graphic is a 10 to 1 graphic, this event can run 15 to 20 to 1)
–
Euro has been consistent limiting the action north of the Mason Dixon.
–
GFS
–
Canadian
–
Short Range Canadian(similar to U.S Nam)Nam
–
3K Nam, this model should NEVER be used for snowfall. It excels in cold air damming event, is horrible on QPF
–
The consistency is through most modeling a favorable Wv event with the trajectory.
Thoughts and subject to tweaks
These numbers go Low End(L) Expected(E) High End(H)
Snowshoe L- 2-3″ , E- 4-7″ , H-8-12″
Elkins L-.5 to 1″ , E-1-3″ , H-3-5″
Canaan Valley L-2-3″, E- 4-7″, H-7-11″
Terra Alta L-1-2″, E- 2-4″, H-5-7″
Mchenry L-1″ , E-1-3″, H- 4-6″
Cranesville L-1-2″, E- 2-4″ , H-4-6″
Meyersdale L-T- .5 , E-1-2″, H- 2-4″
7Springs L-1-2″, E- 2-4″ , H-4-6″
Finzel L-.5 to 1 “, E- 1-2″ , H- 2-4”
Squalls or Bands can increase any localized area. These are also expected snowfall totals. Not depths.
Precip .31 (5pm manual precip recordings. Precip mainly occured after 5pm the 7th)
–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
The Glades
+ Data uploaded ASAP
–––––––
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
–Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
–
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
–
Snowshoe
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Snow/Cold Outlook Sunday Night(11/9) to Tuesday (11/11)
With the first widespread cold outbreak and Allegheny snow event on the way, scenes like the one below may be experienced Monday-Tuesday
Showers push in on Sunday, as well as colder air through through the p.m hours. Showers will begin to transition to wet flakes and snow shower activity first in the higher Wv areas of the Alleghenies Sunday evening/early night and overnight Sunday snow looks mainly light and across the Wv high ground.
Remember days ago the GFS rushed drier air in on Monday and shut the snow activity off? Well it has since came around to the Euro solution and keeps an unstable NW flow and accompanying secondary front later Monday as potentially the best period of accumulation as we go Monday PM to Tuesday a.m. squalls may be present Monday Pm-Tuesday a.m as well and as you know, those can rapidly cause deteriorating travel. Temps in combination with gusty winds will allow for rapid covering on roadways, especially after nightfall.
With more similarities in modeling now, let’s punch the GFS in motion.
–
Again, liking the later Monday-Tuesday a.m stretch the best. Many folks will get up Monday expecting to have all the accumulation thats expected to have occured and thats not expected to be the case.
Temps dropping Sunday pm, overnight in to Monday and holding steady Monday. Mainly 20s across the Alleghenies. Any areas of sun, that likely will occur will aid in a potential equally setup. Squally setups, much like thunderstorms, impact localized areas while areas missing out will see lower accumulations. Some of these squalls can make it to and across the east side of the Alleghenies.
Temps Monday night continue to drop in to the teens and low 20s for most of the Alleghenies, the highest Wv tops may drop in to the upper single digit air temps.
A look the 850mb Temps off the 12z GFS. The best method to get an idea of the highest Wv tops. Indicating upper single digits possible. (These numbers are in celcius)
A look at the temps off the 12Z GFS
–
Winds will be gusty, but not extreme through the period. Strongest winds look likely Monday Night, Tuesday. Gusts 25-35mph+ during the coldest stretch. Winds also do increase as the trough lifts on Wednesday with once again, strong winds. The coldest period in combo with stronger winds will produce windchills 0 to 10 across most of the Alleghenies, with 0 to -10 above higher exposed 4000’+ Elevations.
A look at the wind and windchills off the 12z GFS. Once the mesoscale models come in to range, you’ll see those depict the coldest windchills a bit better vs the GFS.
●10M Winds●Windchills Above
Now snowfall….Snowfall in these setups have variability and reduction as you progress east in the Alleghenie. . Areas in the eastern Alleghenies can still be impacted by squalls and localized higher amounts.
●In general:
Snowfall amounts(always lean towards the low to mid range of these numbers with a good performance getting the high end) looking like a 2-5″ western Alleghenies. 1-3″ eastern Alleghenies from Garrett, Preston and north in to Pa. As you move in to Wv, favored upslope zones by Tuesday Pm could see pops of 4-8″ with localized higher pops possible. Most areas in the Wv Alleghenies look to be in the 2-5″ range with 1-2″ west of the Alleghenies in the lower elevations.
The Blended Model v5 Par IMO gives a decent outlook. No model will be perfect in a squally and high ratio setup.
I’ll stick to that as I think it gives a range that looks reasonable giving the setup. The very warm lakes, the very early, very cold unstable air mass should produce. Most modeling looks a bit too high on the high end so for now I’ll refrain from killing it with images off all models… oh heck I cant refrain…
6z Euro 12z Nam 12z Canadian 12z GFS
keep in mind, multi day accumulation is not the same thing as snowfall depth…..will post updates as needed. Expect some sort of winter weather Advisories issued for areas as we go through the next 24 hour period.
Cold valley start, building clouds, windy, rain later afternoon/evening
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .01
–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
The Glades
––––––––––––––––
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
–Mosser Rd morningMosser Rd morningDeep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake afternoon Deep Creek Lake/Wisp afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
Mt Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning DittoUp from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning –Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
The Glades
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morningDeep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morningDeep Creek Lake afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
–
Snowshoe
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
–
Ongoing Fire
UPDATE – 11/6 -3:30pm-Woodside Fire in the Vance Run/Big Mountain area of Pendleton County. Following from the Monongahela National Forest:WILDFIRE UPDATE:Quick FactsSize: Approximately 70-80 acres Location: South of Circleville, near the community of Big MountainContainment: 30% Cause: Under Investigation Resources: Approximately 70 personnel, 2 crews, 1 dozer, and 1 helicopter Start Date: November 5, 2025Status: This wildfire is being managed under unified command with the State of West Virginia and the USDA Forest Service, Monongahela National Forest. The fire is burning in an oak-hickory forest type, with very steep, mountainous terrain making ground access difficult. Safety of firefighters and the public are the top priorities. Planned Operations: Firefighters will continue to build and reinforce containment lines around the perimeter of the fire. Ground operations are supported by engines and hand crews. A Type-2 helicopter has been ordered and is scheduled to arrive later today.Public Safety: Smoke may be visible in Circleville, Big Mountain, Thornwood, and surrounding communities. Motorists are asked to be mindful as smoke can shift and may affect visibility while driving. Dry and windy conditions continue to create elevated fire danger across the area. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to avoid outdoor burning and to practice responsible fire safety at all times. Weather Forecast: Mostly cloudy today, with a high near 47. West, northwest winds around 10-15mph. Partly cloudy tonight, with a low of 29. southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. Warmer tomorrow with a high of 58 degrees, and south-southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph. The low relative humidity and moderate winds mean the area remains in extreme fire danger.Closures: None at this time. Public are asked to stay out of the fire area for safety of themselves and firefighting resources.Air Operations: A Type-2 helicopter with water-dropping capabilities has been ordered and is scheduled to arrive later today. A reminder – flying drones over the fire is prohibited. Drones endanger our pilots and firefighters. If drones are detected near the fire, any air operations supporting the fire will stop.
Clouds, sun, VERY windy, areas of showers, few storms after nightfall
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip 0
–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morningWest of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning –Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades middayBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningBittinger 2NW Valley eveningBittinger 2NW Valley evening
–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening West of Bittinger evening
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
–Mosser Rd morningDeep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake afternoon Deep Creek Lake afternoon Mchenry afternoon Mchenry evening
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks
Station install day, all data prior to install time was estimated off Northern Cabin Mt referred to here as Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
–Rock Lodge Rd morning Deep Creek Lake afternoon Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
–Pic by Dave Carroll
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Allegheny Mountains Weather 