Sandy ~ The Snowy Side

Sandy ~ The Snowy Side October 29/30 2012

From Hurricane Sandy, to tropical Cyclone to ExtraTropical Cyclone that produced one of the most memorable and without any question, one of the most destructive winter storm events in the area. Over a decade later, the signs of the tree damage of the event remains very evident in places.

Leading up to the event. Modeling, had its run to run variations. The ECMWF was most consistent with the storm, showing a significant impacting winter event from a week out. The ECMWF was modeling a event that seemed a bit far fetched. Consistently showing 2-4+ feet across the Alleghenies on each run of the model, occasionally higher at times on various runs.

So let’s set this up first by looking at the models from nearly a week out.

Leading to the event….

From October 22. Again, remember this far out, fine details weren’t important. The storm potential was. Exact location, elevation, amounts you wouldn’t expect to be spot on and you would expect variations.

As the days went by. On the 25th the Euro was honing in very well.

The GFS starting to come around to a similiar solution to the euro on the 27th

The Nam within range and on board

The 28th

On the 28th, I put out thoughts on the event.

The Weather Service remained very weak on the idea of how significant the snowfall would be. Especially for most of Garrett, Preston County.

Within 36 hours of the event start this was the outlook

Still within 36 hours , next update mentioning in excess of 6″ That would not be a big deal or even a rare October occurrence like models have shown for a week.

within 18-24 hours start time. Up to 8″ across the highest elevations. That’s a decent late October event, but not a memorable one that occured

That Sunday night, Blizzard warnings were issued for Monday pm. Numbers though were still well below modeled

By early Monday morning, the forecast upped just a bit in areas. Still low vs every model. Keep in mind, areas north of Oakland ended up 2-3 feet in spots(Bittinger to Cranesville, even Mt.Davis) Modeling did well with it and was showing this for days.

By mid morning Monday. At this time, for Wv, the snow event was in progress. Rain was still occuring north, but only hours from changeover to snow. The forecast still low. Now a more respectable 10-16 that you begin to expect significant impacts.

By the time changeover occured to the Mason Dixon line, the forecast was upped again. They also removed the 2500′ south of Oakland part. This was becoming more in line. ( it was driving me nuts seeing the prior forecast)

with the event now in full swing, the next update was upped once again and nearly to what modeling had had for a week. Still not quite to the extreme that occured.

After midnight Monday, as a large brunt of snow has already occured. The forecast is upped yet again and went 2 feet plus in areas. At this point that was a given.

Warnings

Forecast track by the NHC

Final track path

Surface Map

Satellite Loop

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Radar Loop

Temperatures

Wv High Ground temps with the temps a bit cooler, exposed to strong winds saw less tree damage vs areas a bit lower and more protected with temps hovering that 31-33 range as it snowed

Modeled Amounts That Occured

Recalling the event:

On October 29,2012 rain changed to snow late afternoon in Northern Garrett County. Earlier across the WV high ground and working it’s way to the Mason Dixon line by later in the afternoon.

Late afternoon west of Bittinger at 2700′

Rain to snow, rapidly accumulating from this point on.
I was remaining in cell signal to watch radar and keep updated, seeing flashes from transformers blowing, as I began to drive off many hours later, not realizing how deep the snow was, but also amazed at how compact it was and driving on top of the fresh snow and drift areas barely breaking in.

Through the night, the sound of trees breaking was a constant. By morning, the beauty of the snow offset by the amount of tree damage. Excuse the poor picture quality in the following images. All cell pics from back before cell phones took decent pics.