West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Near Bittinger 2nw morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Garrett County Airport
Mosser Rd morning by Cherry Creek
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts BPMidnight to midnight dyacon DL
Climate Reference Network
–
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
–––––-view towards 7Springs––––––––––––––––
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Sunny day after a clear frosty start. Winds picked up through the day.
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Experimental SpotBittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts BPMidnight to midnight Dyacon DL
Climate Reference Network Station
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
–
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Currently snow falling from northern Garrett and south, and the high ground of Preston and south. Increasing as I type as you go south in the county in to the high Wv locations.
Currently webcams showing bare ground at Keysers Ridge at 2880′ meanwhile a hop skip and jump to Roman Nose at Deep Creek snow sticking down to 2500- 2600′ and above.
Roman Nose 8:30amRoman Nose 8:30am nearly half inchRoman Nose nearly half inch at 8:30am at 3000′Photo from Terra Alta
Overall temps slightly colder than modeled under the heart of the snow area
The cold pool centered central to Southern Garrett, Preston south in to the higher WV locations
above 3000 at Mt.Davis temps still upper 30s
as you work south, even a decrease in elevation temps come down. Around Bittinger snow is in the air, with possibly some brief light coating.
working south of Bittinger on Rock Lodge at 8am some sticking was occurring
Rock Lodge just over 2600′
and a bit further south at 8:40pm snow sticking to near 2500′ as seen from Arrowhead with again more up on Roman Nose
Arrowhead 8:40am
The main focus will shift south through the morning where the best of the light accumulations will fall.
Radar
Model output through this afternoon with the brunt over the next several hours
6z ECMWF 12z HRRR
In the snow zone. This isn’t strictly based on elevation as much as it is being under that core of precip that’s aiding in its own cold air. So these amounts are strictly for the snow zone area.
4000′ and above 1-3″ with isolated more under the heart of the action.
3000-4000- 1-2″ with overall snow zone being a touch colder, Narrows the gap through the snowfall zone based on elevation
2500-3000 coating to 1.5 this is Central Garrett and points south
2000-2500 mainly in the air.
Review of November 10, 2023
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 10(Fri)
Snow of varying rates from central Garrett early a.m, to main snow focus over the Wv High ground. Clearing north to south in the afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley
A brief period of a.m snow with brief sticking
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Roman Nose morning Roman Nose morning Roman Nose morning Roman Nose morning Roman Nose morning Arrowhead morning By Deep Creek afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data MMTS BPSnowfall report through 7am 10/11 which all fell on the 10thUp 32 morning Up 32 morningUp 32 morning Up 32 morning Morning Morning Morning NoonNoonNoonNoonNoon
along with a very mild punch across the high ground. Cooler air currently trapped on the east side of the mts, as shown by the RTMA(Real Time Mesoscale Analysis)
those eastern areas will warm up today, as we gradually cool back down, 3pm temps off the ECMWF below
Temps last night that began cool on areas with a bit of a wedge of cool across North Central and Eastern Garrett, especially the Valleys and points North and east. Once that cool wedge lost its hold, temps off to the races. At Bittinger 2nw Valley, temps jumped from 37 to 61 from 1:30am to 3:30am
On to the snow threat Friday
The Wv high ground should begin to see the wave if moisture pushing across early to mid morning Friday as it changes to snow. Very marginal surface temps to work with, that will limit accumulation and elevation should play a role in areas the accumulate. Models still vary on the northern precip edge. The main area of snow still looks to be focused above 3500-4000′ Canaan to Snowshoe with perhaps the bullseye in the between.
Again not a big event, but a quick hitting rapidly in and gone precip shield.
Model Precip type midday Friday
6z ECMWF6Z GFS0z CanadianThe just in 12z Nam
Modeled afternoon temps accompanying the precip
6z ECMWF 6z GFS0z Canadian
The tops above 4000′ likely come down to around 30-32 at the time if the precip. Below 4000′ temps unlikely to reach freezing. Making accumulation a bit slower. Also accompanied by a lack of wind and milder ground.
Modeled snowfall amounts
6z ECMWF 6z GFS0z Canadian6z ICON
with some manual input
Snowfall amounts look like: (leaning low to mid range with a good performance maxing out)
4000′ and above – 1-3″ potential (including across to North Fork Mt)
3500-4000′- coating to 1.5″
3000-3500′ -coating to 1″
2500-3000′ – brief coatings if any at all. It would take a more moderate clip to get any brief stickage this low.
Review of November 9, 2023
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 9(Thurs)
The warm surge pushed through last night, string winds, cloud cover that lead to mid morning to early afternoon rain. Rainfall outperforming models. Brightening through the afternoon with clouds clouds remaining.
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Near Bittinger 2nw morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake midday Deep Creek Lake midday
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am MMTS BP
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Few scattered showers Thursday, rainfall amounts +/- a tenth
Thurday rainfall off the ECMWF at 6z
Then we watch for the next wave to meet up with just cold enough air for some potential Wv high elevation wet snow. Accumulations mainly above 3000′ as it appears, with some snow falling below that.
Mid morning to early afternoon Friday precip pushes in with temps likely at or above freezing even up to Spruce Knob. Temps will cool throughout the column as it pushes through allowing for what modeling agrees on this morning as a 1-3″ wet snowfall Friday afternoon across the Wv high ground. The main focus appears as of the time of this posting from Canaan to Snowshoe.
Marginal temps, a lack of wind should accompany the brief punch of snow that’s in and out in a 4-6 hour window.
A look at the models for midday Friday
Starting with the 6z ECMWF (Euro)
Precip type2m Temps Friday afternoon Snowfall Amounts
Now on to the 6z GFS
Precip Type2m TempsSnowfall amounts
On the the 0z Canadian
Precip type2m Temps Snowfall
Short range modeling basically in the same general camp. Again tweaks possible and even likely. Timing, and where that precip wave sets up not etched in stone. Not a major event, but a blip of winter potentially here in the early season. This unfortunately does not really create much of a snow making window upcoming, although some nights should allow for it if some areas choose.
Review of November 8, 2023
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 8(Wed)
Chilly start. Mild day. Cooler along the eastern Alleghenies vs Western Alleghenies
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley Afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon testing sensor in mmts Bittinger 2nw Valley evening Bittinger 2nw Valley evening experimental spot
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am mmts BPMidnight to midnight Data Dyacon DL
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
–
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Finally back in operation
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
A quick a.m update on the possible sneaky snow threat Friday. Yesterday the GFS was on it 3 out of 4 runs. Other modeling not so much. The ECMWF (Euro) and Canadian are now on board with just enough cold air catching the northern edge of the precip wave pushing through. It’s still a bit early, as precip track,timing, and cold air push still has to work out as modeled. 72+ hours out, those details can change.
A quick look at the 6z Euro precip type output for Friday.
Also a look at the 6zGFS precip type outlook Friday
Snowfall output off the ECMWF and GFS at 6z for Friday’s brief quick potential wet snow event.
6z ECMWF6z GFS
Toss in the Canadian for good measure
Models in line with one another at the present time. That doesn’t mean it holds, a shift north, south with the precip, colder air slower to work in etc can yet alter the outlook. Will post afternoon model runs later today here as well.
As of now the Wv high ground above 3000-3500′ looks like the best likelihood for accumulation if this occurs.
9:30pm model update
Quick look at afternoon and evening runs. Basically GFS veered away, Euro, Canadian held slight high Wv brief snow threat Friday
18z ECMWF 18z GFS12z Canadian
Review of November 7, 2023
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 7(Tues)
Cloudy a.m, then clouds and sun, windy last night through today.
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Near Bittinger 2nw morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Mchenry afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am mmts BPMidnight to midnight Dyacon
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
not reporting
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void regionally
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Grantsville area to Savage Mt
Shades of DeathSavage Mt Rt 40 looking east to Sideling Hill way in the distance
Nothing real exciting this week to watch. Overnight tonight the SW winds should be on the increase, that will scour out any early temp falls that have occurred in the Valley areas. Northern Canaan Valley station below freezing currently. That should pop rapidly when the winds kick in. Cloud cover and the slight shower threat in to Tuesday.
18z ECMWF as we go through the morning to midday showing the light threat 18z GFS is a bit earlier but again very light
Modeled precip amounts tomorrow
18z ECMWF precip. Very light. Mainly Cambria County and North 18z GFS lighter yet, but a bit more widespread light threat across the Alleghenies
Wednesday the Eastern Alleghenies will hold just a touch cooler the western Alleghenies. A light SE flow with a warm front pushing in West. A bit a of wedge setup. Nothing overly impressive, but enough if you’re traveling Mo-Town to Cumberland, or even Elkins to Keyser, you’ll notice the car thermometer notch down a few east or vice versa westbound.
Wednesday afternoon
18z ECMWF Wednesday afternoon 18z GFS Wednesday afternoon. Pretty close
Showers a bit more widespread on Thursday.
18z ECMWF Thursday midday18z GFS Thursday afternoon. Not as widespread as the Euro
This is where modeling begins to vary. The GFS tries to allow cold enough air for the potential for a wave to push up Friday and catch that for the slight risk of a touch of wet snow Friday. Currently I wouldn’t buy that but it’s worth watching. The modeled 850 temps, essentially the Wv high ground are not very supportive of snow. That will Flux. So its worth watching. The second issue is will the precip push far enough north. So two very borderline ingredients that really have to come together for an unimpressive event. The Euro and most other modeling says natta
12z ECMWF Friday afternoon. Moisture south and coldest air aloft is marginal and mainly Mason Dixon and north 18z GFS. Some dynamic cooling as that slides across. Again. Worth watching as 3 of the last 4 runs have shown a scenario of some wet snow along the north edge of the precip shield trying to occur.
Review of November 6, 2023
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Nov 6(Mon)
Clear cold valley start. Some intervals of clouds and sun through the afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley evening West of Bittinger evening
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am MMTS BPMidnight to midnight DL
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
not reporting
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void regionally
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Allegheny Mountains Weather 