A developing low pressure in to the lower lakes Wednesday in to Thursday will bring initially a rain to snow setup. The transition to snow over the high ground should occur rather rapidly later Wednesday night in to Thursday.
How things evolve late Thursday in to the weekend with the backside upslope potential will be the determining factor how significant of an event this is. The placement of the deep upper low, the duration will determine the qpf of the event. The GFS and Canadian are a much more prolonged snowy event vs the Euro.
The GFS below
The Canadian below
The Euro
The amount of precip output variance off the GFS and Euro is significant.
The GFS 72 hour Sunday a.m which covers the brunt of the initial snow and upslope event. Putting out in excess of 2″ of liquid, which would be snow across the high ground.
The Euro much much less.
Forecast likely will trend colder as we get closer.
Let’s look at the 850 temps. Essentially the WV high ground temps
Thursday morning off the GFS , that’s -7c or around 19-20° F. That’s not a borderline marginal temp setup. From Thursday through Sunday -4 to -7c is the range through the period. As long as it’s precipitating, there is no daytime diurnal across the tops. You would expect temps above 3500′-4000′ feet to run in the 20s for the event. 2500-3500 27-34° with the maxes occuring during precipitation lulls in which the GFS limits and the Euro gives more opportunity for slightly “less cold” surface conditions. Snowfall can occur down to the lower elevations with 1- heaviest intensity 2-nighttime periods.
The difference in the 2 models is the difference of a 4-8″ upslope snowfall event vs a 10-20″+ snowfall event. The Canadian laying in the middle for the typical favored upslope areas. That tails off east side.
Accompanying the snow, strong NW winds
off the gfs
winds gusting 30-45+mph. Strong temps, well below freezing temps. It takes minutes to get stickage going across those tops in those scenarios. A repeated bogus statement all the time by many is “ground is too warm”. Once you get several inches of accumulation, the marginal warmer ground will cause some underneath melt. That’s to be expected. After a week of rain and 30s, that ground is not that warm at present.
If the GFS scenario plays out, Whitegrass xcountry skiing is in business next weekend. Significant snowfall, significant blowing and drifting.
I’ll avoid attaching model snowfall maps
1- due to high variance
2- long ways out
More thoughts will occur as we go day to day towards the event.
Cloudy, foggy, drizzle, showers, dreary beginning to end
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .22
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Old Cherry Glade church morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Dung Hill Rd morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
The Glades
––––––
Garrett County Airport
Mchenry morning Mosser Rd at Cherry Creek morning Railey Cam afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
––
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
–
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no data due to Mid October Bear attack on the station
––
Snowshoe
–
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Cloudy, SE winds. Rain incoming.. some high ground areas held freezing most of the day and saw freezing rain. Some onset sleet pellets reported and flakes as well. For most a cold rain. A hybrid type wedge event.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .41
Dyacon Data Below
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
The Glades
Garrett County Airport
Mchenry morning Mosser Rd morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning State Park Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning By Garrett College afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
––
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no station data due to mid October Bear attack on station
Snowshoe
––––
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
– Allegheny Front area running colder in this “hybrid ” wedge setup. Baldy dropped briefly with evaporational cooling as precip began Bear Rocks (Dy025) freezing up
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
–
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Sun, some clouds, a cold start, chilly day with a SE breeze
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Viewer
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Glade Church morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning “he wanted in the pic”Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening West of Bittinger morning
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning Sand Flat Rd morning Deep Creek Lake midday
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Snow gun test
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no data since mid October Bear attack on station
Snowshoe
–––––
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Lots of morning clouds, pm sun. Winds died through the day
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening West of Bittinger evening
Garrett County Airport
–Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no data due to mid October Bear attack on station
–
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
After last nights rain departed and early a.m clouds, a pleasant sunny, albeit breezy day occured.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .76″ (since 5pm 11/10)
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening
Garrett County Airport
–
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
–
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no data due to mid October Bear attack on station
–
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High,High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Allegheny Mountains Weather 