December 17, 2023

December 17, 2023

Outlook:

post made 7:00am

Rainfall pushing northward this morning.

Any light moisture reaching along and east of the Eastern Continental divide this morning may briefly begin as frozen precip. How come?

Temps are below freezing at

That includes areas above 4000′

The 3km Nam modeled this well the 3km Nam sucks on precip, but superb on temps, especially with a east flow

A look towards Spruce Knob early morning as clouds roll in from the east

Any below freezing areas will creep above freezing early morning and remain there in to Monday morning. Allowing for only liquid to fall before the changeover to upslope snows across the high ground. Models have held on lighter precip totals across the Alleghenies through the changeover to NW flow upslope. Total rainfall off the modeling

6z GFS below

-6z ECMWF below

So rainfall is not looking all that impressive. A shift west, again would increase those numbers and as always, localized amounts can always beat the models.

Timing the rain and changeover off the 6z GFS below

My thoughts on snowfall tallies below

7Springs 5-8″Somerset 2-5″Mt.Davis 4-7″Bittinger 4-7″Grantsville 3-6″Savage Mt 2-5″Frostburg 1-3″Mchenry 4-7″Cranesville 5-8″Aurora 5-8″Davis 6-10″Canaan Valley 6-10″Spruce Knob 5-8″Elkins 3-6″Snowshoe 6-10″. As always there will be winners and losers.

Modeling output:

6z GFS

6z ECMWF below

NWS OUTLOOKS

watches

Snowfall outlooks

Sterling below

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter

Pittsburgh below

https://www.weather.gov/pbz/winter

Charleston below

https://www.weather.gov/rlx/winter

State College below

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter

Also to note is temps falling through Monday pm, accompanied by gusty winds overnight Monday in to Tuesday. Windchills across the WV high ground either side of 0, and 5-15 elsewhere, with blowing and drifting. Air temps teens Wv high ground, 20s elsewhere.

Review of December 17, 2023

Review of December 17, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 17(Sun)

Cloudy, high ground fog, light rain, drizzle

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

https://viewer.synopticdata.com/graph/now/1500/PMN16,DY008;air_temp

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Heaviest rain east

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Webcams

December 16, 2023

December 16, 2023

Outlook:

Temps this afternoon pleasantly in to the 40s as seen above, but as seen below dewpoints remain low

The dry air, light winds making a nice day on area slopes. The temperature impact is very minimal to the snow base with the low dewpoints and light winds. That changes some tomorrow. As we will see a low coming up the coast that’s seen on the current surface map and radar.

Another upcoming rain to snow scenario. First low strengthening up the coast Sunday in to Monday with wrap around NW flow upslope snows Monday in to Tuesday. Accompanied by strong gusty winds creating blowing and drifting.

A look at the 12zECMWF

Modeling has been back and forth on the western edge rainfall tallies from the first part of the system. The ECMWF(Euro) has been more consistent with the heavier rains staying east of the Alleghenies, and the 12z GFS trended that way on the latest 12z run as well. So, that’s something to watch as we go through tomorrow in to early Monday. Will the heaviest rains end up staying east as modeling suggest.

Below is the 12z ECMWF

Below is the 12z GFS

Below is the 12z Canadian

That’s now some pretty good agreement. So, if it holds, really a non impressive rainfall totals for the Alleghenies on the first part of the event. A shift 50 miles west and rainfall tallies would greatly increase. As it stands modeling is in the .35 to .75 range. Again, something to keep a eye on tomorrow.

As the precip begins Sunday, worth noting it’s not completely out of the question along the Allegheny Front could initially see a brief touch of frozen precip. Low percentage chance. Mainly a cold rain.

As we go in to Monday, temps will slowly backslide through the day. Rain to snow early morning Monday for the WV High ground and that changeover will advance north through the morning.

A look at temps off the 12z ECMWF

Now to snowfall and the main aspect of what anyone cares about. This is a wrap around upslope event so west is best.

Some early thoughts on tallies and the NWS snowfall maps look really good too.

 7Springs 5-8″

Somerset 2-5″

Mt.Davis 4-7″

Bittinger 4-7″

Grantsville 3-6″

Savage Mt 2-5″

Frostburg 1-3″

Mchenry 4-7″

Cranesville 5-8″

Aurora 5-8″

Davis 6-10″

Canaan Valley 6-10″

Spruce Knob 5-8″

Elkins 3-6″

Snowshoe 6-10″

Any streamers or squalls can alter tallies. Going with the general climatological uoslope setup for the type of event, ratios-liquid output to snow.

The Models

12Z ECMWF Below

12Z GFS Below

12z Canadian Below

….again pretty good agreement there in modeling. Some modeling physics do not project the actual heaviest snow over the area it occurs and holds it too far west. A lot of times you’ll see this on local TV predictors that will show Parsons with higher model outputs vs Canaan, etc etc. Thats a model physics flaw 

 Again the NWS in pretty good agreement. Stay tuned for their updates and warnings and advisories as well as we go through the upcoming 36-60 hours.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Check out Sterlings products here for the counties they cover

Through 7am Tuesday, snow should continue beyond 7am

Pittsburghs products for their counties below

https://www.weather.gov/pbz/winter

Charleston products here for their counties

https://www.weather.gov/rlx/winter

State College products here for their counties:

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter

Suspect a uptick west

Review of December 16, 2023

Review of December 16, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 16(Sat)

Cold valley start, sun with thin clouds pm

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley midday
Bittinger 2nw Valley midday
Bittinger 2nw Valley midday
Bittinger 2nw Valley midday

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Nothing locally

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

December 15, 2023

December 15, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 15 (Fri)

Cold start,pleasant sunny day

Bittinger 2nw Valley

-Dyacon data below

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning experimental spot
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Foxtown Rd afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
South end Amish Rd afternoon

Garrett County Airport

Mosser Rd morning
Deep Creek Lake morning

Top of Wisp

  • WISP OPENING DAY

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop BP

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville area

Morning
Midday
Midday

Grantsville area to Savage Mt

Sideling Hill cut seen from Savage Mt

Lavale to Cumberland

Martins Mt

-still few traces of snow , not pictured

Town Hill

December 14, 2023

December 14, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 14(Thurs)

Sunny, chilly but nice day

Bittinger 2nw Valley

West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
West of Bittinger afternoon
Foxtown Rd afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon “Fridge Spot” experimental
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening

Garrett County Airport

Deep Creek Lake morning
State Park Rd afternoon
Deep Creek Lake afternoon
Beckmans Peninsula evening

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts BP

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

December 13, 2023

December 13, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 13(Wed)

Lots of sun, breezy, chilly

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

33 east of Harman at the Divide

December 12, 2023

December 12, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 12(Tues)

Lots of sun sums up the day…

Bittinger 2nw Valley

dyacon data below

South end Amish Rd morning
South end Amish Rd morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning experimental spot
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Foxtown Rd morning
West of Bittinger midday
Bittinger 2nw Valley

The Glades

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland

Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville area

Sideling Hill from Savage Mt

33 east of Harman at the Divide

December 11, 2023

December 11, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 11(Mon)

Snow last night, some lingering this morning, mostly cloudy with a few brief blue breaks in the a.m.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

dyacon data below

Foxtown Rd morning
West of Bittinger morning
Near Bittinger 2nw morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Foxtown Rd afternoon
Near Bittinger 2nw afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Towards Bowman Hill afternoon

Garrett County Airport

Meadow Mt at Deep Creek State Park
Deep Creek Lake morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
Deep Creek Lake morning

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland

Deer Park

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Looking across Allegany County with the Sideling Hill cut visible in the distance

Frostburg

To Lavale /Cumberland

Rocky Gap to Martin’s Mt

Town Hill

Webcam

December 10, 2023

December 10, 2023

Outlooks:

post made at 6:55am 12/10/23

What- Rainy/Mild to Colder/Snowy/Windy

6:51am Radar 12/10/23

Current Advisories;

Winter Storm Warnings out for the high Wv elevations in the pink shade and Winter Weather Advisories out in the purple shade. These likely will expand in to parts of the southern Pa high elevations and some of the Winter Weather Advisories potentially will creep in to Warning criteria.

My thoughts from yesterday really haven’t changed much. A general 4-8″ with localized higher pops across the high Wv elevations 3500’+ and 3-6″ with localized higher pops 2500-3500′. 2000-2500 2-4″ .

A look at the 0z ECMWF for the event

Snowfall off the models

6z ECMWF
6z GFS above
0z Canadian above
Short Range Canadian RDPS above. The Canadian RGEM is better than the horrid US Nam for precip.
NWS WFO outlook above

This is mainly a Sunday PM to Monday AM event. Expect road conditions across the high ground to deteriorate rapidly. If you have traveling across the high ground to do and you can work it in this morning to afternoon hours, that’s best.

The morning temps starting off in the 40s and lows 50s

and by evening those are crashing back to and below freezing. Modeled 7pm temps

modeled midnight

modeled 6am Monday

Temps won’t move a lot Monday as some upslope snows continue in the morning hours across the high ground. This will be accompanied by strong winds blowing the snow around. Initially a wet snow that will transition to a bit more powder as time goes on overnight.

Yesterday I referred to a similar rain to snow setup on Dec 7, 2011 that ended with these type of amounts. Similar numbers could be expected with this. Refer to yesterday’s post by clicking back a day at the bottom of the post

Nws advisories and snowfall maps can be viewed in the drop down menu under snowfall info per Weather Forecast Office.

Review of December 10, 2023

Review of December 10, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 10(Sun)

Rainy, cloudy, high ground fog, drizzle, changing to snow late day, early evening

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening around changeover to snow(obviously not visible In pic)

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

(Daybreak being the 11th)

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cumberland

Lavale

High Germany Rd

December 9, 2023

December 9, 2023

Outlooks:

The what: Mild and nice today a shower cant be ruled out mainly across the southern Alleghenies to mild and rainy tonight and Sunday a.m, few rumbles of thunder possible Sunday a.m and then turning colder, windy, rain to snow through the pm hours, first high Wv mts and expanding. Initially wet snow transitioning to some upslope snow overnight Sunday that will be blowing around Monday.

Uncertainties: How rapid the changeover. How much moisture is left along the western edge of the precip shield and speed of the the moisture exit. Another uncertainty and perhaps the biggest will be how this performs east of the mts with incoming colder air.

The models:

First up the 6z ECMWF

Precip type and time off the 6z ECMWF

Total precip off the 6z ECMWF below

6z ECMWF Total Precip

Snowfall off the 6z ECMWF

6z ECMWF snowfall

On to the 6z GFS below

6z GFS Precip Type and timing

Total precip off the 6z GFS below

6z Total Precip

Snowfall off the 6z GFS below

6z GFS snowfall

Temps off the 6z Euro

Modeling has been increasing one run, decreasing the next and back. A few extra of snow on missed hours, a bit less moisture or a bit more will obviously alter the final tallies.

Currently from changeover Sunday through Monday midday when this should be wrapped up

Garrett, Preston, Somerset, Fayette, Westmoreland, Cambria this is looking like a 3-6″ type event. For Tucker, Grant, Randolph, Pendleton, Pocahontas high ground this looks like a 4-8″+ event.

Snowfall off other modeling

0z Canadian
0z RDPS(short range Canadian)

Then the wild card areas as you work across the high ground east of the Alleghenies. Potentially some surprises there.

Its been a while since we have had a decent rain to snow system that wasn’t strictly NW flow upslope. This event has a lot of likenesses to the “Moyer” event of 12/7/11

below is that day

12/7/11

Below is forecasted surface map for Sunday

below is the precip with that(very similar)

Snowfall with that event below

If numbers end up coming out something like that Monday morning would be about what is expected. But no 2 are exactly alike and let’s see where modeling goes today. If anything drastically changes a new post will be made here.

Stay tuned to your local NWS for updates, advisories.

NWS Snowfall info is included here per WFO in the drop down menu under Snowfall info

Review of December 9, 2023

Review of December 9, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 9(Sat)

Cold valley start, sun clouds mix

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley evening

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

McConnellsburg 

December 8, 2023

December 8, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 8(Fri)

Some clouds early, then mostly sunny

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Foxtown Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd morning
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon

Garrett County Airport

Rock Lodge Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
Deep Creek Lake morning

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts BP

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland area

Kings Run Rd.
219

To Cranesville

Grantsville area

Lavale to Cumberland

Polish Mt

Town Hill