November 23, 2024

November 23, 2024November 25, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

November 23, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 23(Sat)

Wet snow continued overnight. Heavy early in the night. Lighter and occasionally snizzle and drizzle occuring. Areas of light wet snow, drizzle today with the Wv tops in the fog, light wet snow and freezing drizzle on the tops. Accumulation ended early.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip multi day liquid equivalent 1.76.(.16 today liquid) I will note the 4″ gauge at times would build around up the rim with snow(I fixed multiple times) which likely had some impact in the gauge towards a slightly lower catch.

New snowfall 4.4 at 7am. A trace after 7am. Event total 14.2″, season to date total 14.2″. Max depth of 12″ occured at 2:30am and was at 11″ at 7am.

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Further down the Sods in the Big Stonecoal area

Andrew Lilly “To say the conditions were adverse would be a large understatement. Logged wind gust of34 mph, but know there were some higher winds than that, plus plenty of snow and drifting. Woke up to 18” of fresh, wet & heavy snow, which made navigating through the laurel amd rhodos a bit tricky. Despite the conditions, I had a blast and the beauty of the Sods was spectacular.”

his pics below:

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

no data due to mid October bear attack on station

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

– anemometers all froze up from freezing drizzle at around the same time

Winds gusting to over 30mph as it froze up

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Much of the low level moisture flying under radar across the high ground

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

upper part of Frostburg to lower has a significant snow cover variation

Lavale to Cumberland

Green Ridge

Town Hill

view towards Emmaville Mt

7Springs

Whitegrass

November 22, 2024

November 22, 2024November 23, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

November 22, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 22(Fri)

The day began with a bit of fog, even a touch of fine snow, freezing mist, rime, and that transitioned to increasing snow rates, strong winds. Blizzard Warnings in Wv. Poor driving conditions throughout the area.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip +SN

snowfall 5pm 8.0″ , event total 9.8″ season total 9.8″. Depths 7-8″ at 5pm

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning, as the snow began to pick up

West of Bittinger midday

Foxtown Rd midday

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

no data due to mid October bear attack on the station

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

Morning

Afternoon below

Webcams

First Blizzard Warnings since Sandy

November 21, 2024

November 21, 2024November 23, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

November 21, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 21(Thurs)

Cloudy, snow showers, few squalls. Most prevalent in the Wv high ground morning. Area wide afternoon

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip .61+

snowfall 1.8″, momth to date 1.8″, season to date 1.8″

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2024&month=11&day=21&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill Creek at Northcraft

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/lavale-toll-gate-house

Savage Mt to Grantsville

The Yough at Sang Run

Cranesville

–

Oakland

November 20, 2024

November 20, 2024November 23, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

November 20, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 20(Wed)

Foggy, cloudy start. Some areas of brief sun, cloudy with showers late

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip +L

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

no date due to mid October bear attack on station

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valley

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Lavale to Cumberland

Town Hill

33 East of Harman at the Divide

Latest On The Snow Thoughts and Tweaks

November 20, 2024November 20, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

Latest On The Snow Thoughts And Tweaks

November 20, 2024 7:00am

Latest NWS Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Expect this map to evolve today

Latest expected snow total from the NWS

Running the models

6z GFS

Snowfall off the GFS . The tweak would continue to be a bit earlier in the main period occuring Friday. While the central and southern Alleghenies look to best Thursday. The main period that looked like Friday Pm and overnight now looks to be mid morning Friday through 7-10 am through 7-10pm.

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Temperatures through the event and Thanksgiving week. Models have been all over the place with temps next week. From a warm surge to a colder push. Back and forth model to model. Overnight runs saw the colder push win out on most modeling. Will it hold? This is why you’ll see so much variance on your phone app that’s based off the GFS.

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Sounding off the 6z GFS(k2g4-Garrett County Airport). This would suggest Friday night as precip lightens areas below 2500′ could transition to a bit of light rain. As long as precip rates hold up, snow would occur to 1800-2500. Friday evening in to the night. Below that, likely transition to rain. 2500-3000′ temps creep up to 32-34° overnight. Wet snow that may potentially end as light flakes or mist, drizzle Saturday a.m . Snow compaction will occur. If you are recording snowfall. Your max, in which that’s the objective to record will likely be prior to 7a.m reporting time Above 3000-3500 temps should hold 32 and below

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The 6z ECMWF below. Much the same as the GFS

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6z ECMWF snowfall

6z ECMWF sounding (k2g4 -Garrett County Airport) This suggest much the same as the GFS above

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In Summary

Initial snow tonight after the changeover looks minimal. Inch or less.
Thursdays upslope, (the coldest period as well) looks best for the central and southern Alleghenies, with a squall potential that exist though all across the Alleghenies Thursday.
The heaviest period looks to occur Friday 7am to 10am window through 7pm to 10Pm window. That’s bumped up from a few days ago.
Upslope zones Garrett/Preston and north 8-14″, best highest Wv upslope areas 12-18″. To Note-SNOWFALL IS NOT SNOW DEPTH, ESPECIALLY OVER A MULTI DAY EVENT.
Strong gusty winds accompany the event. Creating blowing and drifting and at times, whiteout conditions.
Expect poor travel across the high ground at times and the worst being during the day Friday.
Resort snow making window is limited with the event. 24-30 hrs Garrett and north. 30-48hrs Wv high ground. Borderline temps and a saturated airmass are not prime for snow making.
Liquid equivalent output now through Saturday 1.25 to 2.25″. This will greatly benefit the ground water situation.

November 19, 2024

November 19, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

November 19, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 19(Tues)

Mainly cloudy, few light areas of showers

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip .01

West of Bittinger morning

Bittinger 2NW Valley evening (snow stake. Not to measure accumulation with, just for casual obs of depth in a non wind prone location)

Bittinger 2NW Valley evening (another like above)

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area Temps

Sods Plateau

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Late Week Snow Potential November 21-23

November 18, 2024November 18, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

Late Week Snow Potential November 21-23

6:41pm 11/18/24

NWS out with Winter Storm Watches for the highlighted counties below

A jump in to the late day model runs. Models coming in to some agreement as you’ll see below

First up the 18z GFS

12 ECMWF (Euro)

The initial changeover Wednesday night, Thursday morning is a very minimal aspect as far as snow goes. Some light coatings possible.

As this looks now. The Thursday pm snows look best towards the central and southern Alleghenies. South of Canaan or Canaan and south.

As you go towards the Mason Dixon the best snow period looks Friday or more Friday pmish in to the overnight.

Let’s look quickly at liquid equivalent off the models. From anytime after late Wednesday night/Thursday 12:00am this is snow fall across the high ground.

In the image below, the Euro through 10pm Wednesday. This is primarily rainfall. In general the model shows .3 to .4 precipitation has fell.

Let’s hop forward to 7am FridayBy this time. Modeling puts out only .1 to .2 additional liquid north since 10pm Wednesday. This precip will all be in the snow form across the high ground. It puts .3 to .4 south which again is all snow across the high ground.

Now from 7am Friday through early Saturday afternoon. 1.25 liquid to 1.5 liquid since 10pm Wednesday that will be in the snow form. Again, stressing these are modeled numbers. Not a forecast. That said the greatest precip/snow period looks Friday -early Saturday a.m for most with the Thursday period looking better south.

That was the Euro, now how about the GFS. (See below)

A bit less moisture on the front end off the GFS. At 5am Thursday and this all occured mainly as rainfall. The GFS has put out .15 to .30 area wide.

Let’s jump to 7am Friday .1 to .3″ additional liquid north(in the form of snow though) .5 to .7 south since 5am Thursday. So the early outlook is the first part of this event is more impressive south vs north and that’s typical with the wrap around upslope.

Now let’s jump to Saturday afternoon. Bam, 1-1.5″ liquid with a few intense streamers possible. You set up a intense streamer, those can progress east further than expected, drop temps to cold enough levels at lower elevations for stickage.. so Friday a.m at 7. Northern areas if this plays out like this, may be saying this isn’t performing as expected, when in reality the best period is yet to occur.

Since we just looked at liquid outlook. See how the model shows that in snow form

First up the 12z EURO.(18z Euro was similar)

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Now the 18z GFS

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And the 12z Canadian

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18z ICON(10 to 1, highest elevations at times should do better than 10 to 1)

Given what’s out there now data wise… 8-14″ Garrett, Preston and north in the western upslope zones look possible over the period.(7Springs, Mt.Davis, Bittinger, Mchenry, Oakland, Cranesville, Terra Alta, etc) As you work east in Garrett, amounts tail off 5-10″ in the eastern part of the county. These being multi day totals with the greatest period Friday-Saturday a.m

The favored Wv upslope zones. Temps a bit colder. Amounts 12-18″ look possible with localized pops of 18″+. Southern parts doing best with the early part and continues in to Saturday.

With all predicted ranges, I lean low to mid range with a good performance reaching the top end.

All subject to tweaks, changes in the coming 2 days.

Temps off the GFS each afternoon. Coldest period Thursday-Friday pm. Saturday we begin to ease out under that coldest core.

Last aspect, but not the least. The event is accompanied by strong winds. First after the front Wednesday pm. Strong gusty. Expect 50mph plus winds across the WV high ground. This is without snow blowing and drifting. That aspect kicks in as we go through the Thursday pm-and especially Friday pm early Saturday period.