Dec 29(Sat)               min      max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley        26.9       48.0     37.4

Garrett College       26.9       48.5     37.7

Can-Heights            25.6       44.3     35.0

CRN-Canaan

Cabin Mt

Cabin Mt north

Spruce Knob        23.9         39.0        31.4

Snowshoe             25.5        41.2       33.2

Can-Valley Floor  28.2       46.9       37.5

7Springs                24.0       46.0       35.0

Cloudy, some high elevation fog(some wv rime up high). I had some fine light flakes late day, early overnight.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar(not much)

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

On the models ..

Really really blah pattern for winter lovers.. fast Pacific flow, ridge SE, not much winter action. Model variation late next week offers a slim hope of snow…

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

 

Dec 28(Fri)           min.      max        avg

Bitt 2nw valley     35.1       52.4      43.7

Garrett College     39.3       57.5      48.4

Can-Heights          42.9       51.3      47.1

CRN-Canaan government shutdown

Cabin Mt    x

Cabin Mt north    x

Spruce Knob         34.5       44.8       39.6

Snowshoe              36.9       50.2      43.5

Can-Valley Floor  45.5       52.7      49.1

7Springs                36.2        54.5     45.3

Cloudy, some low fog early. Chillier sheltered valleys, milder hilltops. After some steady rain last night, patchy drizzle and sprinkles at times today was all.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Screenshot_20181228-210541

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

http://www.skisoutheast.com/bizarre-interview-weather-channel-snowshoe-mountain/

Dec 27(Thurs)          min       max     avg

Bitt 2nw valley         15.5        39.3     27.4

Garrett College         23.1        42.5     32.8

Can-Heights              24.4        43.0     33.7

CRN-Canaan         government shutdown

Cabin Mt                  28.9        40.5     34.7

Cabin Mt north x

Spruce Knob          25.5        35.2      30.3

Snowshoe               25.7       37.4      31.5

Can-Valley Floor   11.3       45.9      28.6

7Springs                 28.9       38.9      33.9

Partly cloudy start, partly sunny day until mid afternoon when a cloud deck moved in. SE winds

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

On the models…

Rain pushing in tonight. Bigger deal southern Alleghenies. A few pockets along the Allegheny Front may briefly see a little freezing precip, before rapid warming tomorrow a.m. (50s)Areas east of the mts tomorrow may hold chillier. Colder air back in Friday night into Saturday a.m,few flakes even with no accu. Rain returns Monday and not until next week this time do we have a shot for some white. Beyond next weekend winter may make an attempt to take hold more.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

Weeklies

Dec 26(Wed)            min.     max      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       13.1       36.5      24.8

Garrett College       18.6       42.3     30.5

Can-Heights            13.3       35.7     24.5

CRN-Canaan

Cabin Mt.                 18.5       40.1     29.3

Cabin Mt north       x

Spruce Knob         22.6         32.5     27.5

Snowshoe              23.5        37.6      30.4

Can-Valley Floor    2.5        39.4       20.9

7Springs                23.3        36.0       29.6

Few clouds early, otherwise basically a wall to wall clear blue sky day

Temp profile this afternoon

 

 

 

Radar is free and clear of any precip.

Satellite still and regional in motion , also included modis subset regional view that shows snow cover over the Alleghenies

Screenshot_20181226-203240

ChesapeakeBayWatershed.2018360.terra.250m.borders

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

Pics today

 

 

Video by SkiSouthEast at Snowshoe

Video from Canaan Resort by Justin Harris

          CHRISTMAS DAY

Dec 25(Tues)         min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley      10.6       30.9      20.7

Garrett College      12.9       31.1     22.0

Can-Heights            14.4       29.4    21.9

CRN-Canaan            18         29       23.5

Cabin Mt                  17.1      29.3    23.2

Cabin Mt north     x

Spruce Knob          18.1      24.3     21.2

Snowshoe               18.0      26.4     22.2

Can-Valley Floor    6.1       35.6     20.8

7Springs                 18.5      26.0    22.2

Thin partial  overcast  at daybreak. Thicker clouds Tucker on south. Today some varying high thin cloud cover to partly sunny skies

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar(I believe all precip in the Alleghenies on radar was virga)

On ground snow. Bittinger 2nw Valley morning 12/25/18 maintained at 5″ depth2018-12-25-21-07-18

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

Dec 24(Mon)              min      max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley         20.2       31.6     25.9

Garrett College         22.0       31.5     26.8

Can-Heights               20.4      28.6     24.5

CRN-Canaan              21         29        25

Cabin Mt                    17.2      26.1     21.6

Cabin Mt north        x

Spruce Knob            16.1       24.9     20.5

Snowshoe                 16.3      24.4     20.3

CAN-Valley Floor     23.0     30.6     26.8

7Springs                    20.7     29.1     24.9

Cloudy start, few flakes remain. Few interval/periods with sun mixed in with a mainly cloudy theme

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar

Snowfall 3.7″ at Bittinger 2nw Valley,  5.1″ depth, year to date total at 24.8″

 

Canaan Heights picking up 4.7″ with a season to date total at 35.8″

24 hour graphic, 72 hour graphic, season to date graphic

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics today

Video by Justin Harris on Cabin Mt

Dec 23(Sun)                 min.    max    avg

Bitt 2nw valley           24.0     34.4      29.2

Garrett College          27.1     35.1      31.0

Can-Heights               23.1     34.2      28.7

CRN-Canaan               24        34        29

Cabin Mt                    21.2      31.8     26.5

Cabin Mt north        x

Spruce Knob            19.2       26.6     22.9

Snowshoe                 20.1       28.2     24.2

Can-Valley Floor     25.2       37.0     31.1

7Springs                   24.5       32.7     28.6

Partly cloudy start, increasing clouds this afternoon and snow after nightfall.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

Pics today by ski patrol at Canaan

 

 

Video at Deep Creek Lake webcam after nightfall

9Rt 40 cam that faces west plastered over

Dec 22(Sat)             min      max      avg

Bitt 2nw valley      27.6      31.7      29.6

Garrett College      27.3      31.7      29.5

Can-Heights           23.9      29.1      26.5

CRN-Canaan           25         30       27.5

Cabin Mt               21.4       27.1     24.2

Cabin Mt north   x

Spruce Knob       20.1       26.1      23.1

Snowshoe            20.1       26.4     23.2

Can-Valley Floor 26.1      31.3     28.7

7Springs               25.2      29.3     27.2

Snow, mostly light today, windy..some high ground fog at times

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

 

Snowfall Picked up 2.3″ at Bittinger 2nw  by 8am. Then an additional .7 for. 8am until 4pm boardsweep. 3.0″ total for 21.2″ on the season

Canaan Heights 5.3″ total overnight through 7pm for 31.2″ season total

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics today

Dec 21(Fri)              min.      max     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       30.7      50.9      40.8

Garrett College      30.7      55.4       43.1

Can-Heights           27.9      51.6       39.8

CRN-Canaan           29        53          41

Cabin Mt                25.5      47.5      36.5

Cabin Mt north     x

Spruce Knob         25.0       44.8      34.9

Snowshoe              25.2      45.7       35.5

Can-Valley Floor  30.0      53.8      41.9

7Springs.               28.1      47.3      37.7

Cloudy, showers, some low fog to start. Valleys cooler than high areas. By late morning all areas 48-55.. Some breaks of sun, even a rainbow. Clouds, fog, rain return afternoon, dropping temps, rain to snow by 7pm. Ground white by 8pm.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with 24 estimates 10pm. At 7am Bittinger 2nw in at .33

Screenshot_20181221-221636.jpg

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

Looking ahead

Snow tonight, general 2-4 eastern Alleghenies, 3-6″ central, 4-8 best upslope areas….  A event Sunday night looks to drop a few more inches…  Christmas Day looks to have snow on the ground

Dec 20(Thur)           min.     max      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       21.7       41.4     31.5

Garrett College       25.9     47.2      36.5

Can-Heights           35.9      46.8     41.3

CRN-Canaan         29       48         39.5

Cabin Mt               36.0      46.1      41.0

Cabin Mt north    x

Spruce Knob        36.0      42.1     39.0

Snowshoe            34.7       45.3    40.0

Can-Valley Floor 17.8       48.4    33.1

7Springs                34.0      43.7   38.8

Mainly clear start, fairly wide temp ranges overnight from valley to high ground. Clouds building in, rain in the afternoon. Temps into the 30-35 range in eastern Alleghenies. Weather Service with their grid forecast will never get this right apparently, despite it being modeled very well.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Screenshot_20181220-212731

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

As much as I hate this, the NWS forecast grid, the repeatedly using of this grid to forecast temps in this setup is just plain awful. This is probably the 1000th time I’ve mentioned it over the years. Why on earth is this grid used, when there are high real models that do much better and have proven so, time and time again. No forecast mentioned 30s this afternoon, let alone near freezing. 3km Nam showed it clearly and the models track record in the setup is phenomenal.   Let’s look… Temps, then NWS forecast beginning tonight.. You’ll see not only well off this evening, they flood the warmth back in way to fast tonight. Big consistent warm bias…

 

12z 3km Nam 2m temperatures from the morning

Now a look back to last night..Screenshot_20181219-221843

That was min forecast. That is airport grid based..That forecast done poor for most locations. High ground held near 36-40 most of the night. A lot of towns sit a  little lower, a lot of people live in valleys, hollows, creek bottoms. Temps there ran mostly 20-27°. (Coldest pockets teens) Why would you not give a forecast for those 2 distinct areas vs a general 32° everyone near or above freezing…not even remotely near reality. The temps were off that not very long after that forecast was issued.