Allegheny Mountains Weather

Sept 3.                         min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley         57.3       82.1      69.7

Garrett College         60.6      86.2      73.4

Can-Heights              61.6      79.3      70.4

CRN-Canaan             59.7      80.9      70.3

Cabin Mt                   62.8       77.7     70.2

Cabin Mt north       64.6       78.8      71.7

Spruce Knob            61.5       75.4     68.4

Snowshoe                 65.3       77.9     71.6

Can-Valley Floor      51.6       80.8    66.2

7Springs                    71.3       82.7     77.0

Mainly clear start, a few clouds. Some valley fog. Clouds bubbling late morning and showers, storms building first along the eastern ridges then developing west. Warm, muggy, the showers were enough to kick temps back into the upper 60s where they occured.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm. I picked up .4 at Bittinger 2nw Valley with a afternoon downpour

 

 

Last pic is looking north from near Bittinger 2nw.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow(594 heights over the area)

Monitoring the leaf drop

This is really a common site. In some areas, birch, remaining unaffected maples will have to really perform well to get good fall foliage this year. My hopes for a good foliage season is very low. Not that there won’t be color, or good areas, but in general as a whole, not very high on it. The reds at Dolly Sods, the yellow Birches in Canaan and especially Blackwater Canyon still should be a go.

Very early in the month….this year starting off night and day different vs last year. Last year on September 2nd, I did not get out of the 40s during the daylight hours, before touching 50 after nightfall.

18z 3km Nam

2m temperatures

12z ECMWF meteogram

18z GFS meteogram

SST temp anomalies and 7day change

 

T.S Gordon

18z 3km Nam

Sept 2.                         min.     max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley        56.4      78.8       67.6

Garrett College        60.7      83.6       72.1

Can-Heights             59.7      79.7       69.7

CRN-Canaan            59.5      79.1       69.3

Cabin Mt                  61.0      77.7       69.3

Cabin Mt north       62.1      79.9       71.0

Spruce Knob           60.3       75.7       68.0

Snowshoe               63.5        76.1       69.8

Can-Valley Floor    51.6       81.0       66.3

7Springs                  65.4       79.0       72.2

Mainly clear start, valley fog. Clouds bubbling with daytime heating with some isolated showers.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar plus estimates 9pm-9pm.. to not from 6pm to 9pm last evening I recorded .05 at Bittinger 2nw Valley… I drove through the slight tiny shower along Backbone Mt at 3:20pm and radar estimates show it.

Satellite

A pic of the cloud tops looking SE from The Glades area in Garrett County seeing the tops of the storm in Grant

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Bald Knob at Canaan

Canaan Valley

Bald Knob-Canaan. Trees on top are changing. Partially due to anthracnose and leaf drop is occuring with maple, cherry. There is green unaffected areas as well. I would suspect at the top western side of Cabin Mt to be void of leaves by week 3-4 of September despite the warm pattern.

Canaan Mt. There is slight color. The most noticeable color has begun around the Canaan Mt Bog. Typical of this area. Anthracnose again has affected these maples and likely will cause premature drop in some maples, cherrys, not all… A nice crop of cranberries this year…appears to be the case at most of the bogs.

Olson bog has as well a nice crop of cranberries, little leaf color yet

View from Centennial Park along 219 Backbone Mt, mostly all green foliage dominating. As is typical this early 

Over the past summer, I have been watching the rain amounts at the Olson overlook on Backbone. Curious of the rain gauge siting, I decided to check it out. A few things from the trip left me skeptical of the accuracy of the reported amounts. While I don’t believe they are off by a great deal, they would not be 100% accurate. One, the gauge had a small branch overhead… that can cause splash, and shield some precip from entering, 2- the gauge is not plumb. I did take the time to remove the overhead small branch.

 

Canaan Valley

Plants

Sept 1.                       min.       max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       60.4        75.4      67.9

Garrett College       62.2        81.0      71.6

Can-Heights            61.2        74.1      67.7

CRN-Canaan            59.4       75.7      67.6

Cabin Mt                  61.3       73.4      67.3

Cabin Mt north       61.7      75.0       68.3

Spruce Knob            59.0     70.9       64.9

Snowshoe                 62.4     70.0      66.2

Can-Valley Floor     52.0     78.8      65.4

7Springs                   63.8     76.8      70.3

Dense fog to start in areas that recieved appreciable rain yesterday. Some valley fog elsewhere. This gave way to some sun and clouds then downpours of rain developing towards midday and through the afternoon and evening. Pockets of rain was the nature of it.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates… isolated pockets of heavy rain. Henry Oester near Keysers Ridge in with 1.69 this afternoon and radar estimates of 2.5+ near Little Bear Creek and Rabbit Hollow area, while a short distance away at Bittinger 2nw Valley, I only recorded .05. The heaviest rain fell in pretty steep terrain causing a fast rise on Bear Creek at Friendsville according to the USGS gauge.

 

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

 

Looking around today, and I have not previously looked much at the Red Oaks, vs the noticeable leaf drop, sickly leaves of the maples standing out so much. The red oaks are largely affected with anthracnose as well. 

18z 3km Nam

2m temperatures

2m DewPoints

Pop up shower, downpour, storm threat continues as well.

Aug 31.                      min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley         58.8       76.4      67.6

Garrett College         62.0       80.9      71.4

Can-Heights              59.5       77.1      68.3

CRN-Canaan             57.6       78.2      67.9

Cabin Mt                   60.3       75.7      68.0

Cabin Mt north        61.9       74.8     68.3

Spruce Knob            58.5        72.5    65.5

Snowshoe                 60.6       73.0    66.8

Can-Valley Floor     53.8        80.6    67.2

7Springs                   63.9        76.7    70.3

Ground fog to start, semi dense in some areas. Skies breaking through early afternoon with some downpours developing. A second round late day, and in the same location as the first in a few spots.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

(other temp charts in monthly summary at the bottom)

Radar plus estimates with a few more details . I came in with 1.35″ today. I had .25 with round 1 this afternoon, 1.1 this evening. And .35 last night after 6pm. Total 1.6 since 9pm… Radar estimated .28 this afternoon and 1.1 this evening and 1.58 overall…so very impressed with the accuracy. Nearby, south on Foxtown Rd, it appeared more rain fell and radar estimates at 2″. Mchenry at Garrett College reading .01 today,  and that was dew this morning, but estimates from 9pm till midnight gave the amounts for 24 hour 9pm to 9pm… There was no measurable precip there today. . A sharp cutoff. Interestingly, the afternoon storm and evening storm built in from opposite directions but had the same cutoff zones, and heavy zones.

 

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Videos from the rain…

 

 

August summary

Temps August 2018

Precipitation August 2018

 

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Temps:

Warmest Min 63.4

Coolest Max  65.8

Days of highs in the

80s- 6 (All of 80 or 81°)

70s- 19

60s- 6

Days with lows in the

60s- 9

50s- 19

40s- 3

Precip: 7.6″ on the month

Canaan-CRN

Warmest Max 80.0

Coolest max 66.0

Warmest Min 65.4

Coolest Min 43.0

Days with highs in the

80s-1

70s- 26

60s- 4

Days with mins in the

40s- 2

50s- 19

60s- 10

Precip 4.73

Precipitation….Keep in mind, co-ops(off scasis here) are 7am to 7am recording times.

Chart put together by Dave Lesher at the frost pocket test sites

Year to date

Temps

Precip

 

Aug 30.                     min.     max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       62.3       76.0      69.1

Garrett College       65.3       80.9      73.1

Can-Heights            63.4       76.5      69.9

CRN-Canaan           61.2        78.7      70.0

Cabin Mt                 61.2        75.0      68.1

Cabin Mt north      62.4        75.4      68.9

Spruce Knob          59.9        74.7      67.3

Snowshoe               61.0        73.2      67.1

Can-Valley Floor   62.6        77.7.     70.1

7Springs                  63.6       75.5      69.6

Cloudy early, then a mix of clouds and sun midday, afternoon, back to mainly cloudy with rain afterdark. Drearier, more clouds, some high ground fog, and areas of heavy rain later Wv mts, and Va region of the Alleghenies.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm. At Bittinger 2nw Valley .25 rain from last nights after midnight rain fell. More 9pm tonight that will be included tomorrow.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb flow

The Maples

I had some valuable information passed along to me yesterday about what is going on with the maples. It is also said to be affecting Red Oaks, but I’ve not seen that much locally. Not saying its not affecting them here, just haven’t paid much attention.

Anthracnose, is suppose to be pretty widespread from Pa to Wv currently, and similiar reports of maples doing the same thing in western Va. It stems from our consistent wet damp periods in June, now August.  A little info on Anthracnose

https://wiki.bugwood.org/Aureobasidium_apocryptum_(Anthracnose_on_maple)

I highly suspect this is going to affect areas of typical nice color from the maples in the fall and give a much more bland look to the fall foliage. Its pretty widespread, doesn’t appear to be every maple, and perhaps not every location in the region, although from what I’ve seen. its pretty widespread.

 

Aug 29.                      min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        59.5      81.4     70.4

Garrett College        64.7      83.6     74.1

Can-Heights             65.6      79.5      72.6

CRN-Canaan            63.3       80.0     71.6

Cabin Mt                  63.7       78.4      71.0

Cabin Mt north      64.4        79.7      72.0

Spruce Knob          62.4        77.4      69.9

Snowshoe               64.9        75.0      69.9

Can-Valley Floor    53.2       81.5      67.3

7Springs                  65.6       79.3      72.4

Mainly clear, hazy, some early valley ground fog

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

Lightning off to the west near Mchenry

18z 3km Nam

2m Temperatures

2m Dew Points

Simulated Radar

Aug 28.                       min.       max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        59.1        81.1       70.1

Garrett College        65.1        83.1       74.1

Can-Heights             62.4        79.9       71.2

CRN-Canaan            63.4        79.8       71.6

Cabin Mt                  63.3        79.0        71.1

Cabin Mt north       64.9        79.5       72.2

Spruce Knob            63.0       77.4       70.2

Snowshoe                 65.1       74.5       69.7

Can-Valley Floor     51.6       81.9       66.7

7Springs                   69.8       79.9       74.9

Mainly clear, hazy start, some pockets of valley ground fog. Few pop up clouds today. Warm, muggy. Showers mainly in parts of the southern Allegheny areas.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Smoke areas

18z 3km Nam

2m Temperatures

2m Dew Points

Simulated Radar

Warm and muggy continues, a slight(meaning not much) lowering of the dew points briefly Thursday night into Friday am. That better feeling air looks to hold just north of the region. Will need to watch the showers, storms into Thursday. Overall this pattern has 11-15 days of life as it appears now.

12z ECMWF meteogram

18z GFS meteogram

(keep in mind, this is based off one operational run, precip amounts can vary greatly run to run, 18z likely overdone on the GFS..time will tell)

18z run

 

Long range off a few models….Euro and CFSv2, looking like that 2nd week of September, a more fall like feel, and air mass will encroach on the east. A much welcomed shift vs the mugginess of present.

Modeled temp anomalies

CFSV2

Back to the Maples

Comparing the past few year…the 16′ pic is a few hundred yards up the road from the 17′ pic and todays pic. 2016 was took on the 29th of September, the 2017 pic the 14th of September, and 2018(today). Last year was a early change in areas with the chilly start to September. This area as well where these pics are, is typically a early changeover spot. A wetland area, trees often stressed, thus change earlier as well as nighttime mins are colder.  This year however, and this is not limited to this location, or locations like this(meaning wetland) the maple leaf drop has been very noticeable. Some changed, and fell. Some fell while green. Along this portion, there is still some green, a little color, but a lot of foliage currently down…..

Aug 27.                      min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley        61.8        80.4       71.1

Garrett College        66.9        83.0       74.9

Can-Heights             66.0        77.6       71.8

CRN-Canaan            65.4        78.8       72.1

Cabin Mt                  65.1        77.5       71.3

Cabin Mt north       65.7       79.0        72.3

Spruce Knob           63.7       76.5        70.1

Snowshoe                64.6       74.7        69.6

Can-Valley Floor     57.6       80.6       69.1

7Springs                   68.5       78.1       73.3

Cloudy,foggy, hazy start, some periods of morning sun, few pop up brief showers, afternoon featured clouds and sun with scatterded showers.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Smoke areas

18z 3km Nam

2m Temperatures

2m Dew Points

Heat Index

Simulated Radar

12z ECMWF meteogram

18z GFS meteogram

The ridge in the east looks to hold through the first 10 days of September. Beyond that, CFSV2, the new(just in) Euro weeklies, GFS, all pointing to a Canadian influence on the air mass incoming in the 11-15th range. This is very far out and could be derailed. This far out though,  this would be the next potential of any type of nightime lows in our cold pockets to reach freezing potential.

few pics today

 

 

In the last pic, and a little in the first pic. A fairly common site in at least this part of the region. That is, maples losing their leaves very early. Some turned a little color and fell, some fell while green. We had a very wet summer, except July. Locally(Garrett) July went dry. August returns and it has been back to above normal precip. I am guessing its a stress factor, overleaf abundance early in the leaf season, dry shot, followed by very wet. Some maples in bog, swamp areas typically are early changers, and droppers, this year, some of these have just dropped. As seen in pic 3. That is not an uncommon site in many areas currently. If anyone has any other info about this, feel free to comment. This is the most early maple leaf drop I’ve seen and it may have an effect on the fall color season.

Snow! Not locally but out west it has begun.

A few social media pics.

 

 

Aug 26.                        min.      max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley          51.3       72.5     61.9

Garrett College          55.1       71.5     63.3

Can-Heights               59.5       70.4     64.9

CRN-Canaan              57.0       69.6     63.3

Cabin Mt                   58.1       66.0     62.0

Cabin Mt north        59.2       68.7     63.9

Spruce Knob            55.9       70.3     63.1

Snowshoe                 59.2       67.5     63.2

Can-Valley Floor     52.0        72.1     62.0

7Springs                   63.3        70.3     66.8

Mainly cloud, few brief moments of sun. High ground fog, especially across the Wv high ground.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Snowshoe this afternoon

Canaan from the golf course

Smoke areas

18z 3km Nam

2m Temperatures

Heat Index

Simulated Radar

Aug 25.                    min.      max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley       46.5      69.9     58.2

Garrett College       50.9      72.2      61.5

Can-Heights            55.0       72.9     64.0

CRN-Canaan           52.3       70.2     61.3

Cabin Mt                  52.0       67.5     59.7

Cabin Mt north       52.9       72.0     62.4

Spruce Knob           50.9       66.6     58.7

Snowshoe                 52.7      67.6     60.2

Can-Valley Floor     41.2       73.4     57.3

7Springs                   57.5       68.8    63.2

Mainly cloudy, a little sun, widely scattered showers, few and very far between in the afternoon.

Temp profile this afternoon

Min at The Glades

Radar plus estimates(MINOR)

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Smoke areas

 

Finzel Swamp Garrett County Md 8/25/18

https://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/northamerica/unitedstates/maryland_dc/placesweprotect/finzel-swamp.xml

Tamarack, Larch- Finzel Swamp Garrett County Md 8/25/18

18z GFS

2m Temperatures next 10 days

6 hour precip next 10 days

18z GFS meteogram

12z ECMWF meteogram