Days in red was due to a Dyacon outage. Corrected tallies will be adjusted at months end –South end Amish Rd morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningBittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Afternoon Afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data due to Mid October bear attack on station
Snowshoe
–
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Days in red, Dyacon experienced a outage. Only reflected on the chart. All data saved. Numbers will be corrected at months end.Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Garrett County Airport
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
WhiteGrass Cabin Mt cam
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
––
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
–
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data since Mid October due to Bear attack on station
Snowshoe
––
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
no data
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
First out the door this morning, on a “milder” but very windy morning. A wind advisory out in Tucker, but windy throughout the Alleghenies.
Temps are on the 30s. With the exception of some of those deeper valleys, especially in the southern Alleghenies that have not seen the gusty winds kick in and with those calm conditions under clear skies, that area radiational cooling overnight allowing the valleys to get cold and hold.
–
Winds have hit 60mph at Bear Rocks this morning
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Area cams showing the winds. From the water at Deep Creek, some shaking at Timberline, to snow blowing across at the Divide on 33. Those low dewpoints, in spite of temps, still allow the snow to remain powdery enough to blow. Even in the mid to upper 30s. So if you’re in a wind prone area, you still likely have areas of blowing snow.
–
Moving ahead. Winds tend to weaken through the day and more so overnight. Cloud cover will encroach overnight as the winds die. Precipitation begins to push in tomorrow morning around daybreak.
It’s worth watching for some low protected valleys. Especially east side of the Alleghenies there is the potential for there to be some brief pockets of freezing rain initially to start. The clear skies and calm winds will allow those areas to chill off, and if precip gets in early enough tomorrow it can occur before those temps rise above freezing. That’s not a lock, but a possibility.
Lets look at the morning model runs for the coming week starting with the 6z GFS
The incoming rain Monday in to Monday night looks like a general .3 to .6 event
Incoming Tuesday-Wednesday looks like an additional .3 to .75 event
GFS is more bullish on the snowfall after the transition. This aspect will likely flucuate run to run the next 2 days. GFS snow map at the end of the video
–
Temps off the GFS. Shows the early week mild shot being replaced by colder air working back in Wednesday. Other modeling much the same. That too is accompanied by wind, sending windchills back below 0 in areas Thursday morning
–
Now the 6z EURO.
Rain pushing in Monday and amounts very similar to the GFS by Tuesday morning. .3 to .6. (Video pauses at these intervals)
Next Wave off the Euro is a bit faster, weaker vs the GFS and is zipping off the coast. Rainfall .25 to .50 before transition
Snowfall amounts much lower off the Euro
–
Throwing in the Canadian
Rain pushing in Monday. Amounts similar
Tuesday to Wednesday it’s very similar to the GFS. Rainfall slightly more amped up
Transition to snow and amounts similar to the GFS
–
Updates over the coming days as the midweek system begins to become more clear.
Mainly cloudy, areas east some sun. Light fluffy snow through most of the day. Moderate + pockets occured
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .04
SF 1.5
SD 6
Snowfall Month to Date 6.7
Season to Date 23.3
Dyacon Data Below
– dyacon outage left 2 days incomplete. Will be corrected at months end. Or refer to the manual chart above Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown/Beachy morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoonBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Towards Bowman Hill afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Carmel Cove iceDeep Creek Lake midday
Last nights heavy period of snow that featured some thundersnow, and strong winds saw the heavy precip shield moving away at daylight. Some lingering flakes and pockets of snowshowers today and intervals with sun, and extremely windy.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip +
snowfall 4.5
snowdepth 6
month to date 5.2″
season to date 21.8″
Dyacon Data below
Dyacon outage lead to an incomplete chart. All data was recorded. Chart will be manually corrected at months end–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning ” vehichle stuckWest of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning, station battery swap and reboot after technical issues yesterday. Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
2am Mosser Rd as the main period was just beginning Mosser Rd morning Mosser Rd morning Mchenry morning Garrett College morning Abbots Bliss middayAbbots Bliss-Railey Rental Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Timberline opening day
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
–Video by Logan BurrVideo by Logan Burr
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data due to mid October bear attack on the station
Snowshoe
Opening Day
–
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
67.8mph gust Cabin Mt2/Dolly Sods
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
A nice sunrise, early a.m sun and a rapid cloud cover spreading across. Late afternoon/evening snow/graupel shower . Milder 30s.
Important note. Dyacon, the station provider to many of the daily stations listed here, having service provider cellular issues of some sort with all the stations dropping offline. Fingers crossed this is a brief issue.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .02
SF .2
SD 2.0
Snowfall Month To Date .7
Snowfall Season to Date 17.3
Dyacon Data Below
– dyacon outage led to incomplete data. I will manually correct this at the end of the month. So look to December 31st for the correction. The graph is correct Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW 2NW evening grapel Bittinger 2NW Valley evening graupel snowBittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger eveningBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
The Glades
A throwback picture to 2017 on this date
Garrett County Airport
Mosser Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning rapid cloud cover crossing. Blue sky to solid cloud cover in minutes
Top of Wisp
–Morning Afternoon Afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
––
A throwback on a beautiful early winter day 9 years ago today below.
–––
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
No data due to mid October bear attack on the station
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Comparison vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
,
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Before we hop to the incoming event, let’s start with this morning. A beautiful sunrise near Bittinger below
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Those early morning temps ranging from the single digits in those southern Allegheny Mountain valleys that went clear and calm overnight. You’ll see in the images below, to many areas of teens and some low 20s elsewhere.
–
Under SW winds today we mild up a bit ahead of the incoming cold front in to the 30s.
Now, for the Blizzard Warnings in place
What is a blizzard warning. Thoughts may go to the Blizzard of 93′, January 96′, Sandy, or even a few weeks ago. The actual criteria for a blizzard warning does not require an extreme event such as those. While Blizzard Warnings have been infrequently used in the past, by definition they could have been used much more in our recent past. So do not become confused with it being issued more frequently now based off the criteria. In reality, that criteria alone could have lead to a hundred blizzard warnings since the turn of the century and we’ve only had a handful. It really wasn’t used to the the actual definition of the criteria needed. Now it is. Thats a change. Not that blizzards are increasing.
by definition:
–
So this event should meet the criteria needed. It’s not the blizzard of 93 or an event keeping you housebound for a week. Actually by next week this time, very few remains may be seen.
The areas in the warning below:
–
THE NWS EXPECTED AMOUNTS:
–
Personally I still like the 3-6″ tonight in to daylight Thursday. The brunt of that occuring between midnight and 8am. Some does occur prior and after that period. Through Friday an additional 1-3″. So my thoughts are slightly lower, but overall in the general ballpark.
Modeling doesn’t put out an abundance of liquid(which will be snow, all snow)
The 6GFS through 8am Thursday. .25 to .45. Ratios initially start 9-12 to 1 and increase .
–
Precip totals off the 6z GFS through Friday pm. Another .1 to .2. Given ratios another 2-4″ potentially off the GFS with ratios around 20+ to 1.
–
The 6z EURO, similarities to the GFS.
–
Through Friday pm.. it’s a bit less rambunctious on additional amounts. .02 to .1. So .5 to 2.0″ additional.
–
That translates to these snowfall maps off the models
-6z GFS
–
-6z Euro
–
Again, snowfall output isn’t anything that’s going to wow. The intense period will make for poor travel tonight, and the wind plus snowfall will create poor visibility. When the brief period of intense snowfall passes by, wind and snowshowers will still create poor visibility at times and expect roadways, even some main roads to stay snowcovered Thursday with falling temps. Temps/wind combo will also create low windchills. As seen below off the Euro
-TEMPS
–
-Wind
–
-Windchills(grey = below 0)
–
Be prepared and stay tuned to your local NWS for updates and the Facebook page will be updated regularly.
Mostly cloudy, a few glimpses of sun. At daybreak and sunset mostly. Some very light fluff.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .01
precip Year to date 49.12
SF .1
SD 2″
Snowfall month to date .5″
snowfall season to date 17.1″
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Foxtown Rd morning Peat Moss Rd near The Glades morning Peat Moss Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd morning Cherry Creek Cove Deep Creek Lake morning State Park Rd morning Meadow Run cove Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Pics all from the afternoon
––––––––––––
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no data due to mid October bear attack on station
Snowshoe
––––
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Timing of the snow aspect of the event looks to occur near midnight tomorrow night and the brunt wrapped up around daylight or so Thursday. There will be a bit of snow prior to the time frame, and a bit occuring through Thursday afternoon in to Friday. That said, the 11pm Wednesday to 8am Thursday looks to be the window of the intense period beginning NW and sweeping across.
Personally I like 3-6″ totals for the event in the favored upslope zones with localized higher pops. The heavy aspect is not a long lived event. It’s a brief, but intense period of heavy snow. The brunt falls in that short window mentioned and from Thursday midday through Friday a.m an additional 1-3″ may occur at various rates.
Expect very poor travel in that window tomorrow night in to the day Thursday.
THE NWS WATCHES BELOW:
THE NWS EXPECTED AMOUNTS BELOW:
On the models
GFS through 1pm Thursday
GFS through 4pm Friday adding a bit of additional
Euro through 1pm Thursday
Euro through 4pm Friday with just a bit of additional
Accompanying the event is strong gusty winds
Running the 18z Euro wind gust loop..often a bit overdone
With temps like this below
That accompanied by those strong winds, windchills will fall below 0 again across the high ground. Windchills below
To note, a all snow event across the high ground
Initially below 3000′- 3200′ surface temps may be just above freezing. With a steep lapse rate and lower levels that are not saturated, you’ll evaporative cooling to freezing at the surface very fast upon precip reaching the ground
Next image, as lower level begin saturating, precip encroaching
Next image, the window of the heaviest snow.bam, temps fall in to the upper 20s.
Those images modeled off the Euro for the Garrett County Airport at 2933′.
Allegheny Mountains Weather 