Rainfall will continue to work through the day today in to the overnight, before colder air works in and we see things begin to flip to some snow activity.
Before the changeover to snow, rainfall tallies look to range in the .75 to 1.50 range
6z ECMWF below
6z GFS below
The chilly temps of this morning, mainly 30s,40s
Those number will not go far today under the wet conditions. 6z ECMWF temps below
As the colder air works in, so does the opportunity for snow activity. That snow activity should increase through the day Sunday. We are in March now. The higher sun angle adding surface warmth with the cold unstable air mass pushing in will only add to the instability through the afternoon and in to the early overnight Sunday.
Expect squalls and enlongated squalls Sunday afternoon in to the overnight. With those, some areas do miss out on the snow while others are in the snow. With the higher sun, slightly warmer ground. Some mid range elevations in the upslope zones 2500′-3000′ and below areas may even bare off from the lighter morning snows unless under some more persistent activity. So overall snow totals will vary. Location to location.
1- elevation, 2- persistentcy of snow activity will play a role in accumulation totals.
That said, those warmer roadway temps will rapidly cool under temps in 20s, strong winds and any squalls can rapidly cover roadways creating poor travel.
The modeled snowfall
6z ECMWF
6z GFS
Likely those amounts will be low in places that see persistent squalls. While some of the lighter amounts will even melt off some.
Some of the mesoscale modeling does of better job of hinting at this. Using the Canadian short range here as the U.S mesoscale models look a bit bizarre this morning.
Here you can see the model hinting at streamers and or elongated squalls. Those are the ones where if you are under you are saying wow, this is over performing, if you are not under, oh this is a dud. Impossible to tell where they set up best. A area that frequently seems to get under those is the I68 area.
The NWS is out with advisories. Also the NWS snowfall links are included on the page under “snowfall info” on the drop-down links on mobile or it should be visible on non mobile devices.
The details in the winter weather advisory are as follows
The NWS snowfall map looks like
I’d lean a general 2-4″ totals with higher pops.
This is also accompanied by strong winds. So along with the Winter Weather Advisories are wind advisories
Modeled winds off the 6z ECMWF
Things moderate Monday. The winds stay up, temps back to the 30s, low 40s and then high pressure moves over and those winds die and we have a moderated air mass with more daytime diurnal warmth Tues-Thurs. That’s accompanied by yet low dewpoints and calmer conditions for that duration. Low dewpoints and light winds are the best combo to limit snow melt for the area resorts that will remain open after the weekend. Further out, some rain to snow again as we go through next weekend and models all hint at some bouts of cold and snow from then through Easter. Mild blips will be bound to occur as well.
A.M fog in areas. Mainly cloudy, few glimpses of sun
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Rock Lodge near The Glades morningRock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morningUp from Bittinger 2NW Valley morningBittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Whitegrass Cam
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Light shower pre-dawn, cloudy with areas of light rain today. Areas of thick fog
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Dyacon Data below
West of Bittinger morningUp from Bittinger 2nw valley morning Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morningBy Sand Flat Rd morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Refinance Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski Area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Is winter done? Well to say anything for certain would be silly. Time and time again, models have lead many astray this winter. There is some reason to believe them now. One is, as the seasonal transition of winter to spring, wave lengths shortern, patterns will progress. That’s exactly where the models go. It is a ways out. The gut says a 7-15 day wintry period will setup as we progress later in to the month and begin April. It would not be a shock to see astronomical spring begin wintry and lasting through Easter. Not a lock. But the look is there.
Lets look at modeling and watch as this progresses over the coming weeks.
Starting with the 18z GFS ensemble at our current time
and we end like
The ECMWF ensemble control. We begin like this
and it ends like
The ECMWF ensemble begins
and we end like
The Canadian ensembles begin like
and we end like
ECMWF WEEKLIES control in that period 7 day anomaly
and the Weeklies 7 day anomaly
The ECMWF AI model begins like
and ends like
The teleconnections fit the look
Slightly negativeSlightly negative, the very end of the period will be the focus Big modeled EPO drop…that will progress the pattern with a building western ridge as shown by the PNA going positive
As we progress to that time period the high elevations are still well within play for some winter fun. The higher sun angle and cold air masses always can create some good instability for squalls…some blocking going on, shorter wave lengths can tighten up a strong low. It may be a interesting period and not uncommon to get this mild weather to prelude patterns like may potentially occur..
The potential light upslope Sunday is in non relation to what may occur later on. That’s a blip that comes and comes, not a hit with any attempt to hold.
Review of March 5, 2024
Review of March 5, 2024
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Mar 5(Tues)
A variety of conditions from west to east. The Alleghenies and west had a pleasant day while east was wet and more dreary. That dreariness of fog, low clouds had made its way back to parts of the Alleghenies early a.m before departing by mid morning.
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Dyacon data below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Near Bittinger 2nw morning Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morningBittinger 2nw Valley morningBittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoonBittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley evening Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening
Garrett County Airport
Hearing peepers along Mosser Rd along Bear Creek area.
Mchenry morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
–
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Whitegrass cam
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
A.m Valley fog, otherwise a warm sunny day. Mildest day since Nov 17 for many..Some high cloudiness late.
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Dyacon data below
Bittinger 2nw Valley morningBittinger 2nw Valley morningBittinger 2nw Valley morningBittinger 2nw Valley morning “experimental fridge spot”Bittinger 2nw Valley morningBittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morningBittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morningBittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morningUp from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning West of Bittinger morningRock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley evening Bittinger 2nw Valley-Springwater Temps. Basically hold 46.5 to 47.5 year round.
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning Mchenry morning Mchenry morning
A mother bear and 4 cubs living under the deck at the Railey Mountain Vacation office in McHenry was removed today and moved to a abandon bear den on state land.
Top of Wisp
–
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Whitegrass cam
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area Temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
WV High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Clear start. Valleys cold. Tops not as cold. Some wintry mix precip late day south to north in parts of the area
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning “experimental fridge spot”Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Up From Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning Sand Flat Rd afternoon Sand Flat Rd afternoon
Top of Wisp
Afternoon Railey webcamRailey webcam
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7an data mmts bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Spruce Knob
–
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Allegheny Mountains Weather 