Oct 11.                       min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       47.7       66.7      57.2

Garrett College        47.8       67.3     57.5

Can-Heights             46.0        65.4    55.7

CRN-Canaan           44.1        66.3     55.2

Cabin Mt.                43.0        63.1     53.0

Cabin Mt north      43.5       64.0      53.7

Spruce Knob.         x

Snowshoe                40.8       63.5     52.2

Can-Valley Floor    48.2       67.1     57.6

7Springs                  45.3       65.5     55.4

Cloudy, some fog and rains, some heavy.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm … Event rainfall total at Bittinger 2nw Valley 1.7″

 

Some other stations event totals

 

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

On the models….

Colder air pushing in. Here at 10:30pm, temps down to 37° at Mt. Mitchell, 46° Bald Knob at Canaan, 51° at Mt. Washington in N.H.

Temps falling overnight. Many high ground locations seeing their Friday max at midnight tonight. High ground from Spruce Knob and especially the Roaring Plains, Sods area will hold 30s tomorrow. Likely 35-39, elsewhere 40-45°. Windchills starting out 18-24° Wv high ground above 3800′, 25-34°elsewhere in the Mts.  Some very early morning rime possible above 4000′ before breaks of sun occur….Friday night into Saturday, precip pushes back in. This looks to have some flakes above 2600′, and possible coatings above 3700′. Especially the northern Alleghenies where there currently looks to be a touch more precip. Saturday holds 30s above 3700′, and 40-45° elsewhere. Windchills again start 18-24° across those high spots. 25-35 elsewhere. Similar temps into Sunday.

0z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

0z 3km Nam Windchills

0z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Hurricane Michael

Aftermath

Oct 10.                    min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley      61.3        74.0       67.6

Garrett College        62.3      76.2        69.2

Can-Heights             59.2      70.3        64.8

CRN-Canaan            61.4      69.8        65.6

Cabin Mt                  57.9      67.1        62.5

Cabin Mt north       58.6      68.2       63.4

Spruce Knob.            x

Snowshoe               57.6        62.8       60.2

Can-Valley Floor   61.9        72.3       67.1

7Springs                 61.1        72.7       66.9

Clouds at daybreak breaking for a partly cloudy day into early afternoon before cloud cover built and showers lifted north later. Cloud cover and showers occured earlier in the day as you went south in the Alleghenies.

Temp profile this afternoon,

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow,

 

On the models….

Showers tonight, through Thursday as the on and off fashion. Colder air pushing late Thursday, through the night. Some Wv high ground may hold 30s on Friday. Highs at midnight Friday and falling. Windchills in the teens across the Wv high ground. Gusty winds. A little rime possible early, and if there is any moisture left , few flakes could be possible as the air aloft(850 temps) which is basically the Wv high spots, run below freezing. Then again Saturday morning. Air looks to be a touch more saturated Saturday a.m, so the column may not be cold enough to the surface to get snow, despite the GFS does show it. More likely above 4k feet Saturday.

Further out, a few flake threats and maybe a little light accumulation threat above 3000′ exist next week. Details sketchy.

Short term, 18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

18z 3km Nam 850 temps

Windchills Friday morning, and really the entire day features cold windchills. Wv high ground looks likely to have windchill values in the teend. Yes teens Friday am. Get ready to watch some of the high elevation stations. 

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

Saturday a.m up close

18z GFS 2m temperatures

18z GFS snowfall next 10 days

18z GFS total precip next 10

12z ECMWF Saturday a.m. Air aloft marginal, leaning to more liquid, but flakes can’t be ruled out.

 

Hurricane Michael

Michael became a strong cat 4 and sub 920mb storm.

https://youtu.be/HQYxVHIOH-A

Fall “fool”iage…..

This fall has turned into a extremely poor foliage season. Heavy leaf drop,,minimal color. Its basically bare to dull maples, cherry, with green oaks with brown spotted leaves…mixed with a few other trees with minimal color Few pics

 

 

Oct 9                     min.       max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley    56.7      73.8       65.2

Garrett College    63.4      75.8      69.6

Can-Heights         60.8       71.2     66.0

CRN-Canaan        57.2       73.5     65.4

Cabin Mt.              58.8      68.2     63.5

Cabin Mt north   59.2      69.1      64.1

Spruce Knob        x

Snowshoe            57.9       65.3     61.6

Can-Valley Floor  59.7      74.8    67.2

7Springs                61.5      73.2     67.3

Partly cloudy day. Mild.

Temp profile this afternoon,

 

Radar estimates. Dry in the region

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow,

 

Hurricane Michael

On the models..

Cold push begins Thursday, rain, wind with the front, setting up a chilly to cold Friday-Saturday. Then we rebound ahead of the next cold push Tuesday-Wednesday. That one potentially brings the 1st flakes of the season, if not another a few days later may.  Widespread frost and feeezes day 6-15.

18z GFS precip type next 240hrs

18z GFS 2m temperatures

12Z ECMWF ensemble members for snowfall next 15 days. Some members seeing some accumulation. This time of year, you’ll hear. The ground is too warm too stick. One of the sayings I hate the most. Typically early fall, or in the spring, any system that can produce snow in a high temp gradient pattern brings along with it, strong winds, and with 850s -2 to -5c , the WV high ground falls 28-32. The top duff layer, leaf layer, grass, is all that has to chill off, snow can stick. Once you surpass 1-2″, thats when the warm ground plays a factor as the duff layer is insulated and the warm within the ground plays a factor and melts from underneath.

Anyhoo, the 12z ECMWF ensemble members next 15. Enough members with a threat that the upcoming systems beyond day 6 are worth watching,

 

Da Leaves

Bittinger area… bare or dull maples, green oaks is the theme.

 

Pic by Renee Morris at Canaan Valley

social media pic by Tucker County page along the Blackwater above the falls

pic by Rosanna Springston along the Highland Scenic Highway

Few pics by Tina Hendershot. One from Spruce Knob, looking mostly all bare west, and one from Blackwater Canyon at Lindy.. The canyon is running behind schedule, but also it appears less affected by anthracnose, at least partially due to tree type… Still have high hopes over the next week, especially after the cold shot arrives, that the canyon will go vibrant yellow and provide the best foliage in a otherwise dull foliage season. Here are her pics,

 

Oct 8.                       min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley        53.6      75.7      64.6

Garrett College        56.7       79.1     67.9

Can-Heights             60.3       75.4     67.8

CRN-Canaan            58.9        76.8     67.9

Cabin Mt                  60.8         70.7     65.7

Cabin Mt north      61.7         72.7     67.2

Spruce Knob.         x

Snowshoe               60.1         70.5       65.3

Can-Valley Floor    51.3         77.7      64.5

7Springs                  64.8         75.9      70.4

Mix of clouds and sun, few cloudy periods. More sun this afternoon.

Temp profile this afternoon,

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow,

 

Comparisons

Pic today by Charles Cropp 2018 vs 2017. This is a theme widespread in many areas in the region. Maples are some of our best colors, this year these have been dull and a high percentage fell prematurely. I see lots of chatter, the high ground has not changed color yet, still green, its coming…. lots of these areas are in large part maples and bare. Spruce knob and west- mostly bare, across the sods, mostly bare Allegheny front and west aside Red Creek canyon. Here in Garrett County near Bittinger, maple areas dull to bare. Oaks are still green which is typical. They aren’t vibrant to start with. A very poor season. High hopes remain for birch areas(Blackwater Canyon, Swallow Falls)

Oct 7.                        min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       55.7       78.4      67.0

Garrett College       61.1       81.4     71.2

Can-Heights            61.7       76.5     69.1

CRN-Canaan           60.2       78.2     69.2

Cabin Mt                 61.5       76.8     69.1

Cabin Mt north      62.4       77.4    69.9

Spruce Knob          x

Snowshoe              62.8        73.0      67.8

Can-Valley Floor   51.3       79.5      65.4

7Springs                 65.9       76.5      71.2

Lots of sun, some clouds. Evening storms east of the Allegheny Front

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models….

Mentioned the other day, the MJO is controlling this pattern and if we can break out of phase 1 the cold will come. Most modeling now does just that. Takes the MJO into phase 2 before going into the null zone. Phase 2 is cold in the east. This is the ECMWF mjo forecast, the GFS is almost identical. 

18z GFS 2m temperatures

18z GFS precip type next 240hrs. (notice some blue on there/aka snow) Also watch the tropical remnants prior to the cold push. Some heavy rains may be associated with that. Right now it does not look major or extreme, but potentially some minor flooding.

Comparisons

Blackwater Canyon. This is probably the greatest contrast vs last year. As the high spots have had some color and leaf loss. Due to a different reason than last year, but the overall appearance is similar. Not the case in the canyon and a big thanks to Charles Cropp for this pic today. 2018 vs 2017. I took last years pic on the 8th.

Few other pics today in Garrett County near Bittinger. Lots of bare maples. I keep reading people saying “trees all still have their leaves, mostly green yet” and I’m baffled. Maples in this area, lots are bare or dull. Oak area, yes, mostly green… Across the Sods, up higg, almost all bare. Spruce Knob and west, mostly bare and tropical remnants late week will knock down lots of remaining leaves in that region. Canaans birches, Blackwater Canyon birches, week 2-3 looks prime for those, are some good hopes for bright colors. Here are a few today and one more from Charles Cropp at Little Canaan(labeled)

Oct 6.                       min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley      55.7         77.7       66.7

Garrett College      57.9        81.3       69.6

Can-Heights           57.8        76.5       67.1

CRN-Canaan          59.2        78.6       68.9

Cabin Mt                59.2        75.2       67.2

Cabin Mt north     60.3       77.2       68.7

Spruce Knob           x

Showshoe              61.3        72.1      66.7

Can-Valley Floor   49.5       79.2      64.3

7Springs                 63.0       75.2      69.1

Times of clouds and sun. Mild day. showers mainly north.

Temp profile this afternoon,

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Da leafs

Really a subpar year. Yes, there is some color. But vs last year, drastically less. More comparison pics. This time from Bittinger 2nw Valley 2018 vs 2017(only 1 day difference, the 7th last year, 6th this year)

 

Another

 

and one more

 

Anthracnose- early foliage loss a huge factor this year..While this September was warmer than last year, some areas have less foliage to date due to the fungal disease from the wet weather.

 

Oct 5.                     min.       max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley    56.2        68.4        62.8

Garrett College    58.7        69.9       64.3

Can-Heights         59.2        69.9       64.6

CRN-Canaan         60.6        72.0      66.3

Cabin Mt               58.3        69.6      63.9

Cabin Mt north    59.2       69.6      64.4

Spruce Knob         x

Snowshoe             58.8        68.4      63.6

Can-Valley Floor  51.3       73.2      62.2

7Springs                55.0        65.6     60.3

Cloudy, some fog in the morning. Then mainly cloudy afternoon. Some areas saw more breaks of sun than others. Limited at Bittinger 2nw area…

Temp profile this afternoon

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm.. Picked up .7 at Bittinger 2nw Valley with the rain last evening after

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

I made a Facebook post this morning about the MJO driving the pattern. The phase 8 and 1 correlations are as strong as it gets. We’ve been in a fairly high amplitude phase 8, a phase 8 for late Sept into early Oct should look like this

Our past 10 days looks like this

I don’t know about you, but that looks to me about as close as it gets. We are now into phase 1. A phase 1 looks like

Gfs next week looks like this

MJO is a main driver of the current pattern. Where do we go from here? Some modeling advances the MJO into phase 2. That would allow the eastern U.S to turn cold. Some have it going into the null phase, less impactful and that would allow some cold air to sweep east in 7-10 days. A few hold phase 1. This would hold the current pattern longer into the month.  This is a big factor of what occurs as we go into mid month.

 

Oct 4.                    min.     max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley   53.6       74.0     63.8

Garrett College   58.6       72.6     65.6

Can-Heights        59.1       71.4     65.2

CRN-Canaan       59.4        71.7    65.6

Cabin Mt.            59.2        67.3     63.2

Cabin Mt north  59.2       70.0      64.6

Spruce Knob.     x

Snowshoe            59.2       67.3      63.2

Can-Valley Floor 48.4       74.1     61.2

7Springs               57.5       67.7     62.6

Cloudy, few periods with sun. Few widely scattered showers, sprinkles today.  Heavier line late evening 7:30-8:30pm..

Temp profile this afternoon

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Oct 3.                     min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley   55.1       73.3     64.2

Garrett College    62.3       74.8      68.5

Can-Heights         59.1        70.3     64.7

CRN-Canaan        58.4        72.6     65.5

Cabin Mt              59.0        68.5     63.7

Cabin Mt north   59.7       69.3     64.5

Spruce Knob x

Snowshoe            59.4       68.4      63.9

Can-Valley Floor  50.0     72.5      61.2

7Springs               59.7       69.6     64.7

Rain last night, cloudy a.m with sun breaking through as the morning went by.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm… Picked up .30 at Bittinger 2nw Valley since last evening.

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow…

On the models……

Ridge east, trough west theme continues. Still correlates nicely with the phase 1 MJO that has held in place. Modeling trying to bring it into phase 2 mid month. If so, cold likely is able to push finally. Wait and see. Short term-

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Pics today

Oct 2.                        min.      max.        avg

Bitt 2nw valley        49.8        72.4       61.1

Garrett College        53.8        73.0       63.2

Can-Heights.            56.5         69.9       64.2

CRN-Canaan            57.7         69.6       65.5

Cabin Mt                  58.1         64.6       61.3

Cabin Mt north       58.5         68.2      63.3

Spruce Knob.  x

Snowshoe                58.8          63.7     61.2

Can-Valley Floor    45.0          70.2     57.6

7Springs                  62.5           68.4   65.4

Partly cloudy start to quickly building random storms after daybreak. The low eastern sun, incoming storm, big puffy white and dark clouds gave a weird hue to the morning sky, with even a rainbow forming in the western sky. Morning showers, then mainly cloudy with a few peaks o sun. Late evening storm that put out a lot of severe watches, including tornado.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm..picked up .05 at Bittinger 2nw Valley through 6pm, that was with the morning showers

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics today

Late day severe weather…

 

7 years ago today

1st snow of the season across the Wv high ground.  4-10″ fell across the Wv mts above 3500 with a few inches down to 3000′.  Temps marginal in that lower elevation range. I spent the night of Oct 1, morning of Oct 2nd on Spruce Knob. By morning several inches of snow had accumulated. Going down the east side, snow accumulation on the ground quickly tapered off, but the trees seemed to hold more. Enough so, there were some trees down.  Once below 3800′ things were mainly bare. At Canaan the valleys were bare, but light accumulations above 3500′. Through that day, snow levels lowered and picked back up. Temps failed to climb above freezing across some of the high ground the 2nd and 3rd.

Spruce Knob after round 1 of 2 (all these pics Oct 2, 2011)

Seneca Rocks, all clear down low

Canaan Heights after round 1 of 2