July 26.                       min.      max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley        58.1       77.6       67.8

Garrett College        61.0       78.4      69.7

Can-Heights            59.5        74.2      66.8

CRN-Canaan           57.6        74.1      65.8

Cabin Mt                 57.7        71.6      64.6

Cabin Mt north      58.6        72.7     65.6

Spruce Knob          56.5        70.5     63.5

Snowshoe               58.8        70.2     64.5

Can-Valley Floor    48.2        77.0     62.6

7Springs                  61.5        75.0     68.2

Dreary looking start, some fog, low clouds and that then burnt off for a mix of clouds and sun of varying amounts from late morning, through evening with the sunny side of things increasing as the day went by.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-27-08-30-05

Satellite this afternoon

Radar, mostly last evening in where it did rain, with 24 hour estimates running back to 7pm 7/25

Screenshot_20180726-195534

Flow

surface features and 500mb height anomalies

500mb flow

SST(Sea Surface Temperature) anomalies and 7 day change

Off The Models

Meteogram off the 12z ECMWF for Garrett County

K2G4_2018072612_dx_240

12Z ECMWF

3 hourly precip

Total Precipitation

18z GFS

6 hourly precipitation

Total Precipitation

18Z 3km Nam

2m Temperatures

2m Dew Points

Simulated Radar

Total Precipitation

10:30pm reality, model comparison

The new 0z 3km Nam run is in. So thats the go to choice. The formula I’v been watching, to get a good feel for what the cold frost pockets can achieve is

1- 10m wind off the 3km Nam calm. In this case, we can check that off. At least for the valley spots. While 3km is high res, its still not tight enough to pinpoint details, but gives great hints.

hires_uv10m_dir_wv_4

2- Cloud cover, are we seeing clear skies. The 3km nam does very well at this. In this case, checked this off. hires_tcloud_wv_4

3- 2m Dewpoints. Pretty big component. Again, 3km nam is detailed, but not tight enough for minute details. The observations and comparisons has led to the conclusion on many many occasions, that, with a dry air mass incoming, or in place, calm winds, clear skies, subtract 4-8° from the 3km nam modeled dewpoint and that is generally where the 2m temp comes in at in the cold pockets. Placement of the modeled 2m Dewpoints is not important. If conditions above(1&2) check off the list. Ex. If the models lowest dewpoint is in Elkins at 45 and Canaan reads 55 on the model,  Canaans frost pocket actual dewpoint, air temp, if conditions(calm, clear)of 1 and 2 are equal to Elkins, (on the model) reality should run 38-42° 2m air temp.  In the case below off tonights 0z 3km nam, 56.2° dewpoint is the min at the example time. All in all for this example, lowest dewpoints are in the ballpark area of the conversation, despite it doesn’t have to be. hires_dew2m_wv_4

4- While in cases of east flows, CAD events, even daytime maxes with a breeze I love the 3km nam, (best there is bar none, beats HRRR easily) it is not good at hitting cold pockets. Again, not in tight enough for small details even at 3km, but I would think as in the current case, and many other times observed, it should do better. With 0 wind, 56° dewpoint, clear skies, why is it not modeling pockets of cooler temps? 3km should be enough to do that. This aspect of the model is one of its problems on 2m temps. Its not always great at convective storms and will falsely on the model cool locations that do not occur. That’s another downfall.  It is though great for frontal timing however. Currently, thumbs down for tonights example on temps. Way to warm. hires_t2m_wv_4

Reality views. While the valley frost pocket has no anemometer, its evident conditions are calm, while at 4000′ a 10mph exist. The model, looks decent. At 4000 its 63°, not bad on the model, 51° in the colder valley area, no clue on the model, except using the 1,2,3 formula from observations of the model to reality.

Reality at a little past 10:30pm

(To note, Hrrr last night showed clear skies through daybreak, 3km nam showed increasing cloud cover and temps creeping up, 3km Nam did well.)

July 25.                    min.       max.         avg

Bitt 2nw valley      59.5       72.4         65.9

Garrett College      61.8       71.7         66.7

Can-Heights           60.9       69.8         65.4

CRN-Canaan          61.4       69.8         65.6

Cabin Mt                58.3        65.7        62.0

Cabin Mt north     61.0        68.0        64.5

Spruce Knob         57.6        65.3        61.4

Snowshoe              58.6        66.9        62.8

Can-Valley Floor   56.7       71.4        64.0

7Springs                 62.5        71.4       66.9

Cloudy, foggy, showers today, very late peaks of sun in spots…..once again, the rain free zone thats been mainly dry all week, recieved very little today. Again a cloudy, breezy night holding temps up.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-26-09-19-29

 

Radar with estimates…picked up .2 today at Bittinger 2nw Valley. Most all week

Screenshot_20180725-195033.jpg

Satellite

Flow

500mb flow

Night Owl(poor quality)

 

 

 

Precip past several days. This is listed as 7 day totals, but most of this since Saturday…Models from Sunday, models really from last week were VERY poor in the Alleghenies. Rainfall never materialized as it did east and west. Last weekend it looked like the mts would miss out. By all available data, it looked for certain appreciable rain amounts of 1-3″ would occur Tue-Thur. It did not occur. Below in pic one is observed, then pic 2 and 3 were model putouts at 12z in the 22nd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

July 24.                   min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley      65.7       73.3       69.5

Garrett College      65.6       75.8      70.7

Can-Heights           63.2       69.7      66.4

CRN-Canaan          64.2       71.3      67.7

Cabin Mt                61.0       67.1      64.0

Cabin Mt north     61.7      66.4       64.0

Spruce Knob         59.9       65.7       62.8

Snowshoe              60.4       70.2       65.3

Can-Valley Floor  63.1       72.9       68.0

7Springs                64.5        70.8      67.7

Cloudy, high ground fog at times, again the eastern ridges in that more than the central to western Alleghenies. Breezy all night, into the day and that once again held overnight lows up. Minimal swings between mins and maxes in a pattern like this. Scattered showers but once again on repeat, the most rain has stayed east..

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-25-14-00-53

 

 

Radar & 24hr radar estimates through 7pm

Screenshot_20180724-193944

Satellite this morning and afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Rain along Savage Mt, dry just west

 

July 23.                  min.         max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley      65.2        73.8     69.5

Garrett College      65.2        76.5      70.8

Can-Heights           61.5        73.9      67.7

CRN-Canaan          63.1        74.2      68.6

Cabin Mt                59.7        68.5      64.1

Cabin Mt north    60.4        70.3      65.3

Spruce Knob        58.8         68.5     63.6

Snowshoe             58.8         65.7     62.2

Can-Valley Floor 62.6         77.2     69.9

7Springs               62.8         72.5     67.7

Overcast, fog on the eastern ridges. Some scattered light showers. Main rain again east. Flooding well east. Late day skies broke a little. SE flow continues. Winds held up overnight into the a.m preventing much of a temp dropoff last night.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-24-20-17-36

 

Radar with estimates and the before mentioned flooding. Pic from Hershey park Pa

 

 

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies

 

 

500mb flow

Fog rollling back across eastern ridges from Roaring plains on north, as North Fork cam remained fog free at 8:50pm…..GCC windchart illustrating the SE winds today.

 

Screenshot_20180723-211336.jpg

July 22.                       min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley         56.3        70.6      63.4

Garrett College        57.2         73.1      65.1

Can-Heights             54.1         68.9      61.5

CRN-Canaan           55.5           69.8     62.7

Cabin Mt.                52.3           65.1     58.7

Cabin Mt north     52.7           66.7     59.7

Spruce Knob         52.5           63.0     57.7

Snowshoe              56.3           64.4     60.3

Can-Valley Floor   54.3           71.6    62.9

7Springs                 54.8           69.4    62.1

Mostly sunny start for the first hour of the day., pockets of valley fog…clouds quickly building. Overcast, dimmed sun, southeast breeze with a few isolated pockets of showers, some fog building on the eastern Alleghenies in the mid to late afternoon

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-23-08-12-33

 

 

Radar with 24 hour precip estimates

Screenshot_20180722-214348

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies

 

Pics today…some of those early changing leaves, mainly due to stress in area they are located.

Glade Run at Bittinger 2nw Valley water temp 58.5, tributary at swamp on the mountain at 61.5 after traversing through open sunny conditions.

 

2018-07-22-18-43-07

Pic by Bryan Lemasters at Dolly Sods this morningFB_IMG_1532517174184

Rainfall on the month in the area of the videos, pics above has been below normal, as some nearby areas have been above. The isolated nature of the heavy rains last weekend contributing to that.. The haves and have nots. Heavy rain this weekend passing east.

July to date

 

Upcoming this week off the 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS. Brunt of which looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday.

 

July 21.                      min.        max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       58.5        69.0     63.7

Garrett College        59.1       70.2      64.6

Can-Heights.            56.2        70.3      63.2

CRN-Canaan

Cabin Mt                53.8         66.6      60.2

Cabin Mt north    54.7         67.3      61.0

Spruce Knob         52.9         64.6      58.7

Snowshoe             56.5          66.7     61.6

Can-Valley Floor  57.4         74.5     65.9

7Springs                55.5          67.3    61.4

Eastern Mts cloudy, some fog to start that carried through the day.. Elsewhere intervals of cloudy periods, some sunny breaks through mid afternoon. Then high ground fog, very isolated light showers ruled from the evening on. East flow ruled the day.

Temp profile this afternoon, with 24 hour temp change2018-07-22-08-58-47

Satellite this afternoon

Radar with radar estimated 24 hour precip through 7pm

Screenshot_20180721-191013

Water Vapor loops this afternoon

Flow 7/21/18

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies

 

500mb flow

 

Savage Mt morning…typically one of the foggier spots in this type of setup..built in thicker late day.

Pics by Jeremy Cutlip this afternoon in Edray looking north

 

 

Upcoming week off the 12z ECMWF

Cuurent SST anomalies and 7 day change. Circled, 3 key areas to watch for winter hints. Uncircled but also important, dateline 30-40N cool pool. The warm anomaly there, modiki nino look with cooler waters southeast seaboard vs PNW. That favors a western ridge, eastern trough as the predominant pattern. It also can initially lead to a fast west to east flow early season that inhibits cold surges, but when they come, they come full steam ahead. This is July however, and these features will shift, adjust. How they do, will affect the pattern setup.

July 20.                      min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       47.5       76.7     62.1

Garrett College      57.5        77.9     67.7

Can-Heights          57.4         74.1     65.8

CRN-Canaan          53.7        75.4     64.5

Cabin Mt               56.1         70.5     63.3

Cabin Mt north    56.7        74.5     65.6

Spruce Knob        55.0         66.9     60.9

Snowshoe             56.8         68.5     62.7

Can-Valley Floor  47.5         78.4     62.9

7Springs                60.4         73.7     67.1

Mainly clear to start and a mix of clouds and sun today with the mix leaning to more cloud cover later in parts of the area, especially Wv mts.  …SE winds dominating, especially afternoon on

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-21-15-25-18

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomaly today

 

 

July 19.                      min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       43.8        74.0     58.9

Garrett College       46.8        77.9     62.3

Can-Heights            46.3        74.4     60.3

CRN-Canaan          43.9         73.8     58.8

Cabin Mt.               52.2         69.8     61.0

Cabin Mt north    54.6         72.5     63.5

Spruce Knob         47.8        68.0     57.9

Snowshoe              53.8        70.9     62.3

Can-Valley Floor   37.5        76.4    56.9

7Springs                 60.7         73.7   67.2

The Glades             35.1

Red Run Bog          36.9

Mostly clear start, valley fog…some high clouds, in the mix through the daytime

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-21-15-24-20

 

2018-07-21-15-19-43Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies

 

 

The Glades, 4 foot sensor height exposed. Sensor heavily dewed over and below 36° for a lengthy enough period to suggest sensor temp should have matched air temp pretty close2018-07-19-06-17-21

Red Run Bog2018-07-20-21-42-58

Canaan temp profile, actual min at 37.5, the greatest swing to graphic with a realtime image occured with valley at 38.82018-07-19-22-44-52

July 18.                      min.       max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley         49.0       71.3      60.1

Garrett College        53.2        73.7      63.4

Can-Heights             50.9         69.9     60.4

CRN-Canaan           48.1          68.6     58.4

Cabin Mt                 50.0          67.6     58.8

Cabin Mt north      52.5     68est    60.2est

Spruce Knob          47.8        66.2      57.0

Snowshoe              53.8         64.4      59.1

Can-Valley Floor   39.9        72.5      56.2

7Springs                 54.7        71.4      63.1

The Glades             39.8

Clear chilly start, light breeze in spots held temps up, calm areas chilled off….some pop up clouds during the day.

Temp profile this afternoon, with dewpoints2018-07-19-09-07-32

Satellite

Flow

 

July 17.                       min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       55.9        76.0       65.9

Garrett College      62.3         79.7      71.0

Can-Heights            59.9        72.6      66.2

CRN-Canaan           57.2        75.1      66.1

Cabin Mt                 56.7         69.1     62.9

Cabin Mt north     58.6         71.2      64.9

Spruce Knob          57.2        69.4       63.3

Snowshoe.              58.6        68.7       63.6

Can-Valley Floor   56.1       76.6        66.3

7Springs                 60.5        76.6       68.6

Cloudy, scattered showers, some midday high elevation fog, and skies breaking, dew points lowering, nw breezes picking up late day

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-18-15-31-43

 

Radar

Radar estimatesScreenshot_20180717-205205

Satellite

Flow