November 8, 2023

OUTLOOK:

Few scattered showers Thursday, rainfall amounts +/- a tenth

Then we watch for the next wave to meet up with just cold enough air for some potential Wv high elevation wet snow. Accumulations mainly above 3000′ as it appears, with some snow falling below that.

Mid morning to early afternoon Friday precip pushes in with temps likely at or above freezing even up to Spruce Knob. Temps will cool throughout the column as it pushes through allowing for what modeling agrees on this morning as a 1-3″ wet snowfall Friday afternoon across the Wv high ground. The main focus appears as of the time of this posting from Canaan to Snowshoe.

Marginal temps, a lack of wind should accompany the brief punch of snow that’s in and out in a 4-6 hour window.

A look at the models for midday Friday

Starting with the 6z ECMWF (Euro)

Now on to the 6z GFS

On the the 0z Canadian

Short range modeling basically in the same general camp. Again tweaks possible and even likely. Timing, and where that precip wave sets up not etched in stone. Not a major event, but a blip of winter potentially here in the early season. This unfortunately does not really create much of a snow making window upcoming, although some nights should allow for it if some areas choose.

Review of November 8, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 8(Wed)

Chilly start. Mild day. Cooler along the eastern Alleghenies vs Western Alleghenies

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Cumberland

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

November 7, 2023

OUTLOOK:

post made 7:40am 11/7/23

A quick a.m update on the possible sneaky snow threat Friday. Yesterday the GFS was on it 3 out of 4 runs. Other modeling not so much. The ECMWF (Euro) and Canadian are now on board with just enough cold air catching the northern edge of the precip wave pushing through. It’s still a bit early, as precip track,timing, and cold air push still has to work out as modeled. 72+ hours out, those details can change.

A quick look at the 6z Euro precip type output for Friday.

Also a look at the 6zGFS precip type outlook Friday

Snowfall output off the ECMWF and GFS at 6z for Friday’s brief quick potential wet snow event.

Toss in the Canadian for good measure

Models in line with one another at the present time. That doesn’t mean it holds, a shift north, south with the precip, colder air slower to work in etc can yet alter the outlook. Will post afternoon model runs later today here as well.

As of now the Wv high ground above 3000-3500′ looks like the best likelihood for accumulation if this occurs.

9:30pm model update

Quick look at afternoon and evening runs. Basically GFS veered away, Euro, Canadian held slight high Wv brief snow threat Friday

Review of November 7, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 7(Tues)

Cloudy a.m, then clouds and sun, windy last night through today.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void regionally

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Grantsville area to Savage Mt

Lavale to Cumberland

Town Hill

November 6, 2023

Outlooks:

post made 7:30pm 11/6/23

Nothing real exciting this week to watch. Overnight tonight the SW winds should be on the increase, that will scour out any early temp falls that have occurred in the Valley areas. Northern Canaan Valley station below freezing currently. That should pop rapidly when the winds kick in. Cloud cover and the slight shower threat in to Tuesday.

Modeled precip amounts tomorrow

Wednesday the Eastern Alleghenies will hold just a touch cooler the western Alleghenies. A light SE flow with a warm front pushing in West. A bit a of wedge setup. Nothing overly impressive, but enough if you’re traveling Mo-Town to Cumberland, or even Elkins to Keyser, you’ll notice the car thermometer notch down a few east or vice versa westbound.

Wednesday afternoon

Showers a bit more widespread on Thursday.

This is where modeling begins to vary. The GFS tries to allow cold enough air for the potential for a wave to push up Friday and catch that for the slight risk of a touch of wet snow Friday. Currently I wouldn’t buy that but it’s worth watching. The modeled 850 temps, essentially the Wv high ground are not very supportive of snow. That will Flux. So its worth watching. The second issue is will the precip push far enough north. So two very borderline ingredients that really have to come together for an unimpressive event. The Euro and most other modeling says natta

Review of November 6, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 6(Mon)

Clear cold valley start. Some intervals of clouds and sun through the afternoon

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void regionally

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cumberland

Frostburg

Grantsville

November 5, 2023

Outlooks-

A very tranquil November week upcoming. Overnight tonight, under clear skies, calm to light winds, coldest valleys well in to the 20s, high ground low to mid 30s, back to the 50s tomorrow under sunny skies. Cloud cover plus winds hold under Monday night preventing a temp drop, as temps will remain mild for early November with a warm front lifting through with a few isolated showers Tuesday. A Northerly push will attempt to lower dewpoints with chillier air near and north of the Mason Dixon Wednesday and lift back out Thursday with moisture and mild temps to end the week with showers Thursday and more rain Friday.

Review of November 5, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 5(Sun)

Sunny day, pleasant temps for early November.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting.

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void of precip regionally

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

November 4, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 4(Sat)

A.m clouds, then turning sunny

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Coop with “M” =missing data so far on the 4th of Nov

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

November 3, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 3(Fri)

Tons of sun, milder after a cold start, a very dry air mass in place.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void locally

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Grantsville area to Savage Mt

Lavale to Cumberland

By Rocky Gap

Town Hill

November 2, 2023

Forest Service Cam 6/24/21

Nov 2(Thurs)

Very cold a.m start, especially the Valleys. Lots of sun today. Snowshoe made snow all day for the 2nd straight day. Timberline and Canaan also made overnight.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

The Glades

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

National Min Temp Today

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

THROWBACK TO THE DATE IN 2014

down to Cass

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting……again

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

To Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

To Oakland

November 1, 2023

OUTLOOK:

post made 7:00pm 11/1/23

After a general 1-3″ snowfall across the area, skies are clearing. Winds are still going but weakening and should go calm overnight as the High Pressure slides overhead. The ingredients are coming together for a good Valley temp drop overnight

1-Dry air mass. Modeled dewpoints around 10-12 and modeling typically won’t catch the microclimate scale.

2- skies clearing

3- Winds dying as the high moves over

Coldest valley temps could plummet in ti the single digits if everything indeed comes together. From here we begin a moderating trend. We also hold on to the very dry air mass. The ski resorts that did make snow, those low dewpoints will aid in holding power despite well above freezing temps. Often there is much much too big of a emphasis on melt based solely on temps. 50°, and low dewpoints and calm conditions lead to mininal melt of man made snow. Crank up the dewpoints, add some wind, then the melt is off to the races.

Latest temp trend off the 12z GFS for Garrett County Airport

Those 5-7 plus day out temps can greatly fluctuate run to run, especially in the transition seasons.

REVIEW OF NOVEMBER 1, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 1(Wed)

Snow showers, tapering after mid morning but continuing in a spotty light fashion in to the evening. Ending south to north with clearing skies.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

The Glades

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=11&day=1&hour=20&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland

To Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Accident

evening

Webcams

Throwback on the date to 2014

CASS/BALD KNOB – SNOWSHOE

Snowshoe

October 31, 2023

OUTLOOK:

The colder air is now entrenched in the area, but some diurnal daytime “heating” will occur with a mix of clouds and sun. Some areas picking up a touch of snow last night as enough moisture lingered to allow the incoming cold air to catch the tail end before exiting the area.

The next round which should be a bit more widespread in area and elevation pushes in tonight. The outlook remains for a 1-3″ type event with the leanings to the low and mid range of that total. Not a big deal, but the first widespread and potentially areas with slick travel will occur Wednesday a.m.

Modeled snowfall amounts below:

The cold temps will be a bigger factor Wednesday morning vs this morning. 1- it will be colder. Temps upper teens Wv high ground above 4000′, with winds gusting 25-35mph. 2500-4000′ Temps ranging from the 20-26 as you work down in elevation.

Afternoon temps holding at and below freezing above 3500′ -3700′. Above 4000-4200′ temps should hold 20s.

Skies begin clearing Wednesday PM. Winds begin slackening off WednesdayPM. How rapidly they slack off will determine how quick those valleys plummet Wednesday night. With modeled dewpoints looking like

That at least gives the chance those coldest valleys could potentially see some single digits. Teens and 20s elsewhere.

Then we see a moderating trend late week into early next week before the next cold shot pushes in.

For NWS office snowfall forecast click on the drop down menu option on the top left of the page and click “SNOWFALL INFO”.

REVIEW OF OCTOBER 31, 2023 ALONG WITH THE MONTHLY REVIEW

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 31(Tues)

Colder day, a cold start, and the day began with some areas coated in snow. Especially the Canaan area. Sun, clouds through the day.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

The Glades

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski Area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting and hasn’t for the month

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Monthly

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=10&day=31&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Northcraft

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland

Lavale to Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

33 East of Harman at the divide

OCTOBER 2023

Temps

AVG MEAN ANOMALY

AVG MAX ANOMALY

AVG MIN ANOMALY

Precip

OBSERVED

DEPARTURE

October 30, 2023

OUTLOOK:

4:25pm 10/30/23

Colder air currently pushing in. The high ground is edging in to the upper 30s and will continue in to the 20s by Tuesday morning. Enough moisture should linger in to the early overnight for some light frozen precip of little consequence.

After a tranquil but chilly Tuesday, we await what will be the first snow for many overnight Tuesday in to Wednesday morning. This still looks on track for a 1-3″ type event above 2000-2500′ on the upslope side of the Alleghenies and leaning low to mid range on the totals. Model output below

Snowfall should taper off early to midday Wednesday with clearing skies and dying winds as we go through the day. Temps starting off the day upper teens to around 20 above 4000′, with windchills 0-10°, and temps in the 20s 2500-4000′ with windchills upper single digits to teens. So some real deal cold Wednesday morning

Winds gusting early 25-35mph across the high ground. That accompanied with temps should lead to proper preparation of outdoor water lines and other cold weather preparations.

Temps remaining below freezing for the high ground through the day Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon temps

With the skies clearing and winds dying Wednesday PM that should set up the opportunity for the coldest valleys to possibly dip upper single digits to low teens.

A moderating temp trend in to the weekend and models in agreement on another digging trough and potential snow activity as we go in to next week and beyond

REVIEW OF OCTOBER 30, 2023

REVIEW OF OCTOBER 30, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 30(Mon)

Cloudy, showers

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=10&day=30&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=110&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland

Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville