December 5, 2019

December 5, 2019′

Dec 5(Thurs)

The day began with lingering snow showers, windy conditions, drifting of the newly fallen snow. Clouds began to break in the morning to allow for some sunny intervals the remainder of the day.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[22.3]—MAX[31.3]—AVG[26.8]—PRECIP[.09]

Snowfall- 3.4″ overnight through the 7am boardsweep with no additional accu.

7am depth 5.3″

Snowfall season to date 11.9″

Garrett College

MIN[25.6]—MAX[32.5]—AVG[29.0]—PRECIP[F]

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[21.0]—MAX[28.0]—AVG[24.5]—PRECIP[.22]7am

Event snowfall 4.4″ from 7am yesterday through 7am today

Snowfall season to date 19.2″

Comments by Dave Lesher

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[23.5]—MAX[30.6]—AVG[27.0]—PRECIP[.05]

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[18.5]—MAX[[24.6]—AVG[21.5]—PRECIP[F]

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[19.2]—MAX[25.9]—AVG[22.5]—PRECIP[F]

Spruce Knob

MIN[17.8]—MAX[22.6]—AVG[20.2]—PRECIP[F]

Snowshoe

MIN[19.9]—MAX[24.8]—AVG[22.3]

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[22.8]—MAX[31.1]—AVG[26.9]

7Springs

MIN[23.6]—MAX[27.8]—AVG[25.7]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[28.2]—MAX[41.9]—AVG[35.0]

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics today-

Bittinger area

Oakland/Sand Flat area

Grantsville area

Savage Mt/Finzel area

Ice remaining in this area since the Saturday night/Sunday ice event

Savage Mt looking at Mt. Davis all iced in yet from Sunday

Lavale to Cumberland

No winter down east of the high ground

On east

From Martin’s Mt ON 68 looking NE into PA, to Martin’s Hill at 2700′. Some ice was visible on the east side

Further east in Fulton County Pa, the east side of the higher north section of Town Hill/Emmaville Mt with ice remaining

Visible on left

That gives a great example of how these marginal ice setups work.

Back in time

Some historical structures in Garrett County

A black n white look at a few of today’s pics….

The old Cassleman Bridge

The Cassleman Inn

The old Cherry Glade Church

Morning outlook update:

POST GENERATED AT 7:15AM 12/5/19

Snowfall from the latest event through 7am

Hidden Valley Valley Somerset County at 3.5″

Bittinger 2nw Valley at 3.4″

Mt. Lake Park at 3.5″

Terra Alta 4.9 NNE at 4.7″

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE at 4.4″

Snowshoe at 4.0″(both coop and resort)

Post generated at 7am:12/5/19

Snow tapers off this morning and we are left with mainly cloudy skies with some breaks in the clouds this afternoon. Temps mid to upper 20s up high(above 3700), 30-35 elsewhere.

Temps hold steady overnight and begin to rise slowly before dawn tomorrow. Winds will be on the increase, especially in the northern part of the region(Canaan on north). Temps briefly run upper 30s high ground tomorrow, lower 40s under 3200′. Some very light over running precip tries to develop tomorrow afternoon, this will allow afternoon temps to fall back 29-33 up high,(above 3700′) low to mid 30s elsewhere. Passing snow showers tomorrow afternoon, through shortly after nightfall, may put down a fresh coating in spots (inch +/-). Very minor event.

Friday night- skies begin to break, winds go calm, a drier air mass in play. The valleys “may” drop off significantly if the cloud cover erodes soon enough. Single digits in the coldest valleys, most valleys teens, if skies clear off soon enough, high ground around 20-24.

Saturday- a marginally colder air mass vs tomorrow back in place. Temps 30-35 above 3700′ . 34-39 elsewhere.

Sunday, return flow of milder air, not without resistance with some SE flow keeping some of the eastern zones cooler. 36-41 on the east side of the high Alleghenies(Allegheny Front, north central Garrett and points north, northeast)

Early next week- mild air on Monday, with rain pushing in, rain continues into Tuesday before changing to snow at some point. Models vary on timing. Amounts at this point look insignificant. That is followed by a brief shot of very cold air.

Today into weekend off the 6z GFS

2m Temps

MSLP/6HR/PRECIP TYPE

Temps this morning;

Teens across some of the high ground above 4000′, 20s 2000-4000′, low to mid 30s under 2000, all mid 30s under 1500′

Highway cams

At the resorts

December 4, 2019

Dec 4(Wed)

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[26.4]—MAX[31.5]—AVG[28.9]—PRECIP[.03]

Snowfall- .5″ overnight through 6am boardsweep, .2″ today through 4pm boardsweep (no additional through 6pm)

Snowfall season to date 8.5″ through 6pm

Garrett College

MIN[26.3]—MAX[31.9]—AVG[29.1]

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[21.8]—MAX[27.8]—AVG[24.8]—PRECIP[.06]

New snowfall at 7am .06

Season to date total snowfall 14.8″

Comments by Dave Lesher

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[22.6]—MAX[31.0]—AVG[26.8]—PRECIP[.25]

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[19.2]—MAX[25.5]—AVG[22.3]—PRECIP[F]

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[20.5]—MAX[26.6]—AVG[23.5]—PRECIP[F]

Spruce Knob

MIN[17.1]—MAX[25.3]—AVG[21.2]—PRECIP[F]

Snowshoe

MIN[16.7]—MAX[26.1]—AVG[21.4]

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[24.6]—MAX[31.5]—AVG[28.0]

7Springs

MIN[24.3]—MAX[27.3]—AVG[25.8]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[35.6]—MAX[43.1]—AVG[39.3]

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

Comparison view

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics today-

Deep Creek Lake to the Bittinger area

Deep Creek Lake towards Oakland

Up Backbone Mt from Silver Lake

Thomas -Davis

Canaan Mt- 32 and the Loop

Morning outlook update:

The winter look and feel holds today with light snow this morning giving way to some more steady snow this afternoon into the overnight.

In general this looks like a 2-4″ event with a favored zone of 4-6″ popping up.

6z GFS

Snowfall amounts off the model

The 0z ECMWF comes in a little less, but it doesn’t always handle these type of systems great

The NWS forecast

Snowfall amounts from the NWS

Morning cams

Roadways north to south

Resorts-7Springs, Wisp, Canaan, Snowshoe

December 3, 2019

Dec 3(Tues)

A fine light snow at times today, high ground fog. Some time, to around 2700′.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[26.2]—MAX[28.3]—AVG[27.2]—PRECIP[.12]7am

Snowfall- 1.0″ overnight, .2 today through 6pm boardsweep..measurement took at 4pm, no additional through 6pm

Snowfall season to date 7.8″

Garrett College

MIN[26.0]—MAX[27.6]—AVG[26.8]—PRECIP[F]

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[22.5]—MAX[24.6]—AVG[23.5]—PRECIP[.23]7am

Snowfall 4.5″ through 7am

Snowfall season to date 14.2″

Comments by Dave Lesher

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[23.0]—MAX[25.3]—AVG[24.1]—PRECIP[

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[20.1]—MAX[22.3]—AVG[21.2]—PRECIP[F]

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[21.2]—MAX[23.7]—AVG[22.4]—PRECIP[F]

Spruce Knob

MIN[18.0]—MAX[20.8]—AVG[19.4]—PRECIP[F]

Snowshoe

MIN[17.2]—MAX[21.7]—AVG[19.4]

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[24.4]—MAX[27.7]—AVG[26.0]

7Springs

MIN[23.9]—MAX[25.7]—AVG[24.8]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[36.1]—MAX[38.8]—AVG[37.4]

The valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics today-

McHenry – Bittinger area

Oakland area

Morning outlook:

Post generated at 8:20am 12/3/19

December 3, 2019

A snowfall recap through this morning for total event snow(minimal may yet occur)

Bittinger 2nw Valley 2.3″

Accident 3.9e 2.1″

Mt. Lake Park 1.5″

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE 5.3″

Snowshoe 4.0″ from the coop observer, the resort reports 5.5″

Overall totals for this event were in the low end range of expectations.

Going forward…

This morning’s fine light snow may end as a touch of freezing mist/drizzle today. Not a big deal, but as always, be alert if that occurs.

A little snow activity may pass through tomorrow morning, this looks very light. The better wave pushes through late day into the overnight hours. This one looks to be a general 2-4″ (again lean low to mid totals,,if it performs well, high mark may be reached). There should be though pops of 4″+ with this. If a few pockets picked up 5, 6″ that would not be surprising. That ends during the day Thursday.

6z ECMWF

Snowfall amounts off the model – a minimal portion of this total is from now until tomorrow morning. Primarily late tomorrow into Thursday

6z GFS

Snowfall amounts off the model. Again, the same as above. A minimal amount is from ow until tomorrow morning. Primarily late tomorrow into Thursday.

Looking into next week

Early week, winter lovers need to go hibernate. It does not look pretty. Early week looks like a wet, mild period.

Temps off the 6Z GFS and 0Z ECMWF for Garrett Airport.

And a snippet of what the surface looks like Monday, this continues into Tuesday and may change to snow during the day.

Morning cams

Roads-north to south

Resorts-7Springs, Wisp, Canaan, Snowshoe

Temps this a.m

December 2, 2019

December 2, 2019

Dec 2(Mon)

Snowshowers on and off through the day. Mostly light, at times moderate. Picked up some after nightfall.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[27.5]—MAX[31.8]—AVG[29.6]—PRECIP[.43]7am

Snowfall today at 1.3″ at 6pm boardsweep

Snowfall season to date at 6.6″

Garrett College

MIN[27.5]—MAX[32.1]—AVG[29.8]—PRECIP[F]

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[24.3]—MAX[28.7]—AVG[26.5]—[.79]7am

Snowfall through 7pm 3.3″

Snowfall season to date 12.2″

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[25.3]—MAX[29.1]—AVG[27.2]—PRECIP[

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[21.9]—MAX[25.9]—AVG[23.9]—PRECIP[F]

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[23.0]—MAX[27.3]—AVG[25.1]—PRECIP[F]

Spruce Knob

MIN[20.3]—MAX[25.0]—AVG[22.6]—PRECIP[F]

Snowshoe

MIN[20.5]—MAX[24.3]—AVG[22.4]

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[26.6]—MAX[31.1]—AVG[28.8

7Springs

MIN[25.6]—MAX[29.4]—AVG[27.5]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[37.0]—MAX[42.6]—AVG[39.8]

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Results on a windy day

Canaan area temps

Comparison view

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics today-

Bittinger area

McHenry/Deep Creek/Sand Flat/ North of Oakland areas

Morning outlook-

Post generated 8am:

Backside snows kick in today and increase through the day. Areas in the southern Alleghenies, down through the Smokies have the best upslope trajectory with this initially today. As we progress into the afternoon, evening, snow activity increases north into Garrett County, Preston County into southern Pa(Fayette, Westmoreland, Somerset, Cambria) as winds become more NW. Moderate pockets do exist in this area this morning though.

Winds turning NW-

(6ZGFS-Ventusky images, 0zECMWF-Weatherbell)

Overall thoughts on accumulation from now through Tuesday morning really has not changed.

4-8″ WV upslope High Ground and lean low to mid range as always in expected totals, if things perform well, the upper ranges can be met, or even exceeded.

2-5″ Preston, Garrett, Somerset, Cambria, eastern Fayette, eastern Westmoreland. West is best, east it least.

The WFO(weather forecast office)snowfall map looks like –

(Image-weather.us)

Off the models(6z GFS, 0z ECMWF)

NWS detailed outlooks

Morning traffic cams, 8am

Keysers Ridge, Deep Creek Lake, Savage Mt(ice remains on trees here from yesterday) and 135 on Backbone

219 Centennial Park Tucker County

Out on 33, east of Harman at the divide

Up and over North Fork from Judy Gap to Franklin, a snowy ride over the top

A view west to Spruce Knob and east to Snowy Mt

Across Allegheny Mt on 250 west of Monterey

Snow coming down at Snowshoe

Then on to Wednesday, a light disturbance north early followed by another round of snow later, into Thursday. This round looks like 1-3″/2-4″ type deal as of now , the GFS is a little more pumped for it than those numbers.

0z ECMWF Snowfall for the Wednesday/night event(Image- 0z ECMWF Kuchera Ratio Weatherbell)

The 6z GFS is a bit more pumped. This is a 10-1 view, with reality ratios would be more in the 12-15 to 1. (Image-6z GFS 10-1 snowfall). Likeky overdone.

Temperatures look pretty stable all week with lows generally in the 20s, the Wv high ground upper teens at times, highs generally 28-35, with the Wv high ground holding a notch under that.

The unreliable long range….

Further out into next week, the European model suggest more Pacific air into the pattern and that equals a more mild W/SW flow regime. This pattern can bring ice on the leading edge of systems, where we just saw it yesterday, followed by brief bout of cold with backsides snows, with a quick exit of the cold and back to mild. Not a blow torch warm pattern, but one mild enough next week that has more wet overall vs white.

Long range 7 days plus is sketchy at best. These things do change, and do so frequently. As of now though, it does not look wintry week next week after out general wintry week this week. Ski resorts should maximize opportunity this week,,some will exist next week, but it may be minimized with mild intrusions.

0z ECMWF, the 500mb pattern flattens out and rebuilds that dreaded SE Ridge.(dreaded for snow lovers). While it’s been stronger, the existence of it, is not a snowy look. The MJO off the ECMWF agrees with this feature as well.

MJO off the ECMWF

The 0z ECMWF 500mb Heights/Wind

The ECMWF ensemble mean 5 day temperature anomalies looks almost exactly like what a phase 3 MJO for early to mid December would look like.

The American GFS does not take the MJO into phase 3 and does not agree with the Euro completely. It keeps a little more cold in the overall pattern and holds the MJO into phase 2. That pattern would allow a battle to persist within the Ohio river valley into our area, with the area being the war zone of mild vs cold. That would still likely be leading edge ice, rain, backside snows type pattern. The main difference is, more cold intrusions vs what the ECMWF shows

The GFS MJO

And the precipitation composite, phase 2

6z GFS ensemble 5 day temperature mean

6z GFS 500mb Heights/wind

Some variance in the 7-14 day window..

December 1, 2019

December 1, 2019

A icy start, and that ice lingered into the afternoon. In some locations in those classic areas, it held the entire day. West areas saw rain. After nightfall some thunder, lightning, soft hail, graupel, wet snow. Dense fog across Savage Mt with a large wreck today.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[30.2]—MAX[34.9]—AVG[32.5]—PRECIP[.11]7am

Snowfall season to date 5.3″

Garrett College

MIN[30.4]—MAX[36.3]—AVG[33.3]—PRECIP[.49]

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[28.5]—MAX[46.3]—AVG[34.8]—PRECIP[.15]7am

Snowfall season to date 8.9″

CRN-Canaan

MIN[29.1]—MAX[45.9]—AVG[37.5]—PRECIP[.56]

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[26.1]—MAX[43.0]—AVG[34.5]—PRECIP[.49]

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[27.0]—MAX[41.5]—AVG[34.2]—PRECIP[.55]

Spruce Knob

MIN[25.3]—MAX[41.9]—AVG[33.6]—PRECIP[.32]

Snowshoe

MIN[24.1]—MAX[45.9]—AVG[35.0]

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[31.1]—MAX[45.7]—AVG[38.4]

7Springs

MIN[27.5]—MAX[34.7]—AVG[31.1]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[34.3]—MAX[39.7]—AVG[37.0]

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

Comparison view

Savage Mt vs Bruceton Mills

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

pics today-

The Bittinger area

Meadow Mt- trail to the old fire tower off the Frank Brenneman Rd

Meadow Mt north on New Germany, then to Rt 40 east of Grantsville via Chestnut Ridge

RT 40 east to Savage Mt and back west to Grantsville

Dan’s Rock area on Dans Mountain

Mt. Davis area

Early afternoon temps here were holding at 31°

McHenry after nightfall

Photos by the Bittinger Volunteer Fire Department

I-68 pileup, Savage Mt.

Shaft Volunteer Fire Department photos

Video posted by Cumberland on Patrol Facebook page

Outlook: generated 7:30am

Ice zones remain pretty much confined inside the red areas, and main accretion is on the higher east facing elevations above 2500′ where the ridges are highlighted in blue. Again, this is not a widespread power outage type ice event. Ice accretion around a tenth outside the east facing ridges at +2500′ within the red zone. .2 to .4 total will be likely on the east facing ridges +2500′ in this zone. Much less in non east facing areas in the zone.

Temps are marginal, roadways mainly fine. The state can stop dumping salt on.

Speaking of marginal temps ..this morning

Ice accretion greatest on east facing areas, that the wind helps plaster and freeze faster. Out of the wind, temps are marginal enough, a lot runs off before freezing.

By those pics, you can see the east wind siding in freezing.

This should continue in a marginal fashion and shrink in coverage through midday.

Modeled temps by midday

The better half…❄

The snow side, that comes in tonight into Tuesday. Nothing has really changed since yesterday mornings update. 2-5″ Garrett, Preston, Fayette, Somerset, Cambria high ground. West is best ,east is least.

The Wv high ground 4-8″ Sunday night through Tuesday a.m and lean low to mid range on those numbers. That will be blown about Monday. Temps hold 20s. Ignore forecast of rain mix for the high ground Monday.

More accumulation midweek.

November 30, 2019

November 30, 2019

Canaan cam down most of the day…few still images as it returned this afternoon

Nov 30(Sat)

Mainly cloudy ,some dim sun through the overcast. A easterly flow. A very brief period(less than 5 minutes) of some light sprinkles in the evening..

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[30.3]—MAX[39.3]—AVG[34.8]—PRECIP [0]

Snowfall season to date 5.3″

Garrett College

MIN[30.3]—MAX[40.0]—AVG[35.1]—PRECIP[0]

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[30.8]—MAX[41.6]—AVG[36.2]—PRECIP[0]

Snowfall season to date 8.9″

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[30.8]—MAX[40.0]—AVG[35.4]—PRECIP[0]

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[30.6]—MAX[40.8]—AVG[35.7]—PRECIP[.09]

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[28.4]—MAX[39.2]—AVG[33.8]—PRECIP[.05]

Spruce Knob

MIN[31.3]—MAX[38.1]—AVG[34.7]—PRECIP[.02]

Snowshoe

MIN 32.5—MAX[45.0]—AVG[38.7]

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[32.5]—MAX[43.0]—AVG[37.7]

7Springs

MIN[26.3]—MAX[35.1]—AVG[30.7]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[36.5]—MAX[43.3]—AVG[39.9]

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

November Summary

Temps-

Precipitation-

Outlooks-

Lots to talk about over the next few days. Up first is the ice event. For many folks in the region, this is nothing more than a cold rain event, before a changeover to snow late Sunday. For those in the classic ice zone with this type of setup..

Classic setup for this type of event

Duration once zones in red

Heaviest ice zones east facing ridge tops from Negro Mt, Meadow Mt, Savage Mt, Dan’s Mt, down the Allegheny Front. Data is limited at Bear Rocks area, but often suspected there is a significant differene from the Allegheny Front to Cabin Mt. Even the northern portion of Backbone Mt is in play. Which becomes separated from Savage Mt by the Savage River.

Areas west of the red line, it often depends how much cold air is in play and the type of air mass. With this current upcoming event, some icing likely occurs back to McHenry, and possible Cranesville. The further west you go, the more limited it is . The same can be said for south, right along the Allegheny front to Spruce Knob, where there is data, can often be in play at the onset, with this event, that looks brief, if at all.

The temp setup off the models…

Models, especially the 3km Nam handle this setup superbly. The German ICON model has came into the game and has performed well also, as well as the Canadian RDPS. These short range models also try to nail down a tighter grid and in general perform well on temps, but they do lack on precip. The 9KM GFS, ECMWF typically perform better on precip amounts.

With this current event, the German ICON model caught on to the idea first that the mild surge does not completely press across Garrett County tomorrow as had been modeled by almost all models the past several days, including the 3km Nam. The 3km Nam is the king at this setup, albeit often 1-2° too cold. Last night, the 3km Nam came into an agreement with the ICON model, and now the ECMWF has followed as well. Temps come up above freezing eventually for almost everyone tomorrow, except Savage Mt area, Dan’s Mt may be a holdout until nightfall, and then if they go +32, it may be brief. By that time, the west winds kick in, and the steady to backsliding temps begin.

Also too note: Expect temps to come up 34-38 today, then backslide with precip onset with some evaporative cooling

Let’s see the setup-

The German ICON 6z 11/30/19

6z 3km Nam 11/30/19

As well as these models do on temps, they do lack on precip amounts.

Modeled ice amounts

The 6Z ECMWF, 6Z GFS, 6Z 3KM NAM, CANADIAN RDPS(which I tend to favor this time)

These models aren’t God. Only tools, and that’s where climatology and human input enters the picture. For years I have harped on the Pittsburgh NWS failings with the setup and it often looked very little like what typically happens climatalogically. The improvements at the Pittsburgh office recently has been significant, and great to see. They have an awesome forecasting crew there now, its evident.

The Weather Service map

The only adjustments I would make, areas below 2500 in Garrett in the ice zone(Grantsville). The town itself may be limited as temps are a bit marginal at the onset and near the end. It’s more the higher east facing slopes above 2500′ in this zone that is of concern.

Just using the ridgelines for example, I would lean .2 to .4 ice accretion for areas up high, above 2500′, a trace to .2 below 2500′ in Garrett within that red zone. Coming south, I still think Mt. Storm may see a duration period of freezing into Sunday a.m. This is not the classic freezing rain setup that follows a huge artic cold outbreak that features very cold air trapped in the valleys. Even east. Cumberland, Keyser, teters with 32°, but likely remains above, the high ground in Allegheny above 1500′ is in play for ice though.

The better half…..

❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

As the system passes by, the focus shifts like the wind. The winds swing west and northwest. Any rain changes to snow late Sunday Wv highground Tucker to Pocahontas, then overnight as we go into Garrett, Somerset, Fayette, Cambria, Preston.

Originally, a few days ago I mentioned this looked like a 2-5″ backside event Sunday night to Tuesday a.m. I’ll hold those expectations north of Tucker County high ground. As always in my ranges, lean low to mid amounts and if things perform well, the highmark can be reached. Often when the return flow comes back to the NW, west is best for snow. Cranesville outperforms Savage Mt. So in that 2-5″ range, I’d lean low towards Savage Mt and mid to even high at Cranesville with elsewhere falling in between. I’ve always thought of this as the winter equalizer in the immediate area, with Savage Mt holding cold the longest as the warmth comes in from the southwest in setups like today/tomorrow, then with the areas in western Garrett and Preston getting mild, but then those areas pick up the best snow with upslope events that frequently follow the lead event.

For the WV high ground, the big tweak made there. Amounts from Sunday night through Tuesday a.m look to be in the 4-8″ range. Again, lean low to mid range with if things perform well, then the upper range is in target.

Modeled snowfall off the 6z ECMWF and 6z GFS.

Again, these are models, they aren’t the gospel. Physics in the models are not perfect and sometimes holds the highest amounts just west of the actual high ground. That’s model error and where human input comes in. Have you ever seen the futurecast predictors on TV show Elkins 4″ , Snowshoe 2″. That’s a model bias that must be corrected by the forecast giver, and it often goes unnoticed.

This event should allow for some XC skiing at Whitegrass, especially the snow farm as the snow will be blown about.

Modeled gust Monday afternoon

Modeled off the 6z ECMWF

Wind gust are increasing through the day on Monday 25-40mph gust with higher on the exposed areas above 4000′.

Temperatures do not look bitter cold early to mid week, but hold into the 20s day and night, maybe upper teens on the tops at night. That will allow for some duration snowmaking at area resorts this week as well. For the moment, all appears good in the winter world.

With more light accumulations mid week to add to those totals….

This the season…

November 29, 2019

November 29, 2019

The day remained mostly cloudy but dry. Temp profile was one of latitude, not just altitude. Areas north remained cooler vs south. My area retained yesterdays ice on the trees the entire day.

Nov 29(Friday)

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[28.3]–MAX[33.9]–AVG[31.1]—PRECIP[T]7am

Snowfall season to date 5.3″

Garrett College

MIN[28.2]—MAX[33.7]—AVG[30.9]—PRECIP[.02]

Precip would be melt from yesterday

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[24.5]—MAX[37.9]—AVG[31.2]—PRECIP[T]

Snowfall season to date 8.9″

comments by Dave Lesher

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[25.6]—MAX[37.9]—AVG[31.7]—PRECIP[

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[21.9]—MAX[36.7]—AVG[29.3]—PRECIP[0]

Cabin Mt – western Sods

MIN[23.4]—MAX[35.2]—AVG[29.3]—PRECIP[.03]

Precip is melt

Spruce Knob

MIN[21.2]—MAX[41.0]—AVG[31.1]—PRECIP[0]

Snowshoe

MIN[23.9]—MAX[44.2]—AVG[34.0]

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[26.8]—MAX[41.2]—AVG[34.0]

7Springs

MIN[24.7]—MAX[27.8]—AVG[26.2]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[34.1]—MAX[48.0]—AVG[41.0]

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

RTMA

Radar void

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics today-

Bittinger area

Some ice remained on the trees the entire day.

Deep Creek Lake and the McHenry area

Early morning, post dawn, a very light snow occured along the south end of Rock Lodge Rd, and along the south end of Meadow Mt. The Wisp was making snow at the time and perhaps it was moisture from that.

Photos by Mary G Jones on Cabin Mt

November 28, 2019

November 28, 2019

Thanksgiving

Nov 28(Thursday)

A trace of snow overnight, precip was primarily light freezing drizzle, freezing mist that continued all day in the Bittinger area. Created very icy secondary roads before they were cindered. In the Wv high ground, high elevation rime was the main event, with a trace of snow, freezing drizzle mainly north. Strong winds accompanied this throughout the region, but relaxing through the day. Fires going in the Smoke Hole Canyon today.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[28.9]–MAX[35.8]–AVG[32.3]–PRECIP[.03]7am

Snowfall- trace

Season to date snowfall 5.3″

Coating of freezing rain, up to +/- a tenth west facing areas that had wind driven drizzle all day with temps at 29°

Garrett College

MIN[28.7]—MAX[35.8]—AVG[32.2]—PRECIP[0]

Tipping bucket gauge, precip recieved frozen.

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[24.6]—MAX[32.0]—AVG[28.3]—PRECIP[.02]7am

Comments by Dave Lesher

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[25.7]—MAX[33.6]—AVG[29.6]

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[22.3]—MAX[28.9]—AVG[25.6]—PRECIP[0]

Cabin Mt- western Sods

MIN[23.2]—MAX[30.2]—AVG[26.7]—PRECIP[0]

Wind gust peaked at 2:20am at 64.8mph

Spruce Knob

MIN[21.0]—MAX[27.7]—AVG[24.3]—PRECIP[0]

Spruce was rimed up nicely as you’ll see in pics and video on below

Snowshoe

MIN[21.0]—MAX[28.2]—AVG[24.6]

Wind gust peak at 58.6. Again, siting of this station is unknown. Wind data may or may not be accurate.

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[27.0]—MAX[34.9]—AVG[30.9]

7Springs

MIN[26.4]—MAX[30.8]—AVG[28.6]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[38.3]—MAX[45.8]—AVG[42.0

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

Comparison view

RTMA

Radar

Most of the consistent light drizzle north went undetected.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

Pics today-

Bittinger area

North Fork Mountain

From Rt 33

Spruce Knob

High Mountain area

Weiss Knob coming up from Dryfork

Smoke Hole Fire

Driving south on 220 today towards Franklin from Petersburg, the sky became noticeably hazy looking. A fire burning near Eagle Rock/Dry Hollow/Cave Mt at the southern end of the Smoke Hole area.(Dry Hollow,Smoke Hole- there is a reason for those names)

The area is very rugged, very steep and covered in fresh falling leaf debri from autumn. After very strong winds drying the surface, and aiding the fire, it was able to move quickly. Below is some information, maps, social media photos of the event location.

As I was headed south on 220….the air had that smoky, dim appearance.

Social media photos

photos by Clint Davis

Photos by @troutslayer_99 on instagram

Photis and video by Joanna Blare

November 27, 2019

November 27, 2019

Nov 27(Wed)

Few light showers overnight, cloudy start to afternoon sunshine with increasing strong winds with high wind warnings issued. A very mild afternoon. A few flakes after dark, with ice pellets.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[29.5]–MAX[62.3]–AVG[45.9]–PRECIP[.05]7am

Season to date snowfall 5.3″

Garrett College

MIN[35.9]—MAX[62.7]—AVG[49.3]—PRECIP[.05]

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[31.9]–MAX[57.3]–AVG[44.6]–PRECIP[.04]7am

Season to date snowfall 8.9″

Climate Reference Network Canaan State Park

MIN[33.6]—MAX[59.2]—AVG[46.4]—PRECIP

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[29.1]—MAX[54.1]—AVG[41.6]—PRECIP[.11]

Cabin Mt – western Dolly Sods

MIN[30.7]—MAX[55.9]—AVG[43.3]—PRECIP[.06]

Peak wind gust to 60.3mph

Spruce Knob

MIN[28.0]—MAX[49.1]—AVG[38.5]—PRECIP[.10]

Snowshoe

MIN[28.2]—MAX[51.6]—AVG[39.9]

Peak wind gust at this station at 69.6mph. However I will include a huge * because the siting of this station is unknown and therefore wind data may be enhanced, if this station is poorly sited and enhanced by artificial surroundings enhancing wind funneling. This is not to say the data is incorrect. It’s an unknown.

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[25.3]—MAX[60.4]—AVG[42.8]

7Springs

MIN[30.6]—MAX[56.8]—AVG[43.7]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[37.0]—MAX[69.2]—AVG[53.1]

Peak wind gust 62mph at 8:50pm. Again, anemometer siting is unknown. Therefore data quality may be good or poor.

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

Comparison view

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Pics today-

Deep Creek Lake/McHenry to Bittinger area

Winds a blowin… .

After dark, some flakes flying as temps fell, but very limited overnight and changing to light freezing drizzle. Models blew this….

November 26, 2019

November 26, 2019

Nov 26(Tues)

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[24.2]—MAX[55.9]—AVG[40.0]—PRECIP[0]

Snowfall season to date 5.3″

Garrett College

MIN[29.4]—MAX[58.7]—AVG[44.0]—PRECIP[0]

Canaan Heights/DAVIS 3SE

MIN[29.5]—MAX[56.7]—AVG[43.1]—PRECIP[0]

Snowfall season to date 8.9″

CRN-CANAAN

MIN[29.5]—MAX[57.8]—AVG[43.6]—PRECIP[0]

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[36.0]—MAX[54.7]—AVG[45.3]—PRECIP[0]

Cabin Mt North/Dolly Sods west

MIN[38.8]—MAX[55.8]—AVG[47.3]—PRECIP[0]

Spruce Knob

MIN[36.3]—MAX[51.6]—AVG[43.9]—PRECIP[0]

Snowshoe

MIN[37.6]—MAX[52.2]—AVG[44.9]

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[13.6]—MAX[59.5]—AVG[36.5]

7Springs

MIN[43.3]—MAX[53.5]—[48.4]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[27.3]—MAX[63.6]—AVG[45.4]

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaans temperatures

RTMA

Radar

Void today

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

PICS TODAY-