Oct 3.                     min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley   55.1       73.3     64.2

Garrett College    62.3       74.8      68.5

Can-Heights         59.1        70.3     64.7

CRN-Canaan        58.4        72.6     65.5

Cabin Mt              59.0        68.5     63.7

Cabin Mt north   59.7       69.3     64.5

Spruce Knob x

Snowshoe            59.4       68.4      63.9

Can-Valley Floor  50.0     72.5      61.2

7Springs               59.7       69.6     64.7

Rain last night, cloudy a.m with sun breaking through as the morning went by.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm… Picked up .30 at Bittinger 2nw Valley since last evening.

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow…

On the models……

Ridge east, trough west theme continues. Still correlates nicely with the phase 1 MJO that has held in place. Modeling trying to bring it into phase 2 mid month. If so, cold likely is able to push finally. Wait and see. Short term-

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Pics today

Oct 2.                        min.      max.        avg

Bitt 2nw valley        49.8        72.4       61.1

Garrett College        53.8        73.0       63.2

Can-Heights.            56.5         69.9       64.2

CRN-Canaan            57.7         69.6       65.5

Cabin Mt                  58.1         64.6       61.3

Cabin Mt north       58.5         68.2      63.3

Spruce Knob.  x

Snowshoe                58.8          63.7     61.2

Can-Valley Floor    45.0          70.2     57.6

7Springs                  62.5           68.4   65.4

Partly cloudy start to quickly building random storms after daybreak. The low eastern sun, incoming storm, big puffy white and dark clouds gave a weird hue to the morning sky, with even a rainbow forming in the western sky. Morning showers, then mainly cloudy with a few peaks o sun. Late evening storm that put out a lot of severe watches, including tornado.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm..picked up .05 at Bittinger 2nw Valley through 6pm, that was with the morning showers

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics today

Late day severe weather…

 

7 years ago today

1st snow of the season across the Wv high ground.  4-10″ fell across the Wv mts above 3500 with a few inches down to 3000′.  Temps marginal in that lower elevation range. I spent the night of Oct 1, morning of Oct 2nd on Spruce Knob. By morning several inches of snow had accumulated. Going down the east side, snow accumulation on the ground quickly tapered off, but the trees seemed to hold more. Enough so, there were some trees down.  Once below 3800′ things were mainly bare. At Canaan the valleys were bare, but light accumulations above 3500′. Through that day, snow levels lowered and picked back up. Temps failed to climb above freezing across some of the high ground the 2nd and 3rd.

Spruce Knob after round 1 of 2 (all these pics Oct 2, 2011)

Seneca Rocks, all clear down low

Canaan Heights after round 1 of 2

Oct 1.                      min.       max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       49.1       73.4     61.2

Garrett College       54.1       76.2     65.1

Can-Heights            57.2       72.3     64.8

CRN-Canaan           56.3        74.2    65.2

Cabin Mt                 56.8        72.1    64.4

Cabin Mt north      57.2        73.2    65.2

Spruce Knob.        x

Snowshoe               57.9        69.8     63.9

Can-Valley Floor   48.2        74.8      61.5

7Springs                 60.7        71.5      66.1

Cloudy start in spots. Quickly turning into a partly cloudy nice fall day

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar void of precip, 3rd straight complete day

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Sept 30.             min.       max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley   40.5        69.2     54.8

Garrett College   43.5        75.8    59.7

Can-Heights        47.6        70.5    59.0

CRN-Canaan       42.2        72.0     57.1

Cabin Mt.             49.5        69.1     59.3

Cabin Mt north   50.2        72.3    61.2

Spruce Knob x station down

Snowshoe           53.2         66.2     59.7

Can-Valley Floor  37.0      74.8     55.9

7Springs               49.5        69.9     59.7

Partly Sunny day.  Really a perfect mild fall day.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Canaan Mt bog as seen from Cabin Mt. Temp bottomed out at 37° on the bog, vs upper 40s, low 50s outside of that pocket across the top.

 

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

Foliage at present- Anthracnose has took its toll on the typical early changing vibrant maples. From yesterday to today. Things of notice. The high ground across the sods, excluding the reds of the huckleberry/blueberry. Trees are mainly bare or of poor dull color on what remains. The huckleberry/blueberry reds look like a peak in 7-10 days is likely. That said, some are dropping reds, while some half green. Spruce Knob and west,70- 80% bare trees. Riding to Spruce Knob lake, color that was shared on social media a week ago, was basically gone today. This holds true for the areas around the Sinks and along Gandy Creek.

Up to Canaan the lower 2/3rds of Cabin Mt and areas within the valley look like a peak in 10-14 days. This area, for whatever reason looks less affected by anthracnose vs surrounding areas. East side of Canaan Mt looks poor, and on top of Canaan Mt, currently at peak, and not anywhere near as vibrant as typical. Once those maples drop, it will be basically bare. The west side of Canaan Mt, fair amount of color with a peak in 6-10 days.

Backbone Mt and west, some color, lots of green. 2-3 weeks away for good color if it exists.

The holdouts for the best color looks to be portions within Canaan that hold a heavy concentration of birch, and the Blackwater Canyon. The birch look largely unaffected. Peak in 14 days +/-.

North in Garrett. Colors are advancing. Again the typical early changing maples, mostly are bare. Around Deep Creek Lake, which holds a high concentration of oak varieties. Mostly green. Late month when they turn there dull color and oaks are also affected by anthracnose. Marsh Hill has lots of birch, as does Swallow Falls area, expect a peak similiar to Blackwater…

  Month Summary

Temps Sept 2018

 

Bittinger 2nw Valley

 

CRN-Canaan

Precipitation

 

I finished with 11.2″ at Bittinger 2nw Valley ….elsewhere,

 

Sept 29.                    min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       43.8        63.1      53.4

Garrett College       47.0        66.0      56.5

Can-Heights            48.3        62.5      55.4

CRN-Canaan           45.0        64.2      54.6

Cabin Mt                 48.6        64.0      56.3

Cabin Mt north     49.8         62.6     56.2

Spruce Knob        X

Snowshoe              48.4        60.4      54.4

Can-Valley Floor  41.5        64.9      53.2

7Springs                 49.5       59.0      54.2

Cloudy start, to a partly cloudy to partly sunny day.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar-Void of precip

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Comparisons

Overall folliage season has come and across Spruce Knob and west, mostly gone for the season. Foliage was brief, not vivid and now lots of bare trees. Anthracnose I suspect played a big role. Any foliage maps that say anything lrss than past peak in this area, simply is not correct. Dolly Sods, the reds of the huckleberries, blueberries. While red-ish, peak is likely a week off. However some peaked in a few patches, and are falling off, some yet are half green. A very abnormal season. The trees across the sods. west of the Allegheny Front. Bare, to dull color, few greens. Again, poor season. Canaan Valley, not a lot of valley color yet, with some dull color and a few bare patches.

East side path atop Spruce Knob 2018-2017

South end of Whispering Spruce Trail viewing west 2018-2017

East overlook Spruce Knob 2018-2017

Western side of Spruce Knob 2018-2017

Sept 28.               min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley    45.4       63.2       54.3

Garrett College    49.9       66.5       58.2

Can-Heights         50.9       64.6       57.8

CRN-Canaan        50.7       65.7       58.2

Cabin Mt              49.8       63.3     56.6

Cabin Mt north   45.9      63.3      54.6

Spruce Knob       48.2       63.7      55.9

Snowshoe            50.2       62.4      56.3

Can-Valley Floor 42.8       66.7     54.7

7Springs               48.1        61.3     54.7

Cloudy, foggy, dreary start, skies began breaking midday for a blue sun shiny afternoon that has been rare lately. Last night’s rain ended a predawn.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm 

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models

Short term only. Busy and on the go, time limited. Tomorrow looks dry, cool, slightly milder Sunday. Nighttime temps have a outside shot of dipping to the 30s in the coldest valleys.

Comparison

Not a great comparison in foliage, but a comparison vs last year. 1 day early this year.  Reds of the blueberry, huckleberry MUCH earlier last year. They were peaking from mid Sept last year through late Sept.  Still showing green yet this year.

 

 

 

 

 

some other pics on the day

Sept 27.                  min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       49.3       55.8      52.5

Garrett College       49.1       57.3      53.2

Can-Heights            48.2       56.4      52.3

CRN-Canaan           50.1       56.2      53.1

Cabin Mt                 46.4       55.6      51.0

Cabin Mt north      45.5      54.3       49.9

Spruce Knob          46.8      56.5      51.6

Snowshoe               50.4      57.7     55.2

Can-Valley Floor   50.4       58.8    55.6

7Springs                 48.6       53.1    50.8

Cloudy, to rain, rain began earlier in the southern Alleghenies.. Rain, steady to moderate, at times heavy. Fog across wv high ground.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm event totals, including the wee hours in to the 28th when the rain halted. Bittinger 2nw Valley 1.7, Garrett College 1.47, Canaan Heights 1.17, CRN 1.68, Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 1.87, Northern Cabin Mt 1.61, Spruce Knob 1.74, Snowshoe 1.61, 7Springs 1.5

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models..

Short term, heavy rain early tonight, into the predawn hours of Friday, before becoming scattered, and light and shutting off  with the clouds breaking some tomorrow. Chilly few days ahead before moderating Sunday. Monitoring a shot at some scattered pockets of 30s Saturday and or Sunday a.m. Be careful out tonight with the flooding occuring.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

Sept 26.                   min.     max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley      56.0      68.9      62.4

Garrett College      57.3      69.6      63.4

Can-Heights           57.2      68.5      62.8

CRN-Canaan          56.4      67.5      61.9

Cabin Mt                55.9       62.4     59.1

Cabin Mt north     54.5      66.9     60.7

Spruce Knob         56.5      63.5      60.0

Snowshoe              57.6      61.7      59.7

Can-Valley Floor   59.2     70.3      64.7

7Springs                 53.1     67.5      60.3

Cloudy, and a showery day. More so than anticipated. That did cutoff the severe risk.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm , radar and estimates not doing the best today picking up on all the showers. Picked up .35 at Bittinger 2nw Valley, Garrett College .3, Canaan Heights .3, CRN .22, Cabin Mt at Bald Knob .21, Northern Cabin Mt .28, Spruce Knob .08, Snowshoe .26, 7Springs .28

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

On the models

Showers and periods of rain look to return tomorrow afternoon and run into Friday morning before becoming more widely scattered and shutting down. Very isolated shot at a pop up Mt shower Saturday.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF total precip through the next rain tomorrow into early Friday. 12z also including this afternoons rain

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

18z GFS total precip through the rain event tomorrow into Friday

Sept 25                 min.       max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley      56.2        69.1      62.6

Garrett College      56.7        70.8      63.7

Can-Heights           55.5        68.5      62.0

CRN-Canaan          57.5        70.5      64.0

Cabin Mt.               53.4         66.2      59.8

Cabin Mt north     53.8        69.4      61.6

Spruce Knob         54.1        64.6       59.3

Snowshoe              57.0        61.7       59.3

Can-Valley Floor   56.1       74.3      65.2

7Springs                 54.3        65.7      60.0

Rainy start, rainy morning, a mini break midday, early afternoon, rsin mid afternoon, early evening before quieting down.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm. At Bittinger 2nw Valley, picked up 1.15 since last evening at 6pm… Garrett College 1.0, Canaan Heights .6, CRN .41, Cabin at Bald Knob .48, Northern Cabin Mt .6, Spruce Knob .18, Snowshoe .19, 7Springs 1.0

 

 

 

 

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

On the models….

After a rainy day today, a mini reprieve before eyes go to the cold front tomorrow late afternoon or evening. This may contain some severe weather. Looks like the brunt stays north, but needs watched. Beyond that, a shot at some rsin Thursday night into Friday before “hopefully” a dry weekend for a change.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF precip through tomorrows cold front(*some of this afternoons rain included in this)

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

Sept 24                  min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley    53.5        57.1       55.3

Garrett College    53.6        57.7      55.6

Can-Heights         53.5        56.0      54.8

CRN-Canaan        54.4        57.9      56.2

Cabin Mt              50.9        53.6       52.2

Cabin Mt north   50.5        54.0       52.2

Spruce Knob       51.1        54.1       52.6

Snowshoe            54.3        57.0      55.7

Can-Valley Floor 54.7       58.1      56.4

7Springs                52.4      55.4      53.9

Cloudy, fog, drizzly….dreary sums up today

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm, .15 at Bittinger 2nw Valley…apologies for poor radar image. Normal site is down

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models….

Showery day tomorrow and milder….then eyes go to a cold front late Wednesday with some storms…

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Longer range, still no extended dry periods in sight, and the model battle of what happens in the long term remains. As of now, the intrusion of the chill looks weak, and largely gets turned off to the north. That first 10 days of October contains lots of question. Some model runs break the ridge, some do not. Some bring in the seasons first flakes, some runs hold above seasonal temps. Worried(as a cold lover) the ridge has holding power until week 2 Oct. Part of that is the MJO..

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF total precip through Wednesdays cold front

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

18z GFS Total precip through Wednesdays cold front

18z GFS 2m temperatures next 384hrs

Long range,18z GFS ensembles maintain the ridge in the east through the period. ECMWF is very similiarNow look at that pattern the GEFS holds on to and compare that to MJO correlation that is holding phase 8 and 1

Look at what phase 8 and 1 is correlated to bring. So, that may be a hint, that ridge will fight to hold.

This is not to say a strong front can’t push through during this. A few ECMWF and GFS ensemble members see the cold booting the ridge. A few 12z ECMWF ensemble seeing flakes in early Oct.

Pics today