September 14, 2024 8:22 A.M
The month of September is almost halfway in to the books, with very little precipitation month to date over much of the Alleghenies. The month has been dominated by high pressure with blue skies, and dry air. A very comfortable and at times very cool first half of September. The coolest front half of September since 2017.
Rainfall Month To Date Below
Many areas seeing under a tenth of a inch over the first 2 weeks. On September 1st, there was that ending swath that continued after the late August rains that crossed parts of WV. Spruce Knob actually picked up 1.41″ on September 1st. After that, that’s been basically it, outside of the brief line ahead of the frontal passage last weekend.
September Precip Departures below
For most, the departure is nearly equal to what the average precip month to date would be. That said, and it’s not stressed enough. Averages are a culmination of extremes in many instances.
This on the heels of what was a average August, just a bit above, and a bit below across the Alleghenies, with significantly more rainfall east, and much less west.
August Precip Accumulation Below
August Precip Departures Below
In August some areas east ran +5-8″ above average with over a foot of rainfall on the month. That was a huge turn around for areas east. The Drought Monitor never reflected that enough in areas east.
The experimental short term drought indicator shows that a bit better
The USDM(US Drought Monitor ) As Of September 10, 2024
MARYLAND
Drought Conditions Since 2020, indicating the driest conditions since the period began.
Reconstruction Long Term since 1895 puts in to perspective some of the significant drought periods of prior years. In the grand scheme, drought is not increasing. We’ve seen less extremes in terms of drought. Often when we have an extreme event, the mindset is always, this is the worst ever. The media is partially to blame for that mindset.
WEST VIRGINIA
Drought Conditions Across The State Since 2020(through September 10)
Reconstruction Long Term Drought Since 1895
PENNSYLVANIA
VIRGINIA
Dry summer, but not an extremely dry year to date. Summer is the the time that drought can most rapidly advance. Long days, higher heat, higher evapotranspiration. A rapid drought developed and has continued. At times some temporary relaxation, and in the last 2 weeks, even with cooler temps, shorter days, a bit of a worsening in conditions.
Stream conditions are extremely low across the area. The August rains in the Alleghenies only caused brief stream rises as much of that rain soaked in and in the instances of the downpours, ran off.
one example of many-Blackwater at Davis. 5.80 is not the lowest flow for the date.
Year to date precip numbers for 2024 in many instances are near or ahead of 2023.
- Bittinger 2NW Valley Year to Date
Jan 1 to Sept 14:
2024 39.34
2023 37.12
- Canaan Heights
Jan 1 to Sept 14
2024 41.11
2023 38.91
The summer time is where departures and drought onset kicked in
June through August
GARRETT COUNTY
- Ranked as the 11th driest in 130 years
Year to date- ranked as the 40th wettest.
summer precip trends.
West Virginia- as a whole ranked 5th driest in 130 years
For the year(through August) that drops significantly to the 37th driest
Tucker County summer precip trend. Even with the last few dry summers, the overall decade trend is slightly up
- In summary, a very dry summer, with rapid drought onset and continuation. With moments of relaxation. A significant reprieve to areas east in August. Since September 1, dryness has worsened area wide.
So, any hopes?
A Iow pressure developing off the Carolina Coast needs watching for Tuesday-Friday time period with the main period of watch Tuesday P.M to Wednesday P.M.
This is a very difficult feature for modeling to nail down. Over the coming couple of days models will have run to run variations. Regardless of where it goes. Some areas will miss out.
Lets look at the models
0z ECMWF (Euro)
Through next Friday the 0z Euro Precip
0z GFS
Through next Friday 0z GFS precip
Now there is some agreement there. How about the Canadian
3 for 3
But look at the Euro Ensemble members
Lots of hits, but also lots of misses, stressing the uncertainty. There is potential, by no means a lock to see much needed rainfall. By no means a drought buster, but we can recover more rapidly from drought as we move deeper in to the season.
The GFS ensemble members
Temperatures next 10 days off modeling. The WPC in general has a high probability of above normal temps. However, with a continued east flow, at times potential moisture , our daytime maxes should be held in check, with a much less night time temp drop. Clouds, moisture = stable temps. Not a lot of night time/daytime diurnal variation
10 day anomaly off the Euro;
10 day anomaly off the GFS
Again that’s a likelihood of more of a daytime departure below average than overnights. Which is the opposite of the first half of the month.
Through September 12th.
The coldest average minimum temperature station in the eastern U.S
- Canaan Valley Refuge 32.7°
- The Glades 35.5(unofficial)
- Mt Washington 36.5
Let’s look at the coolest September start since 2017
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Back in 2017, the second half of the month got much milder, but not before allowing a early color start
This season, the combination of drought, cool September start is allowing colors to begin early. Some dullness, early drop in areas likely, but it does not necessarily mean a mute uncolorful season.
Some pics from this week
Piney Resovoir 9/13
Grantsville 9/13
The Glades 9/13
West of Bittinger 9/10
Bald Knob 9/9
Canaan Mt 9/9
Cranesville Swamp 9/10
over the coming week the swamp colors should really come in
9/12
- From the Garrett County Forestry Board via Facebook
Over the coming 10-14 days expect more rapid color transition. Some dull, some vibrant. A bit earlier than normal after years of being a bit later than normal. Instead of 7-10 days late, we may run 7-10 days early in what is peak color and that peak color, as always but maybe more so this year will have more variances location to location based on soil conditions, dominant tree species with drought stress.
Allegheny Mountains Weather 