January 14, 2020

Jan 14(Tues)

Cloudy, foggy, drizzly, rainy..

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[29.6]—MAX[51.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[40.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[40.2]—PRECIP[T]7am

Snowfall season to date 27.1″

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Garrett College

MIN[31.9]—MAX[51.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[41.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.5]—PRECIP[.17]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[39.0]—MAX[51.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[45.0]—PRECIP[.13]7am

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[35.0]—MAX[51.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[43.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[44.0]—PRECIP[.23]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[36.7]—MAX[49.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[43.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[44.5]—PRECIP[.32]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[37.6]—MAX[49.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[43.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[44.5]—PRECIP[.26]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[34.2]—MAX[47.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[41.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.8]—PRECIP[.21]

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Snowshoe

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[27.1]—MAX[53.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[40.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[41.7]

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7Springs

MIN[36.3]—MAX[48.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[42.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[40.8]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[33.6]—MAX[43.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[38.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[37.7]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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The trend ain’t no friend of mine. ….

Trends….late Friday night, through Sunday a.m. this too shall adjust. Only thoughts on the model trends. Not etched in stone by any means.

12z ECMWF MSLP/6HR/PRECIP 1/14/20

12z GFS MSLP/6HR/PRECIP 1/14/20

Model agreement yesterday was strong, today is strong as well, but there has been a shift to a bit of warmer air aloft rushing in on both of the major models. If this indeed is the case, that doesn’t bode well for a period of snow lasting long at the onset. Any duration of snow at the onset may be Savage Mt and east, before a changeover to sleet, then freezing rain. Elsewhere it may be very brief snow and rapidly to a mix.

There is a big cold high that is ahead of this system, very cold, dry air mass in place overnight Friday. That’s a big player in low level cold for sleet, freezing rain, even after moving off the coast.

12z ECMWF 2m dewpoints

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With the low pressure tracking into the lakes, the low level cold air should hold for a good portion of Saturday, with the high off the east coast. The depth of the cold air may allow for a duration of sleet to occur in the central and eastern portions of the Alleghenies before a change to freezing rain, and a period of rain later Saturday before going back over to some snow Sunday morning.

Yesterday the totality of the event, from a precip type boundary, and amounts perspective looked similar to the Nov 15, 2018 event. Not the low position or the 500mb pattern(those are well different) just the surface results looked like it would produce similar results for what we see when all is said and done. Right now, model trends are leaning a touch less snowy, and more of a sleet, freezing rain to rain trend late Saturday with backend snow and turning much colder through Sunday.

Snow thoughts are looking more 1-3/2-4″ vs 3-6/4-8″ when all is said and done Sunday.

Still fighting the big southeast ridge(image below)with this storm . It will be a fight with the low level cold in place ahead of what’s going on aloft. 591 heights over Florida generally doesn’t bode well for Wv snow. Pa and north, a increase in snow chances increase rapidly in the pattern. So, for now the thoughts are less snowy and more of a mix for the onset and mix to rain in most areas for brunt of the system with some areas holding on to a mix through Saturday and then see what we can catch on the backside as far as snow goes for upslope.

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Let’s see if the coming model runs trend colder near term

Long term the SE Ridge breaks down.

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Cold is in place by Sunday

12z GFS 2m temp anomalies

Seasonal to below average looks to heavily outweigh above normal temps going forward.

12z GFS 2m temps Garrett County Airport

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with the overall colder pattern in place, the question soon will go to can we get a favorable snowy storm track.

January 13, 2020

Jan 13(Mon)

Overcast day, with some brightening through the afternoon.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[27.5]—MAX[47.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[37.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[34.8]—PRECIP[T]7am

Snowfall season to date 27.1″

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Garrett College

MIN[30.8]—MAX[47.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[39.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[39.5]—PRECIP[.01]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[36.0]—MAX[49.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[32.5]—PRECIP[0]7am

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[37.8]—MAX[46.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[42.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[41.2]—PRECIP[0]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[38.7]—MAX[46.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[42.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.2]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[37.2]—MAX[44.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[40.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[40.1]—PRECIP[0]

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Snowshoe

MIN[39.4]—MAX[46.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[42.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.7]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[23.2]—MAX[48.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[36.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[34.5]

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7Springs

MIN[33.9]—MAX[43.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[38.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[38.9]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[31.1]—MAX[45.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[38.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[36.7]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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Winters return…..

Past 7 days well above normal , and the next few will be as well….

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Month to date, even with the 4-5 day window of winter from the 5-9th period.

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That’s resulted in to this for winter folks

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Today’s departures, well above east, with a very cold push into the NW U.S and some of those remaining spots that way that have above anomalies, will be disappearing and turning blue. By Friday the 10-14 day mean will look a lot like some of those mild Januarys used as examples(37 etc)

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How-Eva—–

The cold begins its push. By Thursday will see slowly falling temperatures through the day with any lingering precip turning into a few snow showers. Very minor event, Friday holds chilly, thanks to a big high to the north. That slides east, but is a big player in the late Friday night/Saturday system. Overnight Friday, temps hold steady to even rise overnight it appears. How much?? Those details are too far out. Typically the warm tongue plows up west of the Mts and over the Wv high ground in this setup. Model runs have trended a touch colder overall with the brunt of this system. The mild sector of the storm may be short lived in the Wv high ground and not at all across north central Garrett and points NE. Those details are still sketchy.. ..

Today’s 12z Model runs

Precip type boundary from snow, sleet, freezing rain, how much of a surge or push the warm tongue has…do some areas have a lengthy period of plain rain?(best chance Wv high ground and west) those exact details are unknown. As of now, Friday night and Saturday need watched. Way to early to say snow amounts, vs sleet/freezing rain, plain rain…… This event preludes a much stronger cold push of air….

If I had a recent event, of storm and precip type, boundary setup, strength wise as this currently looks like to compare to. Nov 15, 2018 would be a comparison I’d use at present… “Archived” . Actual Low position, 500 pattern are not alike, but results could be similar.

12z ECMWF temps for Garrett Airport

Thursdays highs are predawn, that Saturday-Sunday 40°, if that occurs, that’s a 4-8 hour window and the model sees it occurring near midnight, that’s why you see the double 40° for the weekend in what overall looks like a cold weekend ahead……but check out the temps next week. By then, ski resorts will be needing that in a big way.

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The coming cold looks to have “some” holding power. As always, even in cold periods you often have a some bounceback days. Cold looks to outnumber warmth going ahead in the near term once beyond Thursday

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January 12, 2020…

Northern Garrett Cam offline

Jan 12(Sun)

Cloudy, rain ending overnight, wind calming down this afternoon. Some very light precip at times.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[28.9]—MAX[56.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[42.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[41.9]—PRECIP[.69]7am

Snowfall season to date 27.1″

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Garrett College

MIN[30.4]—MAX[59.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[44.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[43.2]—PRECIP[.13]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[36.0]—MAX[56.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[46.0]—PRECIP[.85]7am

Snowfall season to date 41.2″

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[35.9]—MAX[58.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[47.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[44.6]—PRECIP[.01]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[34.5]—MAX[55.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[44.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[41.7]—PRECIP[.04]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[36.0]—MAX[57.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[46.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.2]—PRECIP[.05]

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Wind gust to 60.1mph

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Spruce Knob

MIN[34.3]—MAX[51.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[42.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[40.6]—PRECIP[.02]

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Snowshoe

MIN[35.9]—MAX[51.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[43.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.1]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[26.4]—MAX[59.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[42.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[41.3]

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7Springs

MIN[33.5]—MAX[57.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[45.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[40.5]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[38.6]—MAX[62.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[50.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[52.2]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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January 11, 2020

Jan 11(Sat)

Chillier valleys to start, rapidly warming, turning very windy. A “springlike” day. Got some outside work done. Rain pushing in late day.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[34.2]—MAX[65.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[49.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[51.6]—PRECIP[0]7am

Snowfall season to date 27.1″

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Garrett College

MIN[51.2]—MAX[66.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[58.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[58.9]—PRECIP[.64]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[46.0]—MAX[62.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[54.0]—PRECIP[0]7am

Snowfall season to date 41.2″

Comment by Dave Lesher

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Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[49.9]—MAX[63.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[56.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[57.0]—PRECIP[.85]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[46.2]—MAX[58.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[52.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[52.7]—PRECIP[1.09]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[47.5]—MAX[60.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[54.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[54.4]—PRECIP[.82]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[42.3]—MAX[53.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[47.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[48.5]—PRECIP[.68]

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Snowshoe

MIN[43.9]—MAX[54.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[49.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[49.4]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[50.7]—MAX[64.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[57.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[58.4]

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7Springs

MIN[47.8]—MAX[63.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[55.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[54.9]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[39.0]—MAX[72.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[55.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[56.1]

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the breakthrough of the deep valley chill…once the wind kicked in…bam….

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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January 10, 2020

Jan 10(Fri)

Milder air mass pushing across the area. Some holdouts in the deeper valleys from Savage River, Lonacoaning, Lavale , Cumberland clinging to slightly chillier air from the departing air mass. A few scattered showers in the area this afternoon, mainly western areas.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[19.9]—MAX[55.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[37.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[34.9]—PRECIP[0]

Snowfall season to date 27.1″

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Garrett College

MIN[28.7]—MAX[61.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[45.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[47.7]—PRECIP[0]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[42.0]—MAX[54.0]—AVG[48.0]—PRECIP[0]

Snowfall season to date 41.2″

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[36.7]—MAX[50.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[43.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[43.7]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[37.6]—MAX[52.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[44.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[44.7]—PRECIP[0]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[30.0]—MAX[43.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[36.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[37.9]—PRECIP[0]

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Snowshoe

MIN[28.8]—MAX[44.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[36.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[38.9]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[27.1]—MAX[55.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[41.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[46.1]

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7Springs

MIN[34.1]—MAX[53.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[43.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[47.0]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[24.9]—MAX[51.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[38.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[37.2]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

(Not depicting the cooler valleys well at all)

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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With the 5th through 9th winter window in the books that produced 2 of the better snowfalls on the season in parts of the area, now we go into a lengthy stretch of much above normal temperatures. This looks to run for the next week. Modeling hints at a return to cold weather late next week. To what extent, remains unknown. Initial shot looks brief, and weaker vs what it did appear like on the GFS. The GFS was going crazy with the cold on yesterdays runs and lots of sites were screaming wait until late week, bitter cold! For good reason by going off the one model. This was the GFS yesterday mornings run showing for next Friday morning temp anomalies

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This morning for next Friday morning , backing off some…

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Yesterdays 12z continued the cold look. Here was yesterdays 12z run for next Friday afternoon

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here is this mornings 6z run for the exact same time period 1pm next Friday. Its progressively less cold for late week. Still cold, and much much colder than the next few days, and more in line with seasonal weather, but not what it was shown yesterday.

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There is still plenty cold on the playing field, but backing off from the extreme, “for now”. This model has a cold bias and a speed bias that shouldn’t be ignored, but often is ignored when its click bait or what one hope’s for. Its been seen all winter. That’s not to say the extreme doesn’t attempt a push at that time and models revert back to it. I’m just saying its backing away and use caution with it.. “More than likely” its a little beyond this period.

The ECMWF currently looks like this for next Friday afternoon

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on yesterdays 12z run looked like

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The difference- some areas the GFS was showing teens yesterday and 20s west side of the mts, now 20s, 30s, while the ECMWF was and is 40s, even 50s yet on the west side of the Mts.

What may occur. Late week chills into the 30s on Thursday, with steady to falling temps through the day and rebounds 30s, low 40s into Friday, no temp fall Friday night with a southerly flow, then the weekend sees a temperature rebound of 40s to 50 with the front side of the next system. With the typical cold zones possibly holding cold for onset ice?…Immediately behind that system as it passes, is probably when the cold air really pushes the following week. Only speculation based off the modeling biases and anything in detail beyond 5- 7 days in this pattern is always just speculation. I just don’t like ignoring a milder model that’s performed better(“better” used very loosely) for a colder model just because I want it to get cold. We still live in reality.

Snowfall off the ECMWF next 10 days

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GFS next 10 days

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Obviously any threat of snow is occurring towards the end of the 10 day. So expect changes.

Finally though, some positive signs off the models for a colder later January trend.. Snow lovers have some suffering to go through now for at least the next 7-10 days in the heart of January. That sucks.

Totality of the next 10 days in the means

ECMWF

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GEFS(which has not been upgraded as the GFS operational has been)

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Winter is not dead though and January is not dead and the 37 January look gets attacked by the cold push and the snow miser looks to get his grip later January after the heat miser has his way the next week

Even the ECMWF seeing it later January

Ensembles(Ensembles will not show an extreme 10 days out, especially in a pattern with so much warmth vs cold on the table. 51 members averaging themselves out. It can show a trend though)

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ECMWF control by Jan 20

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Bring on the Snow miser after the Heat miser has his fun…

Will update with newer runs.

January 9, 2020

Jan 9

Very cold start, especially across the valley areas. Times of clouds and sun today. High overcast just post daybreak.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[5.2]—MAX[31.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[18.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[19.8]—PRECIP[0]

Snowfall season to date 27.1″

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Garrett College

MIN[7.2]—MAX[35.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[21.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[22.8]—PRECIP[0]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[18.0]—MAX[48.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[33.0]

Snowfall season to date 41.2″

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[13.9]—MAX[45.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[29.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[29.8]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[13.1]—MAX[43.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[28.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[32.4]—PRECIP[0]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[13.1]—MAX[46.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[29.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[31.8]—PRECIP[0]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[13.8]—MAX[41.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[27.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[29.2]—PRECIP[0]

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Snowshoe

MIN[18.5]—MAX[42.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[30.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[31.8]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[1.9]—MAX[48.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[25.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.0]

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7Springs

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[15.6]—MAX[36.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[25.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[26.5]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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The Glades

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RTMA

Radar

Void of precip

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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Pics today

Bittinger area

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Accident-Mchenry

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Grantsville

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January 8, 2020

Jan 8(Wed)

Very windy, pockets of snow showers and squalls, mainly north and EAST! Formation east of the Alleghenies occured.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[16.1]—MAX[30.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[23.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[26.0]

.1″ new snowfall, that came with a predawn snowshower, squalls avoided the area

Season to date total snowfall 27.1″

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Garrett College

MIN[17.1]—MAX[29.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[23.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[26.6]—PRECIP[F]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[16.0]—MAX[27.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[21.5]—PRECIP[.41]7am

Snowfall from yesterday and last night new 4.8″

Snowfall season to date 41.2″

Comments by Dave Lesher

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Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[17.8]—MAX[27.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[22.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.1]—PRECIP[.02]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[13.6]—MAX[23.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[18.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[20.1]—PRECIP[F]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[14.4]—MAX[24.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[19.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[21.3]—PRECIP[F]

Wind gust to 60.5mph

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Spruce Knob

MIN[14.4]—MAX[21.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[18.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[19.1]—PRECIP[F]

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Snowshoe

MIN[18.0]—MAX[24.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[21.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[21.3]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[15.6]—MAX[28.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[22.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.4]

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7Springs

MIN[13.7]—MAX[26.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[20.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[21.8]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[26.2]—MAX[38.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[32.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[34.7]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan Area Temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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Pics today

Bittinger area

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Grantsville area

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Oakland morning

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January 7, 2020

Jan 7(Tues)

Cloudy start with snow rolling in around 9am rapidly covering things. The main accumulation occured from 9am to 1pm, with some additional through 4pm. Calm during the snow, winds increasing after nightfall.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[19.2]—MAX[29.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[24.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.7]—PRECIP[0]7AM

Snowfall today 3.8″ at 4pm after event completion

Snowfall season to date 27.0″

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Garrett College

MIN[23.0]—MAX[30.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[26.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[27.4]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[23.0]—MAX[28.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[25.5]—PRECIP[0]

Snowfall tally will be included in Dave’s report in the morning

Comments by Dave Lesher

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Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[16.9]—MAX[31.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[24.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.0]—PRECIP[.36]S

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[18.7]—MAX[27.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[23.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[22.3]—PRECIP[F]

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Cabin Mt Western Sods

MIN[19.6]—MAX[25.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[22.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[23.2]—PRECIP[F]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[17.2]—MAX[26.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[21.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[21.6]—PRECIP[F]

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Snowshoe

MIN[18.3]—MAX[28.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[23.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[22.2]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[9.5]—MAX[30.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[20.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[23.0]

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7Springs

MIN[24.1]—MAX[28.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[26.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[26.0]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[19.9]—MAX[37.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[28.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[28.6]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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pics today

Bittinger area to McHenry

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January 6, 2019

Jan 6(Mon)

Clouds early, few flurries that quickly dissipated. Leaving behind partly sunny skies and windy conditions

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[27.8]—MAX[34.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[31.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[32.0]—PRECIP[T]

Snowfall season to date 23.2″

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Garrett College

MIN[29.4]—MAX[35.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[32.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[32.4]—PRECIP[0]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[19.0]—MAX[32.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[25.5]—PRECIP[T]

Snowfall season to date 36.4″

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[20.8]—MAX[27.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[23.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[24.4]—PRECIP[0]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[23.4]—MAX[28.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[26.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.8]—PRECIP[0]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[20.1]—MAX[25.3]AVERAGE MEAN[22.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[22.8]—PRECIP[0]

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Snowshoe

MIN[19.0]—MAX[26.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[22.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[23.2]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[10.8]—MAX[32.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[21.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[27.6]

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7Springs

MIN[27.8]—MAX[31.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[29.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[29.4]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[31.6]—MAX[46.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[38.8]—TRUE AVERAFE[41.7]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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Making the most of the brief opportunity….

The 4-5 Day winter window

The overnight front last night came through mainly dry, with the exception of the northern Alleghenies seeing the best coverage of some light snow shower activity. Temps also rose some overnight ahead of the front, then leveled off as it passed, and now steady to slowly dropping a few degrees through the day with some gusty winds .

The front that crossed early this morning…with limited moisture.

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After a lull today, tonight, snow returns to the area tomorrow with a system from the SW, pressing through with a bullseye 3-6″ zone. (As always lean low to mid range, a good performance gives the top range) across the Wv mts, with 1-3″ outside that bullseye zone. There is some variance on the northern edge of the system.

Model output, not a forecast. Only a tool.

Timing kicks this off during the morning hours tomorrow going into the evening.. A relatively fast mover, but likely will cause travel issues during the day tomorrow.

6z ECMWF 10 to 1, through 10pm Tuesday. This is likely a little over 10 to 1 across the high ground. I elected not to use Kuchera parameter as I believe Weatherbell needs to make another adjustment to that parameter.

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Kuchera ratio off the 6z ECMWF. Again likely overdone as it has been.

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6Z GFS Kuchera Ratio off weather.us.

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WPC OUTLOOK..this is a product of the WPC, I’ve seen some news outlets slap their own label on it.

Probability of 2″ and 4″

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one area of weakness of the WPC, is the backside upslope that comes in Wednesday a.m into the day Wednesday. This is accompanied by very cold air and has 1-3″ of fluff potential. (mainly northern half of the Alleghenies with that backside upslope it appears) out of very limited moisture. High ratio fluff

6z ECMWF on the backside upslope

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My thoughts(this is a freehand drawn outline, exact boundaries will vary) again lean low to mid range, good performance gets top end of target zone. East of the Mts tomorrow, spots of 3″ plus possible.

Part 1 ………………………….. Part 2 upslope

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That sets up Wednesday night….

Clearing skies

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Light to calm winds

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Low dew points

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That combo shouts that some of the coldest valleys drop below 0 briefly. High ground may hold teens to around 20.

Then………..

0°-60° in 2.2 days…..maybe

The return flow warmth

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Thursday the chill begins to modify, overall its still cold.

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Friday the climb is greater

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Saturday even greater and I believe this will be underdone

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Last nights ECMWF for Saturday

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Typically with a southerly surge and if precip holds off, the high end is often met or exceeded 56-65 on Saturday looks like a reality. Outdoor BBQ if the rain holds off??

This is accompanied by

Southerly winds gusting

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And high dew points

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That combo is a rapid snow eater. …ugh

A sharp cutoff from warm to colder exist Saturday, just to our NW, some wintry precip exist up there….But we are on the wrong side of that boundary…

Below the 6z GFS on Saturday. That high north is too slow to get in front and feed any cold air into some of the typical ice zones. Allowing the warm air to over spread the entire area.

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that chillier air briefly pushes in on Sunday, after most of the moisture is gone.

Beyond that, the dominance looks to be ridge east, trough west. Maybe some system cuts through with some wintry weather in the heart of the overall mild pattern… that is possible, but sustained winter is not upon us.

Off the 6z GFS and a larger uncertainty in the long range vs near term obviously… that Sunday max would be falling through the day …

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MJO , still ugly ..into 4,5,6

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Phase correlation to temps

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And correlation to precip

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the Teconnections still look poor…All the opposite of a cold eastern U.S

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the lone help next week may come from the EPO. The ECMWF holds it neutral to positive, but the GFS takes it negative. That allows cold to push some…lots of resistance though in that SE ridge. Any coming cold over the next few weeks looks very brief and in and out rapidly.

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Ski Resorts need to heed the outlooks and go all out on snow making through all the available opportunities this week.

NOAAs 6-10, 8-14 day outlook

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While there are variances as we see with this current window of winter that didnt occur in 37, the January 1937 overall setup and look however is very much alive in January 2020.

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January 5, 2019

Jan 5(Sun)

Snow overnight, heavier south. Few flurries left this a.m and there was patchy freezing drizzle. Brief but it existed this morning with temps lower to mid 20s. Breezy today as well. Fog and rime after the snow in some of the high Wv ground .

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[23.3]—MAX[33.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[28.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.8]—PRECIP[M]

Snowfall 1.9″ new snow

Season to date 23.2

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Garrett College

MIN[22.8]—MAX[32.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[27.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.5]—PRECIP[F]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[20]—MAX[27.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[23.5]—PRECIP(.94]

New snowfall 7.8″

Season to date snowfall 36.4″

Comments by Dave Lesher

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Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[21.1]—MAX[31.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[26.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[23.1]—PRECIP[.20]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[17.8]—MAX[26.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[22.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[19.7]—PRECIP[F]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[18.9]—MAX[26.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[22.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[20.6]—PRECIP[F]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[16.7]—MAX[24.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[20.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[18.5]—PRECIP[F]

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Snowshoe

MIN[17.2]–MAX[25.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[21.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[19.6]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[16.5]—MAX[32.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[24.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[24.2]

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7Springs

MIN[21.1]—MAX[29.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[25.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[23.0]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[31.6]—MAX[38.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[35.2]—TRUE AVERAGE(34.2]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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Midday update:

In this small window of winter, for now all is well…..for now…..

Snow totals

Bittinger 2nw Valley 1.9″

McHenry 4.8 SSE 1.5″

Canaan Heights 7.8″

Canaan Valley 4.9″

Mt. Lake Park 2.0″

Terra Alta 4.9NNE 3.1″

Thomas 7.4N 2.6

Snowshoe 4.0″

With scenes like this

Near Bittinger, Garrett County 1/5/20

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Grantsville 1/5/20

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Canaan 1/5/20

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The Resorts

Canaan 4:15pm

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Snowshoe 4:15pm(skies cleared there)

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Wisp

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7Springs

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This 5 day window of winter is beginning great and all looks well…..for now

Over the next few days, it looks even better.

Light snow tonight with the passage of a cold front, additional light accumulations of 1″ of fluff possible in spots.

Then a better organized system looks to come through the area on Tuesday. Tweaks will need to the exact placement of the best axis of snow, but 3-6″ bullseyes look likely with this with 1-3″ outside of that area.

The current ECMWF looks like. This by no means is etched in stone. Expect tweaks.

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That will carry us to Wednesday night

Light winds, clear skies, low dewpoints currently being shown off the models. I prefer the 3km Nam for these details once inside 48 hours. This combo with accompanying snowpack should lead to some possible below 0 readings in the coldest valleys. If any one if these factors are off, that will erase those thoughts.

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This comes in ahead of the dreaded SW flow and milder temps late week. A notch up on Thursday and more substantial on Friday into Saturday. That is accompanied by rain.

The dominate pattern beyond Friday looks to be the ridge east, trough west.

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NOAAs 8-14 day outlook

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another 37 look??

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Upcoming 10 day precip anomalies off the ECMWF

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The MJO

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Mjo correlation

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Precip , looks to fit the phase 5-6

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Teleconnections off the 12z ECMWF ensemble

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A little hope in the teleconnections..

Overall expect the 10th to 20th period and maybe beyond to be dominated by well above normal temps. Possibly a few 60s in that period.

Performance

Thursday night

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Friday night

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