January 10, 2024

January 10, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 10(Wed)

 Periods of light snow, some fine snow extremely windy. Power outages

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Foxtown Rd morning
By Glade Church morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon
Foxtown Rd afternoon
Foxtown Rd afternoon
West of Bittinger afternoon
West of Bittinger afternoon
Near Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
To Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon “Experimental Fridge Spot”
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
West of Bittinger evening
West of Bittinger evening
Foxtown Rd evening
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening

Garrett County Airport

Carmel Cove Deep Creek Lake
Carmel Cove morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
By Garrett College morning

Top of Wisp

Evening

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts BP

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

71MPH GUST

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland area

Cranesville

January 9, 2024

January 9, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 9(Tues)

 A wide range today from

  • Heavy snow from hours before daylight to late morning midday
  • areas of sleet
  • freezing rain
  • rain
  • wind

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below-

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Old Cherry Glade Church morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Near Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Near Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning “depth on bridge “
Bittinger 2nw Valley midday
West of Bittinger midday
West of Bittinger midday
Foxtown Rd midday-freezing rain
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening

Garrett County Airport

Mosser Rd as it began
By Garrett College morning
Rock Lodge Rd afternoon
Mchenry afternoon
Mchenry afternoon
Mosser Rd evening

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Webcams

Weatherfix.net post

-Lots of highways and roads shut down with the snowfall rates this morning 1-2″ per hours over 7 hours Frostburg coop in at 14.3.

January 8, 2024

January 8, 2024

Outlook:

 The incoming “slop” system, that will begin wintry for some had raised some winter weather advisories I’m these area highlighted below

The NWS Snowfall outlooks for Tuesday morning

From Sterling:

From Pittsburgh

From State College

From Charleston

The snow aspect of the event is not long lived. Quick initial thump and the vertical temp profile gradually warms aloft and to the surface.

 Right along the west edge of those expected better early snow accumulations should be a sleet zone, and some areas of freezing rain before the Tuesday pm features plain rain. The Blue Knob and those higher eastern Allegheny PA areas should hold on to the wintry aspect the longest. As the midday model runs illustrate 

A quick look at the 12z ECMWF

The next story looks to be the strong southeast winds. Those come over the Alleghenies and downslope west has a good potential to cause some power outages.

Wind gust in excess of 50+mph possible. Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings in play.

A look on the models at the winds, and wind direction. Winds from the southeast Tuesday then often right ahead of the wind direction flip there is some lull, but don’t let your guard down as Wednesday a.m will feature strong SW winds and in this case those are ushering back the colder air 

A look at the 12z HRRR winds from the Ventusky website. Advancing every several hours.

Temps tomorrow on those SE winds hold cold through the a.m hours in those typical wedge areas in the over running events. Eventually enough moist, and just mild enough air works in to flip things to plain rain area wide.

Temps off the 12z HRRR, graphics off the Weatherbell website

All told this system has plenty of moisture. 1-2″ of total liquid and in some areas upwards .75 to a inch could be in the frozen form. Then plenty of moisture remains to fall on that. Areas that are primarily all rain stand a chance at some localized creek flooding, and high water likely across the entire region once everyone changes over 

Those amounts include what is a portion of frozen precipitation.

As we progress Tuesday night in to Wednesday we end as some upslope snow to end the event and that looks to progress through very rapidly and amounts should be rather light on the order of 1-2″ that will be blown about as things refreeze back over.

Review of January 8, 2024

Review of January 8, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 8(Mon)

Cloudy a.m, a few breaks in the pm

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

South end of Amish Rd morning
Towards Bowman Hill morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon “Experimental Fridge Spot”
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening

Garrett County Airport

Deep Creek Lake morning

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data MMTS BP

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

,

Oakland area

January 7, 2024

January 7, 2024

Outlooks:

Yesterdays snow to the right, today and tonight to the left…tomorrow stomp your foot…Tuesday morning to the right, Wednesday morning to the left….

Yesterday’s snowfall left in its wake a snowfall map that looks like

This one to the right..which is typical of the storm setup. 

Now we watch the wrap around backside upslope today and tonight begin to fill on the west side of the Alleghenies. Favored upslope areas by 7am Monday 3-6″. As you progress towards the east side of the Alleghenies those amounts rapidly tail off 

The 6z GFS for this current upslope event

and the 6z ECMWF below for this upslope event

overall temps today holding steady to slowly backsliding this afternoon and some gusty winds will accompany this snow blowing it around across the high ground 

Then eyes will go to Tuesday with the next substantial system pushing in. This snow will be to the right, or east side similar to yesterday’s event in snow location. This is more of a quick snow thump(not extended as far east)and transition to sleet, freezing rain and eventually rain area wide as we go late Tuesday , Tuesday night.

the 6z GFS below

The initial thump of snow up the east side

6z GFS snowfall output

and the 6z ECMWF

the western zone of the best snowfall out, should feature a area of sleet and freezing rain.

The areas that miss out on the frozen aspect with this will also have to watch for some high water, as this system looks to have plenty of moisture.

As this system lifts away, to the left cha cha with the wrap around upslope that looks like this off the 6z GFS

Wouldn’t surprise me to see this end up a bit lower on the upslope with this, but far enough away to watch how it plays out.

Review of January 7, 2024

Review of January 7, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 7(Sun)

 Upslope snow, varying light to moderate

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below-

Foxtown Rd morning
West of Bittinger morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Towards Bowman Hill morning

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data MMTS BP

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Bald Knob pic today by Dave Carroll
Bald Knob pic by Dave Carroll as he repaired the Bald Knob weather station

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Up Martin’s Mt

Polish Mt

Town Hill

Buck Valley area

Webcams

Keysers Ridge evening

January 6, 2024

January 6, 2024

Outlook:

Part 1 now passing by.

Leaving in its wake :

3.8″ Bittinger 2nw Valley, a good portion of sleet beating back totals. 5-6″ amounts eastern Garrett, 5-8″ amounts in Allegany County. A map will be added here later, with reported tallies areas wide 

Now part 2-

The lull between part 1 and part 2(The upslope part) will feature some freezing drizzle in the lull period this evening and overnight.

Part 2 kicks in later tonight through Sunday night. As of now the upslope trend has looked more impressive on the recent model runs. Favorable upslope zones of 3-6″ amounts and that rapidly dries out as you progress east in those areas that did well today and a bit less as you lose elevation west, but still some light amounts there. Let’s look at the

18z GFS below

and the 12z ECMWF below

This will be accompanied by 25-35mph winds Sunday, so blowing and drifting will occur. Temps 24-31 area wide across the high ground Sunday. So the areas west that were on the lower end of tallies today, do best tomorrow.

Eyes will then go to Tuesday. Once again the east side of the Alleghenies may get another quick thump of snow with that, not as widespread eastbound as today’s event was, and again that goes to a mix of sleet to freezing rain to rain with that and back to snow Wednesday. Location will play a big role Tuesday on the duration of the wintry side.

Review of January 6, 2024

Review of January 6, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 6(Sat)

Snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain and depending on location made the difference of how much of those you seen.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below- you’ll notice a slight difference in max temps. That is based on the recording interval if the Dyacon is 10 minutes vs 6 minutes.

Towards Bowman Hill morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon “Fridge Spot “
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
West of Bittinger evening
West of Bittinger evening
Foxtown Rd evening

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data MMTS BP

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Station repair tomorrow by Dave Carroll

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

*before the snow

Martins Mt

*before the storm

Cumberland to Lavale

Cumberland
Cumberland

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

North Fork Mt

Pic by Dave Carroll

January 5, 2024

January 5, 2024

Outlook:

Afternoon updates, latest NWS warnings and the 12z ECMWF (Euro) in

Starting off with the latest NWS Warning map

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

The latest 12z ECMWF

This morning the 6z ECMWF was this for part 1-

and now the 12z went to this for part 1

so it came in a bit juicier

My thoughts from the morning post remain for part 1

This is for part 1,and refer to that post for few more details and that area towards Morgantown that could exceed expectations. Low uncertainty there 

And the 12z ECMWF for part 2

my thoughts on part 2 remain

Stay updated to your local NWS forecast and their latest snowfall maps are under the drop-down menu here on this page under snowfall info.

Review of January 5, 2024

Review of January 5, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 5(Fri)

Clear cold valley start, and other cold on top, just not as cold. A tranquil day with a fair amount of sun.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

dyacon data below-

Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon

Garrett County Airport

Deep Creek morning from the Railey cam

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am Data MMTS BP

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

*station data expected to resume next week

Whitegrass cam on Cabin Mt-not at Bald Knob exactly

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

January 5, 2024

January 5, 2024

Outlook:

Saturday storm thoughts, Sunday upslope.

Saturdays storm system still has plenty of variabilities.

1-Speed

2- QPF-liquid output(includes frozen precip)

3- Mixing potential

  • Model variation

The 6z GFS

Precip pushing in Saturday. The GFS typically is a touch too mild on these setups and may be a bit overdone on the mix zone. The focus for the best snow should run from the Allegheny Front to Sideling Hill and north-northeast. A 4-8″ zone. With the precip moving in rapidly, the main brunt of the precip in a 5-8 hour period, once it breaks out and precip rates hold up, mixing should be limited and a primarily a snow event would occur. Lighter rates allow for some sleet to occur in areas.

6z Gfs snowfall output

The 6z Euro

The 6z ECMWF snowfall amounts below and this op run of the ECMWF was a bit low on overall moisture I suspect a slight uptick on 12z

My thoughts for part 1, leaning low to mid range with a good performer grabbing the top end

Some tricky areas that potentially could beat models and these thoughts, may be around Morgantown. You break at snow at a heavier rate, the main part of the system can hold snow longer. So if you get heavier rates going, albeit short lived, it’s enough, fast enough to cause very poor travel. So the expected low zones still can have poor travel with initial heavy rates. Something to watch for, not a lock to occur 

The NWS amounts for Part 1

NWS warnings,watches,advisories

Stay tuned to your local NWS updates through today and Saturday morning as the system continues to evolve and details are honed in. The NWS updated snowfall amounts are linked in the drop-down menu on this page under snowfall info. Those maps may now include snowfall in to part 2.

Between parts 1 and 2(the upslope feature) some light freezing drizzle may occur widespread over the high ground. 

Part 2

Quick thoughts on part 2, the upslope part, this would be Sunday into very early Monday a.m hours. Leaning low to mid range with a good performer grabbing the top end 

After this passes, we watch the Next system Tuesday-Wednesday.

 That’s a snow to sleet, freezing rain to rain and backend wrap around snow. The initial snow brunt potential again is greatest up the eastern Alleghenies, with a mix encroaching southwest to north east. The backend snows at the moment with this look a bit limited as the system pulls northeast. Even with that, the Allegheny equalizer is in play, the east does best initially, west is best with the backsides.

More updates as we get closer to both events and as always, stay tuned to your local NWS on social media, their websites.

January 4, 2024

January 4, 2024

Outlook:

The ever evolving weekend system continues a trend downward on the expected snowfall tallies. With the main system Saturday, across most of the Alleghenies its looking like a 2-5″ event, with a 4-8″ swath possible on the east side of the Alleghenies, especially near the Mason Dixon like and points northeast. There is almost always a overperforming zone that sets up somewhere just east of the Alleghenies with the setup.

 As that system heads northeast and deepens off the coast, then the uoslope zones will kick in their round 2 feature late Saturday night through Monday a.m where an additional 2-5″ of fluff, that will become windblown fluff can occur. Overall multi day tallies look like they should fall in the low to mid range of those combined amounts, and maybe some areas max out on both.

The 12z GFS which is the lowest of the group comes in with these tallies on Saturday

below is the 6z ECMWF, which is a bit more amped up. The 12z ECMWF will start coming in, in a hour(1pm)

the 12z Canadian, which the Canadian has repeatedly held the highest amounts run after run comes in like this for Saturday

Don’t lean to heavily on that.

Again those tallies are part 1, then the upslope side part 2 that should add similar tallies on higher ratio snow across the upslope areas.

Eyes then go to the bigger system that looks like will be a snow to sleet/freezing rain to rain to backend snow event. That system potentially could trend colder, or at least entrench cold air at the surface for a longer duration. The GFS often warms things up too fast. I’ll post the 12Z ECMWF a bit later here.

While mentioning colder. Skies clear tonight, high moves over, winds go calm, very dry air mass in place , watch those valley temps plummet overnight. Maybe squeeze out a below 0 reading in the coldest spots.

Review of January 4, 2024

Review of January 4, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 4(Thurs)

Last Night freezing mist to snow by a.m. Areas of snow in to the early afternoon, clouds broke late

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below – the date marked red as battery issue early day, and dyacon does not backfill data the the mesowest graph has. My manual graph, will continue so there is no data loss, just the Dyacon graph will be a few degrees off for the date and have little effect on the monthly.

Foxtown Rd morning
Near Bittinger 2nw morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd afternoon
West of Bittinger afternoon
Near Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Towards Bowman Hill afternoon

Garrett County Airport

Rock Lodge Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd morning
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Deep Creek Lake afternoon

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts BP

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

no data

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland area

To Cranesville

Sang Run

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Sideling Hill in view from Savage Mt

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Martins Mt

Town Hill

January 3, 2023

January 3, 2023

Outlooks:

Before you go wipe out Walmart, cool the hype a bit. You’re not going to be snowed in for days and needing to resort to cannibalism like you’re in the Donner Party deciding who to eat.

As of now, the window of weekend snow looks quite brief. Travel may be bad for a period. Trends have significantly lowered those model images being shared on social media the last 2 days. Those are model images. Not forecast. Those change several times per day. Often the ones that are the most extreme get passed around, the most shares, the most hype and it grows out of control. I think it hit that point yesterday.

Those model images like this one from a few days ago

You know what the same GFS has now for this period

This even includes some upslope after the system passes.

Notice anything🤔. Now this isn’t to say models can’t trend back upward. This is to say there is a fairly big unknown yet

The energy is just entering California. It really needs to clear the Rockies for the models to get a more detailed handle. As of right now.

-it’s a fast mover

– all the energy does not come out and phase and deepen with the weekend event

-it does deepen once it zips off the coast on the current models

-the bigger bundle of energy comes out around Tuesday and that system as of now looks to cut west and would put the region in like for initially a snow setup, then sleet, freezing rain, to plain rain ending as snow as it pulls away. This scenario probably has higher odds than anything major this weekend. NOT writing the weekend system off as being a major event, but it’s looking more likely a quick moving, yet impactful snow that will cause disruptions and poor travel. It’s just not long lasting enough to be considered major. More like a 3-6 maybe 5-10″ event vs 12-24″ type event.

below is the 6z GFS precip type through Wednesday

below is the 0z ECMWF precip type through Wednesday

The 6z GFS mean that combines all 21 ensemble members

The high ground could see a touch of upslope beyond this

below is the 6z ECMWF and its 51 ensemble member mean

Below is the 6z GFS probability of a 6″ snowfall

below is the 6z ECMWF ensemble probability of a 6″ snowfall

and the 6z ECMWF ensemble mean probability of a 12″ snowfall

Squelching the hype. By NO MEANS is any scenario a lock. This could come together and once the energy clears the Rockies modeling could again trend upward. You aren’t going to out guess the modeling.

And for those hoping for a bigger one, the Canadian model is now in your corner

and it’s ensemble probability of a 6″ snowfall

And below the 0z Canadian ensemble probability of a 12″

If there is anything to take away from this post it should be,

trends are lowered

there is yet much uncertainty

Temps this morning are mainly in the 20s, with teens highest Wv elevations and 30s lowlands

and the near term light snow looks like a 1-2″ possibility across the high ground Iater tonight and Thursday a.m

Review of January 3, 2023

Review of January 3, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 3(Wed)

Cloudy early, then more sun than clouds

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Red marked as station lost battery power few hours prior to midnight. Battery replaced on the 4th. Mesowest backfills all the data on their graph
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon “Fridge Spot”
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
West of Bittinger evening

Garrett County Airport

Deep Creek Lake morning
By Deep Creek Lake morning
Meadow Mt at Deep Creek State Park

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts BP

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Station offline

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland

Cranesville

Sang Run

January 2, 2023

January 2, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 2(Tues)

Cloudy, few fine flakes

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Towards Bowman Hill morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon “Fridge Spot”
Bittinger 2nw Valley “experimental spot”

Garrett County Airport

State Park Rd morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
Deep Creek Lake afternoon

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts bp

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Station off

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Buck Valley to Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland to Lavale to Clarysville

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Oakland

Webcam