Sept 13.                     min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       65.0      74.6      69.8

Garrett College       65.9      76.7      71.3

Can-Heights            63.7       74.4     69.1

CRN-Canaan           63.3       76.5      69.9

Cabin Mt.                60.8       71.2      66.0

Cabin Mt north      61.5       71.2     66.3

Spruce Knob station down

Snowshoe               60.3        70.2     65.2

Can-Valley Floor    64.9       76.6      70.7

7Springs                  64.5       73.6      69.1

Foggy, drizzle to start, giving way to some sun and clouds mixed, with some light rain by nightfall. There was a period of very light run under partly cloudy skies.  Se flow today, thanks to high north, and Florence south

Temp profile this afternoon, downsloping side on the western side heating up today with the Se flow

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm , trace Bittinger 2nw Valley

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Florence

Florence remnants look to impact our area Sunday nighy/Monday am timeframe through early Wednesday possibly. Timing will yet need tweaked. Rainfall amounts are looking to be in the 1-3″ range, with up to 4″ in areas.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs(totals through Florence remnants, as is the GFS)

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

12z UKMET 6 hourly precip

Spaghetti Charts

And that was Florence, now before and after. A continuous moist east flow, with the shower risk over the next few days. Little temperature flucuation from nighttime lows, and daytime highs. With the east flow, west side of the mountains remaining warmer, as seen here on the 3km nam

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Further out, weeklies finally showing a breakdown of the ridge and brings more fall like air week 3-4. Models originally had this occuring mid month.

next 46 days, weeklies do see our first flakes, in late week 2-week 3 Oct peiod. Take that with a grain of salt, and 3 tablespoons more.

Tomorrow night, I plan to show some comparisons of current foliage vs last year, with month to date temps. Much colder Sept last year, with leaves much further along. Also, this year is influenced by anthracnose in areas, which will hinder colors in areas.

Sept 12.                      min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        60.1       67.5       63.8

Garrett College        60.5       70.3      65.4

Can-Heights             60.0       73.3      66.7

CRN-Canaan            60.0        74.3     67.1

Cabin Mt                  59.2        70.3    64.7

Cabin Mt north       57.7       71.4    64.5

Spruce Knob            58.8       67.5    63.1

Snowshoe                 62.1       70.3    66.2

Can-Valley Floor      60.1      76.5    68.3

7Springs                    58.6      65.1    61.8

Fog, few light showers, drizzle, se flow. North central Garrett held low clouds, fog the entire day, some breaks late elsewhere it appeared

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm , .05 at Bittinger 2nw Valley

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

FLORENCE

The track from last night holds fairly well tonight, with the exception of another slight south trend. The broad moist east flow will provide the opportunity for showers over the next few days, mainly Friday and Saturday. Our significant rain potential comes early to mid next week. Tweaks in timing and amounts remain. As of now it looks like a 1-3″ rain event with areas up to 4″. Now, the 12z Euro turned north a tad earlier, tad juicier and puts out 2-4″ amounts. Should that occur, flooding of more significance would occur. Right now going with 1-3″ which would cause some flooding with waterways already high.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

12z UKmet

NHC 8PM UPDATE

Spaghetti Charts

Breakdown of the precip by the NWS, really like their thoughts on this

Sept 11.                    min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       57.0        64.5       60.7

Garrett College      56.8        65.4       61.1

Can-Heights            56.3       67.1       61.7

CRN-Canaan           56.5      69.6       63.1

Cabin Mt                 56.5      65.5       61.0

Cabin Mt north     55.6       62.8      59.2

Spruce Knob          57.9      63.5      60.7

Snowshoe               59.2      67.1     63.2

Can-Valley Floor   58.5      73.0*    65.7

7Springs                 54.2      60.0      57.1

Cloudy, some fog, drizzle and showers at times, but no precip quite often.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm. Picked up .15 at Bittinger 2nw Valley

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

FLORENCE UPDATE

This afternoon, models came much more into agreeance. Whether this holds, remains to be seen obviously. The ridge is strong, and it appears this will shift the storm more west into the Carolinas, inland and up west of the mts. Well, what does that mean. It means not much rain in our area until early next week. For the Carolinas, it means they take a big wallop of the catastrophic level late Thursday night, through Saturday. This latest track(my gut thinks this holds) spares the words like, catastrophic, serious, in our area. Now, we still look to get rains as the remnants lift north. This looks like the type that can cause already high waterways to come out of their banks in spots, but not in a major way and not in anyway more than we have seen already. Areas north that saw the flooding this past weekend, I don’t currently see a repeat of that.  Rainfall amounts are looking to be 1-3″, isolated higher, exception vs rule, if, and I stress IF things remain on this course. A slower movement, a quicker lift north could again alter that and increase these totals.

Here is a look at Florence today

Florence stats and NHC projection cone(notice the more southward turn in their cone)

The 12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs and amounts. Notice these amounts are through mid next week, because the remants pass Mon-Wed timeframe(precip totals also include some precip prior to the remnants, same as the GFS)

Lets look at the 12z ECMWF ensemble members on Low locations, thats a lot of agreement.

The 18z GFS, notice the similarity now to the 12z ECMWF, and amounts off the model.

The 12z UKmet

Spaghetti Charts, that south trend, and the west path, theme of today and given the ridge north, seems legit.

A closer look in as the 18z 3km nam comes into range of landfall. 10m winds(not gust, gust will be higher at landfall)

Sept 10.                     min.      max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley         52.0      60.6     56.3

Garrett College        52.1      65.8      58.9

Can-Heights             51.6       69.5     60.5

CRN-Heights             53.5      68.5     61.0

Cabin Mt                   49.1      65.1     57.1

Cabin Mt north       49.5      69.1      59.3

Spruce Knob            49.3      60.6      54.9

Snowshoe                 54.1      63.1      58.6

Can-Valley Floor     53.2      74.7      63.9

7Springs                  50.1       60.5      55.3

Cloudy, foggy. se breeze, few showers, drizzle at times. North central Garrett and points NE remained drearier and cooler vs elsewhere. High ground here remaining in the 50s

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm.  At Bittinger 2nw Valley, .8 from 2:30pm yesterday through 7am today, with .1 more today for .9 total

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

High water is receeding, some locations down river cresting today. While upstream, headwater areas falling back but still high. Water coming out of the ground in lots of places water typically doesn’t. Chilly SE flow, fog all day in spots… Some videos to fit those descriptions…

SE flow, typical cooler areas with the setup

On the models…

Nothing exciting near term, so eyes to Florence. Florence strengthening to a Cat 4 in the Atlantic and has a target of the Carolinas. That’s about all that is known. Models are extremely varied, There is NO forecast or model this far out that will give you an exact rain amount, a exact path, or timing of a landfall even. The ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, CMC, NAM(to 84hrs) are all varied. The GFS holds Florence just off the coast and has it do a loop before coming onshore and inland late weekend, early next week and drops lighter rains. 1-2″ The ECMWF, that 12z run is a big time player for us. If this plays out, 5-10″+ is possible in parts of the region. So, everytime you see a rainfall map, hear amounts, hear timing, take that with a grain of salt. The NHC uses those wide cones of track for a reason. That’s the cone of uncertainty. Say it takes on the southern route of that cone, or stalls east, our impact may be small and it may stay dry until late weekend or early next week.  That is one scenario.

Here is the 12z ECMWF run, with rainfall totals…. this is towards the extreme scenario

The 18z GFS, watching the Nam at 84 hours looking similiar, to me, makes this scenario one that can’t be ruled out. GFS is not very impactful in this scenario to our area with 1-2″ maxes

The 12z UKMET, similar to the ECMWF

Look at spaghetti charts

 

Bottom line sitting here Monday evening, a storm of this size is constantly evolving, models are fed new data every run, and these storms have a HUGE degree of uncertainty and things unforeseen each and everytime. If someone says how much will rain….it is only answered with possibilities, scenarios at this point. As the models are fed new data, we will see some convergence as we get closer. DO NOT let your gaurd down. The extreme risk is still on the table, and the scenario of little impact exist also.

Florence at nightfall

Sept 9                       min.     max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley        48.7      54.0    51.3

Garrett College        48.9      54.0    51.4

Can-Heights             46.4      54.5    50.4

CRN-Canaan            48.5      57.0     52.8

Cabin Mt                  44.4      49.8     47.1

Cabin Mt north       44.2      49.8     47.0

Spruce Knob           45.0      50.5     47.8

Snowshoe                54.0      57.7     55.8

Can-Valley Floor    48.6      55.8     52.2

7Springs                  46.7      52.6     49.7

Rain, some fog, east wind, flooding.

Temp profile this afternoon/w windchills

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm . Bittinger 2nw Valley I recorded 3.6″ more at the 2:30 gauge dump. 4.4″ event total.. Next check 7am. Radar estimates appear to be low in many instances.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb 500mb height anomalies and flow

Cassleman River at Grantsville coming in at its 4th highest reading in the 71 year History of the gauge….it peaked out at over 4500cfs…

Tributaries to the Cassleman

Muddy Creek Falls

 

Pics by Mike Petenbrink shared on Social media took today in Meyersdale Pa, down river on the Cassleman from Grantsville.

Not to go unmentioned, Wv high ground holding 40s, northern Sods had mid 30s windchills this morning….rainfall amounts have varied significantly from northern Cabin to Bald Knob

On the models

short term, temps creep up over the next few days to more seasonal levels. and the risk of heavy pockets of rain remain through Monday. Areas of 1-2″ additional rainfall exist

18z 3km Nam

2m temperatures

Simulated Radar

Further out, the attention goes to Florence. Big questions remain. The risk of this storm moving inland and stalling for 2-3 days does exist. The 12z ECMWF shows that scenario. That is a worst case scenario should this occur. How far west does the moisture get. If, and I say this cautiously, not to hype. But, if you are in a low lying area, flood prone, keep this in the front of your mind this week, stay up to date with the latest info…this would have destructive, to catastrophic flood potential that could rival the Wv floods of 85′ should it come inland.  I don’t think that is what will happen, but it can not be ruled out. With luck it will stall well east and be picked up by a front and lifted off to the north and our area goes unaffected.  What scenario occurs has MAJOR implications. That said, here is the 12z ECMWF and it brings it inland and hammers Va, with significant rains back to the Alleghenies

The GFS is the scenario that leaves us largely unaffected.

The Beast this morning

Spaghetti Charts for Florence

Sept 8.                      min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       50.2       65.3      57.7

Garrett College      51.0       65.9      58.4

Can-Heights            51.1       64.6      57.8

CRN-Canaan           52.3        65.2     58.1

Cabin Mt                 48.4        63.3     55.8

Cabin Mt north      48.6       62.2    55.4

Spruce Knob           48.6      63.1     55.8

Snowshoe               55.6       73.8     64.7

Can-Valley Floor   52.7       66.6    59.6

7Springs                  46.9      64.1    55.5

Cloudy, high ground fog, drizzle, rain eastern slopes in the morning..Easterly moist flow. Morning high temps dropping through the day.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 10pm-10pm  .8 at Bittinger 2nw Valley since Thursday night

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

On the models

18z 3km Nam

2m temperatures

Wind Chills(30s Wv High Ground)

Rainfall through Monday off the 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF

 

Looking ahead, eyes still on Florence and where it will go late week.  The big worry is, does it move inland and stall? Does it stay near the coast and not a impact to the mts, does it stay just offshore… Something to watch during the week.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240 hours

10 day totals(including this rain event now)

18z GFS precip type next 384 hrs

Precip totals next 240 hrs(including current event)

Spaghetti Charts for Florence off the ECMWF, GFS

 

Sept 7.                     min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       57.0     76.1    66.5

Garrett College       59.4     81.2    70.3

Can-Heights            61.3     75.9     68.6

CRN-Canaan            58.5    76.5     67.5

Cabin Mt.                 60.1     76.1    68.1

Cabin Mt north       61.0     75.7    68.3

Spruce Knob           59.0      72.5    65.7

Snowshoe                62.1      71.2    66.6

Can-Valley Floor     52.9     78.8    65.8

7Springs                   64.1     75.8    69.9

Mostly cloudy a.m..breaking for sun, to afternoon showers….heavier storms afternoon as well. Rainfall amounts vary greatly.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm   .1 with evening burst at Bittinger 2nw Valley by 6pm , next recording will be Saturday, away tomorrow

(CRN .15, Cabin Mt .12, Cabin Mt north 1.9, Spruce Knob .45, Snowshoe 2.54, 7Springs .04)

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Storm in Fulton County Pa(fast motion capture)

Latest on the models

Rain pushing in this weekend. The heaviest axis looks to focus more towards the northern Alleghenies(Closer to the mason-dixon) and points NW.  Garrett County 1.5-3″ amounts through Monday, Somerset 2-4″ amounts through Monday, Tucker County 1-2″ amounts through Monday and further south .75-1.5″ amounts through Monday. All locations can see isolated higher amounts.

Temperatures will be the warmest early Saturday with temps creeping backwards as the day wears on. Temps falling into and through the 50s. Some of the eastern ridges(Savage Mt, Dans Mt, Allegheny Front) should fall into the upper 40s early overnight Saturday. This will be accompanied by strong winds, wet conditions and real feel temps in the upper 30s Saturday night/Sunday a.m. Hikers and campers be prepared and advised to dress appropriately! Sunday remains chilly with minimal temperature fluctuation. A major change in the recent air mass temps.

18z 3km Nam

2m temperatures

windchills

Rainfall from 12z ECMWF, 18z GFS, and WFOs(weather forecast offices)

 

Looking further ahead, eyes  immediately will turn to Florence in the Atlantic. Its a big unknown, but models have shown some potential tracks, landfalls, impacts. This could be a very big rain producer late next week “IF” it comes into the area. A week out on a storm like this is a long time and gives a long time to watch trends. If by Monday/Tuesday model trends hold or look more likely to be a major impact to the area, take proper precautions. Just a heads up to think about. With any luck, it will stay out to sea and a complete miss.

Here are the latest 12z ECMWF run and 18z GFS

Sept 6.                    min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley     58.8        82.1      70.4

Garrett College     63.4        82.6      73.0

Can-Heights          61.5        79.4      70.4

CRN-Canaan         59.2        80.6      69.9

Cabin Mt.               63.1       80.2      71.6

Cabin Mt north     64.4      82.0       73.2

Spruce Knob         60.8      75.4       68.1

Snowshoe              64.0      76.1       70.1

Can-Valley Floor  53.2       82.9      68.0

7Springs                66.7       77.2      71.9

Partly cloudy start, valley fog, afternoons showers, storms in spots.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm, .1 Bittinger 2nw Valley through 3pm reading, remainder will go on tomorrows amount.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics, first- sunset off Rt 40 Elementary cam, second- Vernon Patterson pic from Dolly Sods at Bear Rocks. Reds slowly changing. Definetly will be later than last year. Would lean week 3 to have good reds and peak week 4. (If I were to guess. …and I guess I just did)

Sept 5.                        min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        58.3        81.7      70.0

Garrett College        61.1        87.1      74.1

Can-Heights             63.6        81.6      72.6

CRN-Canaan            61.0        82.0      71.5

Cabin Mt                   64.4        78.1     71.2

Cabin Mt north        65.8      81.5      73.6

Spruce Knob            63.5        76.3     69.9

Snowshoe                 65.7        77.4     71.6

Can-Valley Floor     53.9        83.8      68.8

7Springs                    71.1       82.7      76.9

Mainly clear start once again, valley fog. Really a repeat daily pattern. Clouds building and some popup showers, storms later in the afternoon.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

 

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm.  .05 Bittinger 2nw Valley

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

 

 

 

On the models….

18z GFS 6HR Precip

18z GFS Temps/Flow

18z GFS temps

18z GFS ensemble mean precip into Tuesday

12z ECMWF 6hr precipitation

12z ECMWF temps next 10

12z ECMWF ensemble mean precip

WPC Precipitation Map

So….as of right now, focal point locally for the greatest potential rain looks 50-65 miles either side of the Mason/Dixon line. Those amounts looking to be in the 1.5 – 3″ amounts with locally higher amounts. Further south, .5 to 1.5 amounts look possible.  Much cooler weather associated with the rain event. The GFS, ECMWF still are not conclusive on precip on Saturday. Which will affect temps as well.  Further out, about 8 days, a east coast system needs watched.

Continue to monitor the latest rainfall potential as some flooding potential does exist in the heaviest axis zone.

Sept 4.                         min.     max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley         57.4       81.7      69.5

Garrett College         60.9       85.1      73.0

Can-Heights              61.2       81.2      71.2

CRN-Canaan              57.6      82.1      69.8

Cabin Mt                    65.8      78.8      72.3

Cabin Mt north        67.6       79.7      73.6

Spruce Knob            62.1       76.3      69.2

Snowshoe                 67.1       77.2      72.1

Can-Valley Floor     53.8       83.5      68.6

7Springs                   72.6       84.8      78.7

Mainly clear start, valley fog again….clouds bubbling mid morning, showers, thunderstorms popping up midday.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Evening storm. Viewable from Mchenry area looking west.. Storm in Preston County. Radar echo tops showing 40k feet with the precip tops.

Monitoring the trees

Continuing watching the premature foliage drop. Especially of the maples in areas. Wild cherry looking poor as well.

Ramp seeds maturing

Few pics today

Sandhill cranes return

Models for the weekend

Going to for today resist posting rainfall amounts. Flooding potential does exist for this weekend. While there is no lock on where the boundary and rain goes, there is a strong leaning of the heavy rains pushing across the Alleghenies. Timing, track of this rain threat does need watched. For now, I will post the modeled temps off the models for the weekend, as I do that, Saturday will be determined by how fast the rain moves in. If it arrives early, temps holding 55-62, later temps 62-68, Sunday looks wet. Temps holding 52-60 as it looks now.  Temps off the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS

Having said that, I will post the operational runs, with the ensemble mean precip. With the GFS being the most significant at this point.  Stay monitored to this, as it has “potential” to cause significant flooding, especially due to the already wet ground. Here we go, the 18z GFS op

The ensemble mean precip(using this as the op run seems a bit far fetched)..

The 12z ECMWF op run, still significant, but very manageable.

The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean precip….. So all in all, we need to watch to see how this pans out. Is it a 1′-2″ rain or a 3-5″ rain. 

This year, September off to the hot start, last year the exact opposite

NHC evening tropical update