* to note- despite overnight temps failing to fall below 40°, and light winds, snow on the ground, surface that melted yesterday refroze. Shaded areas that didn’t melt yesterday still had a powder texture at 7:30am.
Feb 2(Super Bowl Sunday/Groundhogs day and Phil saw his shadow)
Periods of heavy snow overnight, and snow continuing into this morning ending between 9-10am. Some snow was steadily falling during this time. If you did not get a 10am measurement, your ending tally would be off as rapid melting ensued. Much like recording a springtime sno . . Along with blowing and drifting overnight). Snowfall in general of 2-4″. Henry Oester near Accident reporting 4″. Likely higher amounts above 4000′ in Tucker. Beyond 10am today, clearing skies, strong winds and rapidly rising temps. Many exposed open areas that partially blew off, was completely bare by evening.
Cloudy, drizzle to some snow in morning. No stickage locally, above 3500′ in Wv today snow did stick. Periods of snow ther . When precip went light here, drizzle mixed in. Snow did get going and accumulating after nightfall area wide.
Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow
Makes no sense…..
Post generated 8:30am 2/1/20
Yesterday I mentioned checking this morning to see of models are initializing ok. They look to be. There has been NO snow overnight, models NEVER had any snow overnight or early morning. Yet, forecast have. The official NWS forecast has had snow early and then I was further confused. The NWS forecast has snow showers likely this morning, changing to snow and rain mixed this afternoon. What? This morning supports liquid, snow mix, this afternoon supports snow, is more in line with reality…heavier precip should be primarily snow across the high ground 2600-3000’+
Under light precip and 850s at and plus 0 this morning it’s going to snow??? But as the precip picks up as we go through the day and 850s go to -2 to -3 it rains??? That’s not how it works.
And the soundings
Sounding 1 supports some liquid this morning as we are seeing with the light precip
Sounding 2 supports snow this afternoon/evening
so yesterday the forecast had a 0% chance of 4″ in Canaan. All models supported the possibility of it. Now this morning the forecast has a 22% chance. The models have held steady eddy.
4% chance then
4″ chance now- nothing on models has changed.
Snowfall off the models- comparisons to yesterday can be seen off previous post.
6z ECMWF
KUCHERA
10 to 1
Total qpf, and that first tenth of precip doesn’t even arrive until this afternoon! That will be in snow form across the high ground. 2500-3000’+
6z GFS
KUCHERA
10 TO 1
Total qpf, again it supports drizzle this morning as the precip does not increase until this afternoon!
0z Canadian aye…
KUCHERA
10 TO 1
Total qpf
National Model Blend
10 to 1
I’d still lean
1800-2500 1-3″, leaning towards low to mid range and the low range with melting at 1800′- 2000
2500-3500 2-4″ leaning low to mid range,,and a good performance gets the high end
3500′ and up- 3-6″ leaning low to mid range, but with temps being critical elsewhere at the onset, this zone is all good.
This is accompanied by some gusty winds overnight and snow activity runs into the morning on Sunday and things gradually mild up through the afternoon ahead of very mild air early to mid next week. With a fight of cold air pushing towards the mason dixon at times. If it pushes, forecasted number will be too high.
This was never a overnight or early morning snow on the models. So, as of now, models are doing ok.
Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow
Can we trust the models??
Models have forever struggled with long range events. Recently, models have as well struggled in the short term. Models have even initialized wrong. Meaning they are off from the get go. Over the next 3-6 hours they’ve been off. Their value of late has been very poor and in the years I’ve had model watching, I do not recall any other period being this poor in the model world. The ECMWF is not what it used to be. The upgraded GFS has been very poor. The mesoscale models overdue qpf on an almost consistent basis and of late, almost all modeling has to some degree. That brings the question, what can we trust?
Current guidance suggest a 1-3″ snow 1800-2500 Saturday afternoon through mid morning Sunday. 2-4″- 2500-3500′ and 3-6″ above 3500′.
Step by step
By late morning to early afternoon tomorrow, the 12z ECMWF put out .05 to .1 precip. That should be in the form of a liquid, snow mix below 2500′-3000′ initially. So at that time any new accumulation should be minimal unless precip arrives ahead of schedule.
6 hour precip
The soundings support a rapid surface cooling through the afternoon(soundings off the ECMWF over Garrett) leaving the high ground in snow business…
By 4pm the ECMWF looks like
With a precip type looking like
With surface temps in the afternoon, evening lower 30s 2500-3000, upper 20s- lower 30s above 3000′ at 4pm. Initially a wet compact snow, and as we drift towards midnight all areas above 2500 fall below 30°, with areas above 3500-4000 24-28.
models pumping out the most precip from 2pm through 10am Sunday and that’s on the order of .2 to .5. The initial precip, the snow ratios will be lower but increase overnight as the 850s run -6 to -8c, with surface into the 20s. Winds will be gusty overnight, and that will lower ratios a bit settling the snow as it blows about.
Timeline
total qpf off the models through midday Sunday
Kuchera snowfall- another aspect of modeling that has not been impressive
10 to 1 off the ICON
10 to 1 off the ECMWF
10 to 1 off the GFS
Looking at that, typically I would lean 1800-2500 1-3″, 2500-3500 2-4″, 3500’+ 3-6″ .With a strong leaning as always towards the low end, especially below 3500′ with onset temps, then with a good performance reaching the high end. But, can the models be trusted. It will be interesting tomorrow morning watching them initialize with current conditions.
Pitts NWS graphics
With a 0 chance of 4″anywhere
WPC
2″ and 4″
This has been a terrible week in the model world, the NWS world, while their initial snowfall forecast last week before they upped it worked out ok, other days such as mostly sunny all day on Wednesday when barely a glimpse of sun was seen in most areas. I do not recall a period as of late where the models have been this unreliable. They are unreliable enough, its almost a misrepresentation posting them.
Some disagreements I’d have with the Pitt discussion and this has been a repeated thing many times … precipitating with colder 850s pushing in does not lead to any diurnal warming across the high ground. Besides, colder air aloft moves in during the daytime, its mildest overnight and in the morning hours.
However this does play out through Sunday morning whether there is 1″ or 3″, or more in spots, it will be a rapid goodbye as temps mild up Sunday to upper 30s lower 40s, and 50s Monday. Monday does have low dewpoints yet,,but gusty winds. Temps remain up through Thursday with a chance at a day or 2 with slightly lower temps with cooler bit still above seasonal air fighting from the north. That wins out late week.
A cloudy day after a early morning period of less than an hour of sun in spots, some fog yet skirting the high ground. Forecast called for mostly sunny skies all day, that never occured. Some light snow fell overnight into the morning. The rime across the high ground is gorgeous.
Skies cleared after dark for several hours allowing temps to plummet(view valley sites below)
Light fine snow overnight, very light today and often nothing occurring. Also a period of freezing drizzle occured late day. Models overdoing snowfall, again.
Cloudy, turning colder. Some snow across the Wv high ground. Mainly 3500-3800 and up. Approx 1-1.5 on top of Spruce of new snow. Suspicions are a period of snow occueed prior to midnight last night 10pm to 11:30 period. Showers below 3500 early morning and that gave way to some light snowshowers region wide afternoon. Aside from the high ground new snow, from my travels, no area had any leftover snow cover and I had no decent coverage until I returned to Bittinger 2nw Valley.
Allegheny Mountains Weather 