Doing a quick post showing the various model changes since yesterday morning on the “potential” moisture headed in to the area this coming week. The primary focus looks to be Tuesday in to Wednesday.
Let’s look at the 0z ECMWF (Euro)
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0z Euro rainfall through Wednesday evening
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Through next Sunday morning
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6z GFS
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6z Gfs through Wednesday evening
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6z Gfs through next Sunday morning
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0z Canadian
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0z Canadian through Wednesday evening
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0z Canadian through next Sunday morning
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WPC outlook through Wednesday evening
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Blended Model through Wednesday evening
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6z Nam Wednesday afternoon
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6z RGEM short range Canadian
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0z Euro AI
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0z Euro Ensemble Mean through Wednesday evening
Lots of variation from very little to 2 inches in the individual members
The month of September is almost halfway in to the books, with very little precipitation month to date over much of the Alleghenies. The month has been dominated by high pressure with blue skies, and dry air. A very comfortable and at times very cool first half of September. The coolest front half of September since 2017.
Rainfall Month To Date Below
Many areas seeing under a tenth of a inch over the first 2 weeks. On September 1st, there was that ending swath that continued after the late August rains that crossed parts of WV. Spruce Knob actually picked up 1.41″ on September 1st. After that, that’s been basically it, outside of the brief line ahead of the frontal passage last weekend.
September Precip Departures below
For most, the departure is nearly equal to what the average precip month to date would be. That said, and it’s not stressed enough. Averages are a culmination of extremes in many instances.
This on the heels of what was a average August, just a bit above, and a bit below across the Alleghenies, with significantly more rainfall east, and much less west.
August Precip Accumulation Below
August Precip Departures Below
In August some areas east ran +5-8″ above average with over a foot of rainfall on the month. That was a huge turn around for areas east. The Drought Monitor never reflected that enough in areas east.
The experimental short term drought indicator shows that a bit better
The USDM(US Drought Monitor ) As Of September 10, 2024
MARYLAND
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Drought Conditions Since 2020, indicating the driest conditions since the period began.
Reconstruction Long Term since 1895 puts in to perspective some of the significant drought periods of prior years. In the grand scheme, drought is not increasing. We’ve seen less extremes in terms of drought. Often when we have an extreme event, the mindset is always, this is the worst ever. The media is partially to blame for that mindset.
WEST VIRGINIA
Drought Conditions Across The State Since 2020(through September 10)
Reconstruction Long Term Drought Since 1895
PENNSYLVANIA
VIRGINIA
Dry summer, but not an extremely dry year to date. Summer is the the time that drought can most rapidly advance. Long days, higher heat, higher evapotranspiration. A rapid drought developed and has continued. At times some temporary relaxation, and in the last 2 weeks, even with cooler temps, shorter days, a bit of a worsening in conditions.
Stream conditions are extremely low across the area. The August rains in the Alleghenies only caused brief stream rises as much of that rain soaked in and in the instances of the downpours, ran off.
one example of many-Blackwater at Davis. 5.80 is not the lowest flow for the date.
Year to date precip numbers for 2024 in many instances are near or ahead of 2023.
Bittinger 2NW Valley Year to Date
Jan 1 to Sept 14:
2024 39.34
2023 37.12
Canaan Heights
Jan 1 to Sept 14
2024 41.11
2023 38.91
The summer time is where departures and drought onset kicked in
June through August
GARRETT COUNTY
Ranked as the 11th driest in 130 years
Year to date- ranked as the 40th wettest.
summer precip trends.
West Virginia- as a whole ranked 5th driest in 130 years
For the year(through August) that drops significantly to the 37th driest
Tucker County summer precip trend. Even with the last few dry summers, the overall decade trend is slightly up
In summary, a very dry summer, with rapid drought onset and continuation. With moments of relaxation. A significant reprieve to areas east in August. Since September 1, dryness has worsened area wide.
So, any hopes?
A Iow pressure developing off the Carolina Coast needs watching for Tuesday-Friday time period with the main period of watch Tuesday P.M to Wednesday P.M.
This is a very difficult feature for modeling to nail down. Over the coming couple of days models will have run to run variations. Regardless of where it goes. Some areas will miss out.
Lets look at the models
0z ECMWF (Euro)
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Through next Friday the 0z Euro Precip
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0z GFS
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Through next Friday 0z GFS precip
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Now there is some agreement there. How about the Canadian
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3 for 3
But look at the Euro Ensemble members
Lots of hits, but also lots of misses, stressing the uncertainty. There is potential, by no means a lock to see much needed rainfall. By no means a drought buster, but we can recover more rapidly from drought as we move deeper in to the season.
The GFS ensemble members
Temperatures next 10 days off modeling. The WPC in general has a high probability of above normal temps. However, with a continued east flow, at times potential moisture , our daytime maxes should be held in check, with a much less night time temp drop. Clouds, moisture = stable temps. Not a lot of night time/daytime diurnal variation
10 day anomaly off the Euro;
10 day anomaly off the GFS
Again that’s a likelihood of more of a daytime departure below average than overnights. Which is the opposite of the first half of the month.
Through September 12th.
The coldest average minimum temperature station in the eastern U.S
Canaan Valley Refuge 32.7°
The Glades 35.5(unofficial)
Mt Washington 36.5
Let’s look at the coolest September start since 2017
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Back in 2017, the second half of the month got much milder, but not before allowing a early color start
This season, the combination of drought, cool September start is allowing colors to begin early. Some dullness, early drop in areas likely, but it does not necessarily mean a mute uncolorful season.
Some pics from this week
Piney Resovoir 9/13
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Grantsville 9/13
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The Glades 9/13
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West of Bittinger 9/10
Bald Knob 9/9
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Canaan Mt 9/9
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Cranesville Swamp 9/10
over the coming week the swamp colors should really come in
9/12
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From the Garrett County Forestry Board via Facebook
Over the coming 10-14 days expect more rapid color transition. Some dull, some vibrant. A bit earlier than normal after years of being a bit later than normal. Instead of 7-10 days late, we may run 7-10 days early in what is peak color and that peak color, as always but maybe more so this year will have more variances location to location based on soil conditions, dominant tree species with drought stress.
Cool a.m sheltered valleys, milder elsewhere. Easterly flow, few clouds, pleasant day.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Towards Bowman Hill morning
The Glades
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Garrett County Airport
Mchenry morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
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Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Chilly valley a.m, pleasant day. Easterly breezes up a bit.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningUp from Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningWest of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening Chillin
The Glades
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Glendale morning Deep Creek Lake morning By Glendale afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
A overall cool start, pleasant day. A day reminiscent of 23 years ago today.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening
Garrett County Airport
EveningGarrett College evening Railey Cam morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Colder valley start. Canaan Valley Refuge started again with nations min. Pleasant fall day, bit milder.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
The Glades
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Garrett County Airport
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Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
The day began with the valley bottoming out at 19.9°. The coldest temperature in the lower 48.
That’s at the Virginia Tech Weather Station in the northern part of the valley. The photos upcoming below are in that area as well.
On my way towards the station, I brought along a hobo logger and set out while I adventured around a bit and picked it back up on the way out. It too hit 19.9.
–– the Pic has it looking more angled vs reality. Only a hour temporary spot as I walked around.
And again the Northern Valley Station:
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Comparison to the Ridgetops
Ok, on to some pics around the northern Canaan Valley NWR this morning.
As you walk down Middle Ridge trail you can progressively feel it getting colder. ––This is the trail. Beaver Dams have the creek backed up. I trudged through….––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––Frozen shoe ––––––––––––––The trail…
A very cold valley start. Frost and freezes. Milder ridgetops. A pleasant fall day.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
rainfall 0, Month to date .08″, Year time date 39.34″
Dyacon Data Below
Secondary and usually slightly colder location touching 32°Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades middayRock Lodge Rd near The Glades midday Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening
The Glades
By The Glades midday-Sandhill Cranes–––
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake midday Rock Lodge Rd midday
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP 32 towards Davis morning 32 Towards Davis morning
Canaan Mt Bog
–– Leaf report for the immediate bog area. That is dominated by maple. Moderate maple color around the bog. With these cold nights expect that jump to near or peak in 7 to 14 days. Again, around the immediate bog area. Ground cover. Ferns, heath is in moderate color and advancing. –––––––––––––––––––––––––
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Heading upHeading up–––At the top- Mountain Ash–Mountain Ash–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––-winterberry-striped maple––
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
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Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
CANAAN VALLEY REFUGE ADDITION CLICK THE LINK BELOW
Allegheny Mountains Weather 