December 14, 2023

December 14, 2023December 15, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 14, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 14(Thurs)

Sunny, chilly but nice day

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon “Fridge Spot” experimental

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

December 13, 2023

December 13, 2023December 14, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 13, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 13(Wed)

Lots of sun, breezy, chilly

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

33 east of Harman at the Divide

December 12, 2023

December 12, 2023December 14, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 12, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 12(Tues)

Lots of sun sums up the day…

Bittinger 2nw Valley

dyacon data below

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning experimental spot

The Glades

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland

Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville area

33 east of Harman at the Divide

December 11, 2023

December 11, 2023December 14, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 11, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 11(Mon)

Snow last night, some lingering this morning, mostly cloudy with a few brief blue breaks in the a.m.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=12&day=11&hour=20&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland

Deer Park

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Looking across Allegany County with the Sideling Hill cut visible in the distance

Frostburg

To Lavale /Cumberland

Rocky Gap to Martin’s Mt

Town Hill

Webcam

December 10, 2023

December 10, 2023December 14, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 10, 2023

Outlooks:

post made at 6:55am 12/10/23

What- Rainy/Mild to Colder/Snowy/Windy

6:51am Radar 12/10/23

Current Advisories;

Winter Storm Warnings out for the high Wv elevations in the pink shade and Winter Weather Advisories out in the purple shade. These likely will expand in to parts of the southern Pa high elevations and some of the Winter Weather Advisories potentially will creep in to Warning criteria.

My thoughts from yesterday really haven’t changed much. A general 4-8″ with localized higher pops across the high Wv elevations 3500’+ and 3-6″ with localized higher pops 2500-3500′. 2000-2500 2-4″ .

A look at the 0z ECMWF for the event

Snowfall off the models

Short Range Canadian RDPS above. The Canadian RGEM is better than the horrid US Nam for precip.

This is mainly a Sunday PM to Monday AM event. Expect road conditions across the high ground to deteriorate rapidly. If you have traveling across the high ground to do and you can work it in this morning to afternoon hours, that’s best.

The morning temps starting off in the 40s and lows 50s

and by evening those are crashing back to and below freezing. Modeled 7pm temps

modeled midnight

modeled 6am Monday

Temps won’t move a lot Monday as some upslope snows continue in the morning hours across the high ground. This will be accompanied by strong winds blowing the snow around. Initially a wet snow that will transition to a bit more powder as time goes on overnight.

Yesterday I referred to a similar rain to snow setup on Dec 7, 2011 that ended with these type of amounts. Similar numbers could be expected with this. Refer to yesterday’s post by clicking back a day at the bottom of the post

Nws advisories and snowfall maps can be viewed in the drop down menu under snowfall info per Weather Forecast Office.

Review of December 10, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 10(Sun)

Rainy, cloudy, high ground fog, drizzle, changing to snow late day, early evening

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Bittinger 2nw Valley evening around changeover to snow(obviously not visible In pic)

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=12&day=10&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cumberland

Lavale

High Germany Rd

December 9, 2023

December 9, 2023December 14, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 9, 2023

Outlooks:

The what: Mild and nice today a shower cant be ruled out mainly across the southern Alleghenies to mild and rainy tonight and Sunday a.m, few rumbles of thunder possible Sunday a.m and then turning colder, windy, rain to snow through the pm hours, first high Wv mts and expanding. Initially wet snow transitioning to some upslope snow overnight Sunday that will be blowing around Monday.

Uncertainties: How rapid the changeover. How much moisture is left along the western edge of the precip shield and speed of the the moisture exit. Another uncertainty and perhaps the biggest will be how this performs east of the mts with incoming colder air.

The models:

First up the 6z ECMWF

Precip type and time off the 6z ECMWF

Total precip off the 6z ECMWF below

Snowfall off the 6z ECMWF

On to the 6z GFS below

6z GFS Precip Type and timing

Total precip off the 6z GFS below

Snowfall off the 6z GFS below

Temps off the 6z Euro

Modeling has been increasing one run, decreasing the next and back. A few extra of snow on missed hours, a bit less moisture or a bit more will obviously alter the final tallies.

Currently from changeover Sunday through Monday midday when this should be wrapped up

Garrett, Preston, Somerset, Fayette, Westmoreland, Cambria this is looking like a 3-6″ type event. For Tucker, Grant, Randolph, Pendleton, Pocahontas high ground this looks like a 4-8″+ event.

Snowfall off other modeling

Then the wild card areas as you work across the high ground east of the Alleghenies. Potentially some surprises there.

Its been a while since we have had a decent rain to snow system that wasn’t strictly NW flow upslope. This event has a lot of likenesses to the “Moyer” event of 12/7/11

below is that day

Below is forecasted surface map for Sunday

below is the precip with that(very similar)

Snowfall with that event below

If numbers end up coming out something like that Monday morning would be about what is expected. But no 2 are exactly alike and let’s see where modeling goes today. If anything drastically changes a new post will be made here.

Stay tuned to your local NWS for updates, advisories.

NWS Snowfall info is included here per WFO in the drop down menu under Snowfall info

Review of December 9, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 9(Sat)

Cold valley start, sun clouds mix

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=12&day=9&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

McConnellsburg

December 8, 2023

December 8, 2023December 14, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 8, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 8(Fri)

Some clouds early, then mostly sunny

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland area

To Cranesville

Grantsville area

Lavale to Cumberland

Polish Mt

Town Hill

December 7, 2023

December 7, 2023December 8, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 7, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 7(Thurs)

Windy, Clouds and sun mixed

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon Data below

Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon “Fridge Spot”

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′