The continued above average temps and dry weather continued in to this week, with some slight relief beginning on Wednesday. Some rainfall occuring across the area in what had been a very dry first half of July on the heels of a very dry June and second half of May.
Sines Deep Creek Coop 1.20- also in that heavier Wednesday round
Mchenry 4.8SE cocorahs .54
Grantsville 2.0ESE cocorahs .32
Savage River Dam .51
Allegany County Md
Frostburg Coop .16
Cumberland Coop .31
Somerset County Pa
Somerset Coop .94
Berlin 3.1NW cocorahs 1.11
Laurel Summit Coop .90
Mt.Davis PSU Mesonet .65
Tucker County Wv
Davis 3SE Coop 1.16
Canaan Valley Coop .89
Blackwater Gauge-Davis USGS .46
Canaan Valley State Park USCRN .59
Cabin Mt-Western Sods-Virginia Tech .66
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob-Virginia Tech .45
Grant County
Bayard Coop .30
Maysville IFlows .31
Petersburg ASOS .15
Preston County
Mountain Dale Iflows .44
Cadell Mountain Iflows .36
White Ridge Iflows .52
Terra Alta 4.9NE cocorahs 1.12
Terra Alta 0.4E cocorahs .47
Bruceton Mills 9.3SE(Big Bear) cocorahs. 82
Randolph County
Elkins Jennings-Randolph Field. 32
Beverly CWOP .80
Pendleton County
Spruce Knob Iflows and Virginia Tech both at .28
Judy Gap CWOP .28
Kile Knob Iflows .96
Pocahontas County
Cass 3.7SE cocorahs .41
Snowshoe CWOP .78
Black Mt Iflows .76
Bartow 1S Coop .18
Some haves and have nots, but at this point anything is better than nothing. As of Thursday Drought Monitor Update, areas along and east of the Alleghenies elevated to D3 drought status
State by State
Short Term Status
Soil Moisture Maps
The drought again really began Mid May and data and maps display quite well
30 days percent of normal
60 days percent of normal
90 day percent of normal
and the 180 day percent of normal which gets close to the first of the year and year to date totals really aren’t that bad. That does not though mitigate the short term dry/heat, evaporative demand combo
and you can see how around early June the drought conditions from the previous dry week began to set in
Up through May 15th year to date precip departures. Things were looking good from the Mason Dixon and north.
-May 15 to July 18
-Breaking it down from 2nd half of May, June, and now in to July
May 15-May 31 Precip Departure
June 1 to June 30 Precip Departure
July 1 to July 18 Precip Departure
Year To Date Departure. As you get near and north of the Mason Dixon year to date isn’t all that bad. Even above normal precip as you go north. Even though those locations have dried out in recent weeks and with above normal temps, evaporative demand, dry conditions set in rapidly.
Year to date Precip
that data is developed from
area locations:
Bittinger 2NW Valley 32.45
Last year, year to date I stood at 28.38. The impacts of how and when the lack of moisture occurs is huge.
Other sites
Somerset Coop up 4″ year to date vs last year
Laurel Summit, down 3″ vs last year but above normal season to date
Davis 3SE , less than .3 separation vs last year year to date.
Bayard , up over 2″ vs last year
The period Jan 1 through May 15 this year
Last year
from May 15 through July 18th this year
Last year
Dry both years, as the drought monitor indicates
Not as extreme as this year
Last year’s temps for the period May 15 to July 18
May 2023
This May
Last June
This June
Last July
This July
Last year my summer max temp was 82.6°at Bittinger 2nw Valley, this year I’ve exceeded 82.6° 11 times, with a max of 86.9° . Nearly all area stations running well above typical “hot” days.
The combo of heat, and dry weather takes a toll on vegetation. One noticeable change occuring in recent weeks locally in Garrett County has been the drought, heat stress on yellow birch.
Below is from the Carmel Cove area in Garrett County. Also seen in many other areas with yellow birch. Areas along water ways that are typically moister and cooler at nights have escaped this. Other tree species at both higher and lower elevations will show drought and heat stress of variability based on species and tolerance.
For July 18th, that’s a product of drought/heat stress that isn’t typical, but at the same time is very much in line with year to year weather variability.
others at lower elevations
Sycamore near Hancock MD
Hillside at Lavale
Waterways are very low across the region
Bittinger 2NW Valley
May 15 below
June 16th below
July 18th Below
Will we see continued impacts or will things gradually improve.
The climate prediction centers sees improving drought conditions
In the near term modeling brings hope, as it has in recent weeks that’s failed, with the bit of help this past week. Thats a start. Very common dry leads to more dry, and wet weathers leads to more. Once you lose surface moisture, you lose more evaporation, evapotranspiration, you hinder the typical pop up storms, showers that are often a frequent summer water source.
Now this week we made a gain with moisture and that accompanied with a slight pattern shift, wetter and more seasonable times look to lay ahead. Which we desperately need the moisture.
Here’s the 6z GFS precipitation outlook next 10 days
the 10 day anomaly with normal to above
The 0z ECMWF (Euro)
the 10 day anomaly , above normal
Temps for the period off the Euro ensemble , showing a much more seasonal outlook . It’s summer, so its still warm. Don’t let blue colors lead you to think chilly, it’s normal vs the average for the time of year.
The Euro Weeklies 46 day outlook , this comes with high variability and greater error as we go out in time
and when temps overall are average in a wetter pattern, that can often mean daytime maxes are held in check and nighttime mins may be held up a bit for periods. The 46 day precip anomaly off the Euro weeklies
The dry, warm summer is very much in the norms of year to year change that create our average
Rain last night, cloudy and patchy lingering drizzle at daybreak, then mostly cloudy with a bit of sun increasing afternoon north.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
rainfall .30
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon “Black eyed susan”Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Towards Bowman Hill afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Mchenry morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Road morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake middaySouth end Meadow Mt at Deep Creek State Park. Canker work damage mostly recovered. Some trees recovering may be under drought stress Meadow Mt at Deep Creek State Park middayCarmel Cove at Deep Creek. Yellow Birch under drought stress with some early color. Deep Creek Lake middayRock Lodge Rd afternoon “Red Fox”Rock Lodge Rd midday “Red Fox”
Top of Wisp
Morning
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
–
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Lots of clouds, few showers. Little sun. Evening showers ahead of cold front
Bittinger 2NW Valley
rainfall .08
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening West of Bittinger evening
Garrett County Airport
Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning Mchenry morning Deep Creek Lake morning 219-Glendale morning Deep Creek Lake evening
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
–
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
–
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Some localized areas of predawn showers, then sun, clouds, breezy, hot day, followed up with a evening round of much needed showers and storms
Bittinger 2NW Valley
rainfall-late
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon West of Bittinger evening Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening
–
Garrett County Airport
Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
Station getting some artificial heating
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Suspicion fan had malfunctioned causing shield to not aspirate and heat up beyond actual air temp
–
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
A warm to hot sunny day with a few brief cloudy intervals. Breezy.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morningBittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon West of Bittinger evening
Garrett County Airport
State Park Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd afternoon Railey Cam morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Suspicions are the fan in the radiation shield is having some issues and not functioning properly. Therefore this can lead to max temps being a bit exaggerated
–
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
–
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley middayUp from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
–
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
–
Atop Canaan Ski area
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
–
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
–
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningUp from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
–
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
–
Atop Canaan Ski area
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
––
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
–
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Missed opportunities were the theme of this week as the Alleghenies remain well below normal in terms of precipitation. The remnants of Beryl passing by north as seen below on the previous 3 day precipitation amounts
and now adding insult to injury, some hefty rains passing by east upcoming through tomorrow morning as modeled below off the Euro.
Leaving us missing out on 2 golden opportunities to put a dent in the current rainfall deficit.
So far July is starting out dry and as we push halfway through the month. With most areas falling well under a inch month to date. Some areas under a tenth. July deficits through the date-
The lack of rain though has been ongoing since around mid May when things really began drying out.
since May 15th at Bittinger 2NW Valley I’ve seen 4.92″
other areas since May 15th, with comparisons to other years
Cassleman Gauge at Grantsville 4.23″
At Bayard 7.59″
Elkins 5.37
Frostburg 3.53
Savage River Dam 4.17
Davis 3SE (Canaan Heights) 6.98″
Canaan Valley
Blackwater Gauge at Davis 6.16″
All of these numbers running well below the average for the period
60 day Anomalies
60 day percentage of normal
Temps the previous 60 days overall running above normal
Since July 1
Below normal precip, above normal temps has continued to worsen the current drought situation. As of July 9th the:
Drought Monitor now looks like
state by state
4 Week Evaporative Drought Demand
Soil Moisture
Stream Flow
Glade Run near Bittinger. Many area waterways running low.
From a historical perspective, this pattern has repeated itself many times. We are in a period of time where every event is hyped as “worst ever, driest ever, wettest ever, hottest ever, etc”. It’s simply a product of a pattern that’s occured before, will occur again. With weather there are averages. Not normals. Normal is the worst word ever to describe what should happen any given day, month, year. Our averages are made up of extremes. For a historical perspective let’s look at the long running Drought Severity index
This for the Allegheny Region of Wv
July
August
That’s pretty dang consistent.
Summertime precip (June-Aug)
Pretty consistent on the ebbs and flows of wet,dry,wet,dry.
With more hot weather ahead , and for the most part dry through Sunday, the current conditions will likely get a bit worse before they get better.
The potential outlook as we get through this next bout of heat that goes in to next week is, as it passes, we see a increased storm risk. Yes, storms often generally produce a lot of runoff with the ground this hard, but anything is better than nothing. That’s the initial potential and a bit further out as we go to the last 3rd of July, the ridge looks to build in the west and that leaves the mid Atlantic and southeast with a bit more low pressure and cooler conditions. That’s at least a hint on modeling for now. These dry patterns often are hard to get rid of. Dry breeds dry. Dry also aids in heat.
In terms of heat. As it’s been above normal. Again, from a historical perspective. This is not viewed in a lense of, it’s never been this bad. We are not even close to some of the recorded hottest periods recorded locally.
Let’s hop back to some incredibly hot summers. The hottest period on record for many area stations occured in August of 1918. The 7 day Avg Max Temp at Frostburg was a whopping 97.5
at Cumberland 103! Also tied in July of 1936 we’ll get to in a sec
To note, I am not positive of the daily recording time. It may have been 5pm to 5pm recording station. If that’s the case, that’s why you see a double 109, 101. In these cases that does impact the 7 day avg max. That would take some more digging in to.
the original form
I do believe that’s 5pm, some of the prior month forms appear to be 5. So, this does throw some issues in compiling data, max,mins. Now days most coop stations are 7am recordings. In which come transitional and winter seasons, daily mins are often duplicated. It presents a challenge if you want to compare. At any rate, that period of heat is impressive!
Oakland
–––
the period in maps
as a impressive of a heat dome as you’ll get!
in 1936, July
Grantsville
Westernport
Bayard
a intense week but less impressive vs 1918. The intensity centered west initially
The longterm Summertime Temp trends (Jun-Aug)
Garrett County
Bayard Summers
This season overall avg stands at 66.3. The variable is recording time/site change which is nearly impossible to dissect that variable.
Looking ahead
euro 7day temp Anomalies. Showing a reprieve after this next 5 day period
Allegheny Mountains Weather 