Cloudy start, turning rainy in the morning with heavy rain at times in northern areas, that began to dissipate and shift to other areas in the afternoon and evening
Temp profile this afternoon(Bittinger 2nw Valley, early afternoon temp with rain was 59, a sunny break occured and the brief max of 68 occured)
Radar with estimates.(9pm-9pm) Picked up .87 at Bittinger 2nw Valley
2 day totals, Bittinger 2nw Valley 1.27, USGS(pictured) Grantsville 2″, USGS Davis (pictured) .2, Cabin Mt at Bald Knob .8, Spruce Knob .58
Satellite this afternoon
Flow
Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow
What the hail!
Pics by Rosanna Springston along Highland Scenic Highway in Pocahontas County today. Most pics are from this afternoon at 2pm. 2 are from 7:30am-8am. By looking back over radar data, best that can be told (radar also view by the Charleston office in agreement) that the cell that dropped the hail occured between 8-9pm last night (8/12/18) What is most impressive is, 16-18 hours later the amount of hail that was still laying around. Temps 50s,60s, high humidity, warm ground.
Radar at the time the hail event is believed(pretty certain) to have occured.
And again today some areas experienced hail. This pics sent from Grantsville Md to a social media weather page
SPC again not including the area in the hail threat
Given the low freezing level of 12-13k feet, with the relatively cold upper level low in August, surprised no threat zone back here. Precip heights looked to be 25-30k feet. Surface temps fell mid 50s with the rain, I would venture a guess, a guess only that these hail areas went into the upper 40s when these cells passed by. One area I have no report from is Aurora in Preston County that looked like it should have produced hail as well today. The 3km nam, while hail is not a parameter of the model, it showed a remarkable temp drop with cells, to me indicating hail, as well as a brief dewpoint drop. (Refer to yesterdays post of the model)
18z 3km Nam
2m Temperatures
Simulated Radar
2m Dew Points
12z ECMWF meteogram
18z GFS meteogram
day 9, cool shot? 12z looked nothing like this. However 12z ECMWF 500mb pattern sticks a decent trough east. The surface features, the GFS will pick up on min temp potentials for valleys while ECMWF tends to model high ground. Each model has had the bias for years, the GFS has been modified though and does not pick out mins like it used to. Now I use a formula from the 3km nam for valley mins that has worked well. At any rate, 9 days is a long ways out….many changes will occur.
Valley fog, some areas of clear skies, some areas with clouds to start the day. Cloudiness more so in the Wv mts. Building clouds today, some periods of sunny breaks, showers in the Wv mts morning, with more widespread showers including northern areas later in the day with thunder.
Temp profile this afternoon
Radar with estimates(24 hours 9pm – 9pm) Picked up .4 at Bittinger 2nw Valley
Satellite
Flow
Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow
Henry Oester near Keysers Ridge had hail with the evening storm.
The runs of the 3km Nam kept showing a large 2m temp drop with some of the individual cells. Casual glance not digging to deep into it, I thought it may been modeling some hail. (not a parameter of the model) The SPC had no hail threat near.
Freezing levels looked to run 12-13k feet. Precip tops 25-30k feet with some of the storms. It appears tomorrow should run this isolated risk as well. 500mb “cool” pool overhead with upper level low.
Cloud cover %. Starting off with this in relation to the meteor shower tonight.
2m Temperatures
Simulated Radar
2m Dew Points, some slightly more comfortable air, despite shower threat looks to push in early week. A tad more comfortable feel vs the high dew points of late
12z ECMWF meteogram for Garrett County next 10 days
18z GFS meteogram for Garrett County next 10 days
(meteograms show temps and precip modeled every 6 hours, every step across left to right is in 6 hour intervals)
Cloudy start, some fog. Few showers early, heavy burst Mchenry at 7:30am….skies broke late morning through the afternoon.
Temp profile this afternoon
Radar with estimates(7pm 24 hr estimates, a little overlap of last nights estimate) This morning’s rain isolated. Only trace at Bittinger 2nw Valley, .2 Mchenry
Satellite this afternoon
Flow
Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow
Radar estimated precip 24 hr
Allegheny Mountains Weather 